Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-27 08:50:00

Constituency Profile


Barney, Rachel

Brown, Chester

Chow, Olivia

Innes, Christine

Lin, Nick

Siow, Gin

Olivia Chow

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • parkdale-high-park (3/189 Polls)
  • toronto-centre-rosedale (19/212 Polls)
  • trinity-spadina (185/202 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 The Jackal
    Even when NDP hovered around the single digits this was a winnable riding for them but with the orange surge in the polls while thinking this won't translate to a huge sweep of seats for the NDP on election day it will make most of the seats they already have a lot safer.This will be hold for Olivia Chow
    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    The problem for the Liberals here is Jack and Olivia are a team. She is very competent and independent and strong. And there are people who would not normally vote NDP who will vote for her because they think she might be part of a team living in Stornoway or 24 Sussex. That's a very different dynamic for the Liberals to get past then it was just 3 weeks ago.
    Although Chretien fired up the Liberal base the other night, the GOTV kings in this riding are the NDP and they are even more excited and motivated.
    NDP hold
    11 04 29 jeff316
    This one is tough. I'm connected to a number of party Liberals and even they generally admit that Chow is a better candidate than Innes, but there are a lot of dedicated Liberal voters in this riding and they could pull it through for Innes. Although I think the condo effect is overstated, there are more and more Liberal-friendly voters moving into an area that has a strong core of dedicated Liberal voters. I don't know that the 'NDP surge' (if it exists at all) helps Chow here. She's popular but her vote ceiling is limited and her appeal goes both ways. This could be one of the surprises of the election, particularly if the NDP does well in Québec.
    11 04 26 MGK
    I thought Chow had the edge from the beginning, but now I think she's completely safe. The NDP upswing may not be as pronounced in Ontario as elsewhere, but I still doubt any NDP incumbent is going down. Especially since in Trinity-Spadina there's long been a sense that faux-strategic voting cost the NDP votes. Now that they're running ahead of the Liberals nationally, that shouldn't be a factor any more.
    11 04 27 MF
    It's really time to move Trinity-Spadina into the NDP column. The NDP surge has come to Ontario (27% according to Angus Reid and 22% according to Ekos) and Olivia Chow will pick up lots of Green and Liberal (especially pro-Green Shift Liberals). It won't even close, Olivia could win by 10,000 votes. This will probably the end of the Ianno-Innes machine.
    11 04 26 Gee Jay
    As long as I've lived in this riding (about 15 years), one basic truth holds: you can not win this riding unless your name ends in A, E, I, O, U or sometimes ‘W’ as in the case of Madame Chow. This holds true municipally, provincially and federally. Unless you vote Orange-Green or Red, you don't stand a chance of affecting the outcome. Perhaps what's working against Madame Innes is a touch of anglo-saxo-phobia in the riding(?). The fix: a name change? ...just thinking out loud. PS - get out and vote anyway!
    11 04 27 initials - BEM
    I agree that Olivia Chow is having to run hard to keep her seat but I'd caution anyone against judging her chances by the number of signs visible. Lots of sign theft in my south Annex area (Harbord Village). My street hit at least twice so far, with several smaller signs and a big lawn sign disappearing in broad daylight this morning. At least no one's slashing tires this particular neighborhood, thank goodness.
    11 04 26 PY
    Welcome to those posting from out-of-town, first of all.
    Liberal collapse? I do not pretend one bit to understand the hipsters, but as sure as the goth scene in Toronto is alive and well, so are the Liberals. Their efforts certainly haven't been lost on a pair of my friends, who just so happen to fall on opposite ends of the political spectrum; one really had it out with Peggy Nash and has since been volunteering for Gerard Kennedy, and the other, a longtime Tory, finally broke away from the party that essentially betrayed her to vote Liberal for the first time in her life.
    That aside, Christine Innes is still out and about, as is Barney's sign crew. Chester Brown has his bit of name recognition. Gin Siow also manages to duck out for a quick bite now and then. As for Olivia? She's been in and out of the riding, as anyone who's familiar with her would expect, though her volunteers have certainly been hard at work despite her occasional absences.
    Those that I know in the riding haven't been as reluctant about her as they have been ever since I made the move from Windsor eight years ago and are seriously considering Innes, which is surprising to me. Now, where other posters have actually heard that it's not really the case is beyond me.
    Questions about incidents of vandalism in various ridings across the country and the viability of a few of the NDP's candidates in Quebec should also keep things interesting here...and if Montreal and Vancouver find themselves out of the NHL playoffs, look out! If you thought turnout at the advance polls was decent, May 2 (with apologies to Bob Cole) might end up being a doozy of a day!
    11 04 27
    It's mind - numbing that you still haven't called this one for the N.D.P. with all that is going on in the polls as of April 26th. That's all I have to say.
    11 04 25 DL
    With the NDP surge and the Liberal collapse this is now a 100% sure thing for Olivia Chow. The ONLY reason ANYONE even thinks of voting Liberal in this riding is this perception that the Liberals are the bigger party. Now that the NDP has passed the Liberals in the polls - the old ‘strategic vote’ for the Liberals will evaporate as people stampede to the NDP. It won't even be close.
    11 04 25 TOjohnw
    I am a constituent in T-S and a Chow supporter. Have been out canvassing for her a few times now and finding that wavering (Lib/NDP) voters' top issue is worry about Harper winning. As in the past three elxns, these voters are subject to strategic voting considerations as they try to calculate the best way to stop Harper. UNLIKE the past three elxns however, I detect a strong willingness, whether based on knowledge or not, to resist giving into the fear and instead to make a confident choice - for CHOW. Not all voters realize this is in fact the right way to keep a Tory out, though many do, but my point is that they Liberal fear-mongering in evidence in Innes' campaign (as in Ianno's before her) is having little impact this time around.
    That could all change by next week, of course, but for now there is a confidence in the riding that says 'I don't want to be afraid, I want to vote for Olivia'. Hence my prediction - she holds the riding.
    11 04 25 EH
    Given the polling trends and listening to the feedback from the constituents of this riding, it's time to mark this one as NDP. I live in the riding among all of the olivia chow signs and this is more hers that it was last time.
    11 04 24 abc
    The N.D.P. have momentum in Ontario and nationally now. They did not have the high level of support in Ontario, in 2008, which they now do, nor was Liberal support this LOW. If the N.D.P. won Trinity-Spadina then, I do not see how they could lose on May 2nd.
    11 04 23 cdnmarvel
    I see Olivia Chow out often in this riding. I also think that the popularity that Jack Layton is currently enjoying will have a large effect on the voting in this riding. I expect Chow to win by 2000 votes.
    11 04 23 DKE
    While there may have been an income shift in the annex towards the wealthy there are a couple of qualifiers to this. First, this shift is most pronounced in the eastern Annex (east of Spadina or east of St. George. This has never been great NDP territory historically anyway. Second, the part of the riding west of Bathurst towards Ossington has also gone through some demographic shifts. this area used to be very Italian and Portuguese. These populations tended to vote reflexively Liberal (at least Federally). Those populations are getting older and moving out. More NDP friendly voters are moving in. This in part explains why the NDP is more competitive neighboring Davenport. At the end of the day what will kill the Liberals in this campaign will be their weak national campaign. This is what killed them last time and it looks like it will do so again this time.
    11 04 22 MH
    No, Clarence, I'm not kidding. I owe my explanation to a couple of NDP supporters in the Annex who think that Chow is in a very close race. Perhaps they are wrong: May 2 will tell. But I think they may have at least some grounds for concern that your post does little or nothing to counteract. I drove through the Annex yesterday, east from Bathurst along Barton, Brunswick, Wells, and Kendal to Dupont and along Dupont to Avenue Road. I didn't do a count, but I was struck by the preponderance of Christine Innes signs (also the absence of signs for Gin Siow). Given how well-organized the Olivia Chow campaign is, I would expect sign support for her to be more evident.
    Of course signs don't vote, and in any case the Annex is in terms of population not a big part of T-S. But I think my informants have a point. I doubt that many leftist intellectuals have been moving into the Annex during the past decade. And although some well-to-do people vote NDP, most don't. As for the culture of a constituency: T-S's political culture is one of Liberal-NDP competition. In 1988 T-S went very narrowly NDP. In 1993 Tony Ianno won it easily, and from 1997 through 2004 he managed to beat off vigorous challenges from Chow and Michael Valpy before yielding it to Chow by 3,680 votes in 2006. In 2008 Chow beat Innes by just under 3,500 votes in what was not a good year for the Libs anywhere. Until recently it looked as if 2011 would be better for them; now the picture looks murky. But Jack Layton's recent surge in Quebec means little or nothing in T-S unless there is also an NDP surge in Ontario and T-S that holds through May 2. My best guess at this moment: Chow will probably hold T-S, but no one should be terribly surprised if Innes wins it instead.
    11 04 22 WAC
    With the rise of the NDP both nationally and in the Ontario polls - they should hold this riding by a comfortable, but not too large margin.
    11 04 21 Clarence
    M.H., you're kidding right? The Annex has had high property values for some time now and has nevertheless voted NDP. It's particular kind of high priced, avant garde self-styled intellectual elite that lives in the Anne. They vote their ideology, NDP. Other high priced, more conservative and less avant garde types spend their money to live in Forest Hill or Lawrence Park and vote Liberal. Different high priced folks live on the Queensway and vote Conservative.
    Besides with the NDP gathering the momentum they have now Chow should win even more easily than before. When a party has an excitement about them their supporters turn up in numbers. Gerrard Kennedy might be sweating, who knows maybe Mario Silva is too?
    11 04 21 Matt
    To add to the poll discussion - a new poll released today now shows the NDP sitting above 25%, and the Liberals barely holding on to 23%. Sure, the only reason the Libs numbers are above 20% is because of their base of support here in Ontario. However, looking at who has got the big MO', and who is quickly becoming the big NO, it's pretty easy to see the NDP holding onto this one
    11 04 21 Ryan
    More signs, more condos, wealthier neighbours, none of these arguments make a strong case for the Innes camp in T-S. Olivia Chow will hold this riding. The Liberals have very little momentum across Ontario, even in Toronto, and their base is not as loyal as they once were. Traditional Lib voters in T-S will probably stick with Chow as she is well known, well liked at least on a personal level, and still active in the community. I've spotted her on the street many times going about her business and engaging with everyday people. Also, the more people buzzing about Jack Layton as next Leader of the Opposition, the more it will help Olivia. I don't think the NDP are as vulnerable in Ontario as people think now that it's confirmed Michael Ignatieff is out of gas.
    11 04 21 WKB
    The Liberals believe that the condos are their key to this riding, because every new condo votes largely Liberal. What folk have not noticed is that it's only the brand new condos that vote Liberal. Once a building has been occupied for a few years, it starts to vote NDP.
    There is a gradual evolution. When a condo is new it's filled with new residents, most of whom have moved from one of the staunch Liberal ridings around the GTA. In their first election they continue to vote Liberal.
    After a few years, they get integrated into the local community. They get to know Olivia Chow, and her record both on council and as an MP. They also start caring about local issues like transit, housing, and the waterfront that the NDP are strong on.
    This riding will always be close, in part because of the brand new condos, but the ever growing number of mature buildings will keep this riding for Chow.
    11 04 20 MH
    A further inquiry into what may be happening in the Annex produced this explanation: in the 1960s and 1970s, academics and media people could afford Annex properties, and they tended (though by no means always) to support the NDP. Today house prices north of Bloor and east of Bathurst are often in excess of a million dollars, which puts them beyond the reach of almost all families with annual incomes below $200 or even 250K. This has political implications: as older Annex dwellers sell their houses, those who buy them will be wealthier and therefore more likely to support the Conservatives or Liberals than the NDP. People don't necessarily vote with their wallets in mind, but the tendency is there (a drive through Leaside or Lawrence Park will make the point.) I didn't see any Conservative signs on Kendal Avenue last week, but that may be the result of the weakness of the Tory organization in T-S. I did see more Liberal than NDP signs.
    11 04 20 DKE
    To the poster that was remarking on the number of Liberal signs on Kendal Ave. in the Annex. The Liberal candidate lives on that street. If she couldn't get the majority of her neighbours to put a sign up, she wouldn't have much of a chance. There are many more Tory signs up across the riding this time than last time. There seems to be a more robust Tory campaign this time than in previous federal elections. This may mean that the Tories will siphon off some votes from the Liberal candidate. This one will be close but the strong NDP national campaign should help Olivia. Also, there doesn't seem to be a strong stategic voting push from the Liberals this time. Although there is no strategic vote possible in Trinity Spadina since this is a two way Liberal-NDP race, this was a factor in Ianno's last win in 2004.
    11 04 19 Mark G
    I was knocking on doors in Maple Leaf Square this weekend, and was surprised to not meet a single individual who said they were voting NDP. If Christine can convince enough condo-dwellers to actually vote, this one is a lock for her.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    Angus Reid is the only pollster that has the NDP so high, so it raises some questions about its validity, but there's no doubt that over the past week Ignatieff has allowed Layton to take the momentum away from him. Ignatieff was on his way up, and now he has declined, with almost all of that decline going to the NDP. If Ignatieff wants to take away NDP seats in Ontario, he needs to pick up the pace over the next week.
    11 04 18 SouthpawPundit
    Angus-Reid has Liberals and NDP tied at 25, which raises some serious question as to whether or not the millions of tactical Liberal and BQ voters will go to the NDP this election rather than the other way around as has usually been the case. Either way, with the NDP wave that's currently building up, there's no way a two-term NDP incumbent is losing this riding, especially not a respected former city councilor who's married to the most popular party leader in Canada.
    11 04 17 PY
    Quite the opposite...condo residents (this thirty-something workaday goth notwithstanding) aren't as keen about the NDP (or Chow, for that matter) as its supporters believe, especially as the spectre of strategic voting has returned once again, with Alice Klein (of NOW Magazine and ‘Project Democracy’) making it quite clear that it may well be as necessary an option as ever.
    As well, there still exists a schism between NDPers and Greens, in which few from either side ever cross over into the other's camp. I did manage to see Rebecca Barney's sign crew not too long ago on my way to my new tailor on Harbord; a loose yet dedicated bunch, I have a feeling that they'll see things through until the end of the campaign, whereas doubters amongst the Greens could lean more towards the Liberals if the fear of a Harper majority becomes apparent in the campaign's final days.
    11 04 17 R.O.
    I just don't see Jack Layton's wife Olivia Chow losing this riding , it will likely stay ndp but not by a huge margin . layton likely saved a few ndp seats because of his debate performance and attack on iggy's house attendance record . although riding may eventually vote liberal at some point down the road but this election seems less likely.
    11 04 17 MH
    Yesterday my wife and I drove along Kendal Avenue in the Annex and were surprised to see more Innes than Chow signs. Last evening we dined with a couple who have long been active in the T-S NDP. They confirmed that Liberal signs are up and NDP signs down in the Annex, and they're worried about the implications of this and of the condos that have gone up near the Lakeshore since 2008. They're still hoping for a Chow victory but say the outcome will be very close. I'll go along with them and shift this to TCTC.
    11 04 17 Intials
    The recent municipal elections show that Trinity-Spadina is very progressive, but not necessarily loyal to either the Libs or the NDP. In 2006, Ward 20 went to Adam Vaughan, and not to the NDP-endorsed candidate. Last year in Ward 19, there were over 4,000 progressive votes cast for the second-place finisher, Karen Sun, and not for Jack Layton's son, Michael. The right-wing candidate, endorsed and assisted by the federal Liberal riding association, finished third. Given a choice between Olivia Chow and Christine Innes, these swing progressives will choose Chow.
    11 04 17 Jeff Sweeting
    Olivia is extremely popular, and will easily hang on to this riding. Not sure why folks seem to assume the condo vote leans heavily Liberal. They're often younger voters, and many will stick with Olivia.
    11 04 16 Condos Schmondos
    Condos are full of suburban kids (age 20-30) who don't vote. When they do vote, they're not as Liberal as everyone seems to think.
    Moreover, the Conservative candidate this time around seems to be hustling a little more than the last one. He has signs places I've never seen Conservative signs before. An increased Conservative vote hurts Innes. Lastly, this is the second time Innes is running and she lost last time. Excepting Chow, who herself lost to Ianno here more than once, people don't like to vote for losers.
    Chow wins, with slightly increased margin and with the Conservatives polling better than anyone expected.
    11 04 14 jeff316
    This is going to be a very close race, and have a significant impact on future election. The big challenge here is for Chow to hold this riding for one more election, until the riding gets redistributed and becomes more NDP-friendly again (demographically). If she can hold on, she'll likely have an easier run in the next election and become a reliable fixture. Will she do it? With an increase in the Liberal vote and a strong Green presence, I don't know if she'll be able to squeak it out.
    11 04 14 LKL
    Did a bit of a sign count yesterday. I was walking around Shaw between Davenport and Harbord (nice residential neighborhood). Counted 50 NDP, 47 Liberals, 8 Conservatives and 4 Green.
    11 04 12 Teddy Boragina
    3 factors place this in the Liberal column.
    1 - Condos. There are 15,000 new people in this riding living in condos, and they have never been NDP voters.
    2 - Polls. The Liberals have a larger lead over the NDP than they did on election day last time.
    3 - Ethnicity. The Conservatives are targeting ‘the ethnic vote’ which will hurt the NDP here more than the Liberals, as the NDP's candidate is ‘more ethnic’.
    11 04 11 initial
    Difference in this riding is that the NDP voters vote. They are much more loyal here than the Liberal voters are. That's why I think this is an easy call for Chow. I think the Liberals are simply too disorganized to grab this one.
    11 04 11 bza
    I know the Nanos numbers were exciting for Liberals, but I think the trend will be short lived. Already the numbers are going up again for the NDP and the Ipsos-Reid poll had the NDP at 19% nationally and 17% in Ontario, and with 3 weeks to go, there is a lot of fluidity in the polling.
    With Olivia Chow being the MP for 5 years now, the incumbency factor is much stronger for her as well. In the last race she was MP for only 2 years. She also has a much stronger profile then the Liberal candidate as she has been active in the community for two decades as City Councilor and the School Trustee before becoming an MP. While Innes is a party insider with no profile in the community.
    The condo development as a factor is also overplayed too I think. Their turnout is much lower then the residential areas of the riding which support the NDP more often. The voter turnout rate in condos is also lower and tend to actually house a lot of professionals who work in the financial sector that are nationals from other countries. While Chow may loose a few polls here and there, she certainly still has been getting lots of support instead of none, so the condo vote won't exactly lead her to defeat.
    11 04 09 Tyson
    A) Liberals are way up in Ontario
    B) NDP are way down in Ontario
    C) This area is gentrifying quickly, reducing the NDP vote base which is based in poorer communities.
    D) Christine Innes has greater name recognition with every time she runs while Olivia Chow is seeming tired.
    E) Toronto as a whole is shifting rightward which in this riding would mean changing a NDP vote to the Liberals.
    Outcome: Close, but Christine Innes pulls out a narrow victory.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    NDP is sinking in the province and moving to the Liberals who are up 9% over their 2008 numbers according to Nanos (5.7% margin).
    Liberals candidate Innis is a repeat of last time so maybe run a stronger campaign.
    11 04 09 binriso
    Oddly enough, even with the NDP potentially losing a ton of votes in Ontario I could still see them keeping this seat, after all they were competitive in 1997-2000 when they polled in the single digits in Ontario and they have a well-known incumbent. There is literally no point in voting strategically here as the Conservative candidate will not get much more than 15 percent while more of those votes will come from the Liberals if people change their mind. And after all the NDP have only 2 seats in Toronto so theyd better keep the foothold they have now. And a Green campaign that isnt as vigorous nationally due to exclusion from the debates will help the NDP more so than other parties.
    11 04 08 MF
    For some reason people put more faith in Nanos than any other pollster because he got lucky and called it in 2006. But if we're going to go with the best track record nowadays, it is definitely Angus Reid. The Angus Reid has the NDP at 19% in Ontario. Not that I am saying AR is the last word in polling, but Nanos is the only pollster showing this big downward trend (and with nightly polling we'll be seeing the numbers bounce all over the place).
    As for the race in Trinity-Spadina, it's true that the NDP's share of the vote, but so did the Liberals. The main beneficiary of the NDP were the Greens, while the drop in the Liberal vote benefitted the Conservatives. The Green vote will almost certainly be lower this time, which benefits Olivia Chow. It's hard to say what will happen to the Tory vote - they are running a Chinese candidate with a semi-serious campaign (by T-S standards). If he gains any traction in the Chinese community, that will almost certainly at the expense of the Liberals. On the other hand, there's really only a few points (in the condos) that can go back to the Libs. The real wild card here is the Annex - where going against the grain, there was a surprise ‘creative class’ swing towards the Liberals. Likely this demographic actually quite liked Stephane Dion's carbon tax proposal. A.S. asks whether Ignatieff will be a professorial plus or hawkish minus among this demographic. Hard to say, but in the end I think Olivia will come up on top...
    11 04 08 Clarence
    The loss of NDP support in Ontario surely represents NDP voters shifting strategically to the Liberals to stop Harper. (Something Harper invited them to do with all his ‘reckless coalition’ talk in the first week of the election.) The Conservatives can't win Trinity-Spadina and my sense is that the effect of the pro-coalition vote shift towards the Liberals in Ontario will have a much more profound affect on seats where the NDP splits the centre left vote, not seats where they win -- such as T-Spadina. The shift is amongst voters who supported Chretien and even Martin, but who were turned off by Dion, who are now returning to the NDP upon learning that Ignatieff is not nearly inept as Dion was.
    Besides, Chow is the incumbent twice over and she works this riding like you wouldn't believe.
    11 04 08 WAC
    This week the Liberals have been trending above their 2008 Ontario numbers and the NDP trending below theirs. If that trend continues, the this is a prime target for a pick up for the Innes and the Liberals. TCTC at this point.
    11 04 08
    The support of the NDP in Ontario has collapsed from 23% down to 11%(Nanos)..This seat is now lost.
    11 04 08 ACH
    Nanos has had the NDP fall in Ontario for five straight days. They're now looking solidly under 15%; if today's numbers are believable, at 11%!. With the Liberals having stabilized in the GTA Innes doesn't look like she needs to worry about losing votes to the right, and she only has to pull about 1 800 from Chow to win.
    11 04 08 DL
    The NDP seems to be on the upswing nationally. Olivia Chow has had almost three more years to establish her profile and serve the riding. The Ianno machine gets weaker every year that neither Tony Ianno nor his wife are the MP for the riding. Look at how Ianno threw EVERYTHING he had at trying to defeat Mike Layton for city council in the same area - and Layton beat the Liberal candidate for city council by a 2-1 margin. On top of all that - part of the reason why Olivia Chow's vote % dropped from 2006 to 2008 was that the Greens went from 4% to 11% and most of that was from people who would otherwise have voted NDP. The guy who ran a very active campaign for the Greens in '06 and who was actually quite credible and undoubtedly siphoned off a lot of NDP votes was going to run again. However, he kept criticizing Elizabeth may and the party dumped him as candidate. Instead the Greens are just running a last minute paper candidate who has no campaign at all. The Green vote will collapse back to low single digits and the NDP will be the main beneficiary of that.
    11 04 06 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Given a number of factors, including university students being absent, Liberal '08 sit-outs coming out to vote, a close race in the past and an Ontario-wide switch of NDp support to the liberals, we can easily see this one being a Liberal pick up.
    11 04 04 Initial
    Just to clarify the facts about condo results: In the 2008 election Innes beat Chow with about 5800 votes to 5300 in the 400-series polls, those are the poll numbers for condos throughout the riding. That's a 500 vote gap in a election Innes lost. Imagine if all the liberals who stayed home in '08 because they didn't like Dion (probably a few thousand in Trinity-Spadina) show up this time? Some more facts: The liberals got 5000 fewer votes in '08 here than they did in '06, similar to the national trend of liberals staying home. Bad news for Chow is that she also got 4000 fewer votes in '08 than in '06. If those Liberals come back, added to the increased condo population where the margin of victory is fairly good for the Liberals, Chow will lose this riding.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    Every election Chow seems to be predicted to lose, that won't happen again in this election.
    11 04 03 JT
    Christine Innes will win this election. She started late in 2008 and on election day she was only 4% behind Olivia Chow. She has not stopped working since 2008 and she got off to a fast start this time. The condo vote is the single biggest threat to the NDP. Federally and provincially, the NDP does not hold a single seat in the GTA where there are a significant number of condos, except for Trinity-Spadina. There are relatively few condos in Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York and Parkdale-High Park. WAC calls the condo argument a myth but has no facts to support this. WAC is wrong. Frustrated certainly, and wrong. NDP candidates get votes in condos, but they don't do as well as they do in other polls. Examine Trinity-Spadina results and you will see I am correct. This election is, and likely will continue to be, a polarized race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Ask people if they want 5 more years of Harper and you get one of two answers. A loud yes or a loud no. And the NDP gets lost in the question. My final observation is this - take a look at the last 30 years of general elections in Trinity-Spadina. Every single election where a Liberal was elected in Trinity-Spadina the Liberals formed the government in Ottawa. Every single general election where an NDP was elected resulted in a Conservative government. Enough voters in Trinity-Spadina will realize that electing an NDP MP helps Harper that I am certain that Christine Innes will win. If the NDP figures out how to be less marginal in this election, and I doubt they can, then I may change my prediction. But right now I am pretty sure Christine Innes will be elected by roughly 1,400 votes.
    11 04 03 SC
    Olivia Chow's ground work will give her the edge once again. Though I do think the added condo population will narrow the gap a bit. But overall, good voter turnout in this riding will give the NDP this seat by at least 2000 votes in my opinion.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    This is my riding and so far it seems to be favouring the NDP since as much as I would like to see Olivia Chow go down in defeat, I would give her the edge. At the same time, most of the growth is in the waterfront condos which generally favour the Liberals. The only problem is the Tories usually come in second here so at this point leans NDP, but certainly winneable amongst the Liberals.
    11 04 02 WAC
    Another person propagating the myth that the Liberals win the condo polls by Lake Ontario. Now I'm not saying the NDP doesn't finish third in some of those polls. I'm saying when you do an aggregate of all the condo polls in and around Queens Quay - the NDP has a slight edge mirroring the trend in the riding. Anyways, I want to pull back a little from my last prediction - Liberals are up and NDP are down a little in Ontario. The current polling numbers still favour the NDP in this riding by roughly the same results as last time - 4,000 votes/6%.
    11 04 01 Annexois
    Olivia still lets her constituents know that she's around through mailings and in the media.
    Last election, Olivia won this seat while even taking some time to accompany Jack Layton across the country.
    Although not a cakewalk, this should stay NDP.
    11 04 01 CGD
    I totally disagree with some of these other posts. Looking at results in the condo polls, especially those by the Lake Ontario waterfront, the NDP comes third behind the Conservatives in many of those areas. Northern part of the riding will be a tough fight between Chow & Innes as always. Southern part (condos) will go to Innes, NDP will be fighting the Conservatives there for second place. The fate of this riding will likely mirror the national result. If the Liberals win here, look for a Liberal government in Ottawa.
    11 03 31 Jimmy
    I live in the riding and I'm pretty confident that Olivia will keep her seat. particularly where I live in Chinatown lawn signs are not really an indicator of who someone is really voting for Innes came around the other day and most people were just too nice to say no to putting one up same goes for Olivia as well. I think the challenge for Innes will be to get her voters to the poll. I feel like Olivia's supporters are quite loyal and would get out to vote for her and Innes appears to only show up during election time. Olivia is out in the riding regularly enough to make it seem like she's active in the riding even before she was an mp. but she used to be this riding's local city councillor which covers most of its federal counterpart.
    11 03 30 WAC
    There is a myth that persists with respect of this riding that drives me nuts - the myth that people who live in condos in this riding vote Liberal and that because more condos are being built in this riding it will go Liberal. I would encourage everyone to actually look at the polling data from Trinty-Spadina... the ‘Condo’ polls mirror the trend in the rest of the riding - they lean NDP since 2006 and they leaned Liberal in 2004. I have some theories as to why that is - none of which is particularly relevant to this discussion - but suggesting that a) condos vote Liberal and b) more condos in the riding means this seat is going Liberal is simply not borne out by the actual **evidence**. Sorry.
    Judging by the boring old polling data, esp. the latest Nanos trendline poll which has the Liberals at 30% in ON down from 34% last election - and the NDP at 23% when they 18% last election, and past results in the riding. (I know evidence and data is not as sexy as wild speculation and audacious claims but if you want to actual predict something with some kind of accuracy its usually helpful). It looks like the NDP have made some gains, the Liberals have lost a bit - based on that I'd expect Chow to win by about 6,000 - 7,000 votes or 8-9%.
    11 03 30 Brian Yaeck
    This will be a close race as always, though I think Olivia Chow will win this race again for a few reasons. The NDP campaign seems to be off to a stronger start in the campaign and in putting up signs. The recent municipal win by Mike Layton shows that the progressive vote is still going strong in the traditional NDP strongholds in the riding.
    As for the condo people, just because they live in a condo doesn't necessarily mean they are Liberal voters. A lot of the people residing their are young university educated professionals who vote for progressive urban elected Representatives and many will vote for the NDP.
    11 03 29 PY
    Well, as it turns out, Chow's campaign office is now across the street from the ever-popular Lee Garden restaurant; as such, it's as clear a sign as ever that Chow is fiercely determined to retain her seat.
    Another key to victory will be those monoliths in the sky (of which I've since moved into, and weirder still, it's along the easternmost point of the riding - thanks to redistribution - on Bay Street) and its denizens, who come from anywhere and everywhere, yet largely lean Liberal. With most of them preferring to stay at home in the last election, Innes could be poised to win them over this time around, and thus get over the hump.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    Ignatieff and the Liberals made this one of their first stops of the campaign tour today. The media did a profile of the riding on t.v. and talked about its history between the Liberals and the NDP. They interviewed a couple of Chinese voters in Chinatown who said they had voted NDP last time and were going to vote Liberal this time. Whether or not that is representative of a larger trend is too soon to tell.
    11 03 28 WAC
    Again MH as I pointed out earlier I think you're overemphasizing the student issue. The U of T polls went mostly Liberal. Consequently, Innes is as likely if not more likely to suffer from lack of volunteers from student population as a result. I don't think it will have any impact on the number of volunteers for either party nor do I think it will impact the race. Also I think its worth pointing out since this is one of five competitive races in the city(the others being Parkdale-High Park, Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, York Centre), neither party should have trouble getting volunteers from all over the city.
    11 03 28 MH
    Now that the writ has been dropped, it is possible to assess the interaction between the academic year and the election campaign. The teaching term at the U of T ends April 7, and by that time term papers will have fallen due. The exam period extends to April 21, the day before Good Friday. Until that day the great majority of students will be per-occupied. To the extent that the NDP depends on students for its campaign, there are two issues: 1) Until the final 10 days many students will not be available or available only intermittently. 2) Residence students, typically the most active students on campus, will mostly have left the campus by Easter. These issues probably matter more than how many U of T students are actually eligible to vote in Trinity-Spadina.
    Key to a closely-fought local campaign is the availability and dedication of volunteer workers. If Olivia Chow's campaign is impaired by the issues I mentioned, and I think it will be, she is likely to lose a tight race. Data about country- or even province-wide support for the Liberals and NDP are largely irrelevant when considering an individual campaign like this. Right now this is probably too close to call, but if I were a gambler I'd take the odds and put my money on Christine Innes.
    11 03 27 John
    It may not be a safe seat, but Chow does have the incumbent's advantage. She's now served as the riding's MP for a couple of terms now.
    Throw in the fact the Liberals, on the whole, are polling a lot lower than they have traditionally--low 20% range right now.
    Further, NDP leader Jack Layton is seen, according to some poll numbers I read in today's paper, as a better candidate for Prime Minister than Michael Ignatieff. Popularity of the party leader can have some effect on how voters vote at the riding level simply because a vote for the local candidate is a proxy vote for the party leader as well.
    A lot can happen in the next five weeks, but at the moment, I think Chow will squeak in for a third term.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals are targeting this riding, and Liberal MP Rob Oliphant has given his former campaign manger to Christine Innes to help her beat Olivia Chow.
    This will be a close race, but I think for the moment it is leaning towards the NDP. The Liberals have a shot here, but in order to get that final few thousand votes to put them over the top they need to raise the Liberal numbers in Ontario, and they haven't done that yet. We will have to see if the Ontario polls go up enough to favour the Liberals.
    11 03 26 odude22
    My friend below is mistaken. Students living in dorms and residence on Campus do NOT become voters of the riding the University is in. They vote in their home riding. Only students living off campus become voters for that riding. A majority of UofT students live on campus and those that do live off campus - most of them will be sticking around for the summer, finding summer employment. UofT's presence makes little difference in this riding. This will be the same close race as last time, but Olivia will pull through and win - not by alot, but she will take this riding.
    11 03 26 WAC
    Couple of problems with MH's submission. 1) U of T is largely a commuter campus, percentage wise very few U of T students actually live in the area/riding. 2) The polls around the U of T mostly went to Innes last time, so if anything the U of T's term ending hurts the Liberals not the NDP.
    Judging by the polls and past voting practices, this should be a relative close race. Chow defeated Innes by about 4,000 votes last time, Chow defeated Ianno by about the same margin in 2006 and lost to an incumbent Ianno by less than 1,000 in 2004. There's been nothing in the polls or locally to suggest that this race would be any different. Leaning NDP now - but could go Liberal if things go well for them in the national campaign.
    11 03 24 MH
    With the U of T's term having ended by the time the election is held, Olivia Chow will lose an important source of votes and as a result should lose Spadina to the Liberals. The Conservatives are dead in the water here, and the Greens are largely irrelevant. How wide the Liberal margin of victory will be or whether Ms. Chow can manage somehow to hold on the constituency will depend chiefly on the effectiveness of the local campaigns.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Christine Innes is in many ways a great candidate for the Liberals. In many ways she's a more appealing personality than Ianno, while she naturally retains his absolute loyalty and therefore inherits his formidable machine. Chow's problem here will be the university. She's got a great organization on campus but that won't help her much if the election comes in May when the students have gone home.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    This riding reminds me of Ottawa West - Nepean - a race where the incumbent MP did not win by as large a margin as expected. Olivia Chow actually lost ground here in 2008, and dropped from 46% to 40% (the Liberals also dropped, from 40% to 35%). It was the Conservatives and Greens who increased their vote. It appears that the Greens took from the NDP and the Conservatives took from the Liberals.
    In any event, considering that Christine Innes was a last minute replacement when Tony Ianno dropped out without giving much of a reason, she performed pretty well. Now that the Liberals are much higher in the polls in Ontario than they were in 2008, this riding certainly is a possibility for them to win back. The fact that Chow lost 6% and only won by 3,500 votes is something Chow will need to keep an eye on. It is possible she may be able to get back some of the vote she lost to the Greens if they don't perform as well as in 2008, but if not she will have to watch out for the possibility of a Liberal re-capture.
    I give only a small advantage to Chow at the moment.
    09 12 06 David Y.
    You have to look back to the 1993 election to find when a two-term NDP M.P. lost to a Liberal. And the latest polls show the New Democrats nowhere near the low level of support they received in that election which cost them so many of their seats (including this one!) that time. Or the Liberals near the level of support they received on that occasion.
    Dan Heap held this seat for two elections after winning the Spadina by-election in 1981.
    Olivia Chow will be re-elected in this seat at least once more.
    NDP hold.
    09 11 18 binriso
    Yes and the resources that will be poured in here (by the Liberals mostly since I think they will lose) could’ve been used elsewhere to help prevent a Conservative majority.
    Obviously with Nash defeated by Kennedy and Layton fairly safe, the NDP will fight tooth and nail to protect their single vulnerable seat in Toronto and will win it by the same 3500ish vote margin. Can’t really see them losing.
    09 11 09 OgtheDim
    Well, with Furious George Smitherman now running for Mayor, the centre got very crowded. If John Tory or another right winger jumps into the race, I can't see Chow trying to split that vote.
    She's staying in this one and it will be the toughest GOTV ground game fight in Toronto. Baring a Liberal meltdown nationally, a lot of local Lib and NDP resources are going to flow into here, and in this city, that's two considerable arsenals that the Tories can only dream of weilding.
    09 10 23 PY
    Well, just when I thought I was safe to go on with my life without having to worry about whether there's to be another election or not, I recently received yet another Liberal ten-percenter, a householder from Chow and to my surprise, an NDP ten-percenter in her name.
    I believe there's a certain bit of fear of failure amongst the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives these days with regards to their parliamentary strategies, as failure on either of their parts could prove disastrous. Recent polls that have shown the Tories having a significant lead could very well turn sour and if that's the case, Green support could soften and already soft Tories may have to re-evaluate where they stand electorally. As well, I highly doubt that the NDP's support of the Conservatives will ultimately be tenable.
    As sure as a distraction that the HST is for the three major parties, I found it interesting that NOW Magazine recently speculated on the possibility of a mayoral run for Olivia Chow. Although one of her aides denied it, this could also serve to be a distraction not unlike that of the issue of her departure from Toronto's city council and the subsequent severance package/pension that she received a few years back.
    If indeed Chow believes that the national Liberal campaign will do everything it can to ensure that Christine Innes is able to re-take the seat, then perhaps vying for the mayoralty instead might be tempting for Chow. However, should she fail to put this rumour to rest once and for all, she'll surely be dogged with the question of whether her heart's still in it and as a result, she might swing the riding back into the Liberal column.
    09 10 19 Bailey
    This riding could start giving the winner with less than 35% support overall. The NDP will keep there core support in this riding, but they will win with a smaller percentage because the NDP wil get a smaller % of the vote from the new condo residents. I predict a slight increase in the vote share for the Conservatives and Greens which should lessen any gains that the Liberal receive from the new condo residents.
    09 10 09 TJ
    I checked into Nick's claim that condos are going up in the southern end of the riding and ?condos don't vote NDP?. In the last election and the election before that, Chow won most of the polls located in the Southern Part of the riding (not including the Island where she won by very large margins). And Ianno/Innes tend to poll better in the Northern end of the riding.
    So basically, Condos, at least in this riding, appear to vote NDP.
    09 09 27 Nick J Boragina
    I used to live in this riding.
    While the northern 9/10ths of the riding have not changed, the southern strip certainly has. More and more condos are going up, and in general, condos dont vote NDP. Add to that strong showings for the Liberals in the past few elections here, and the fact that the Liberals are far ahead of the NDP in the province. This riding should go back to the Liberals this election.
    09 09 26 Marco Ricci
    I agree with A.S. that Olivia Chow did not win by as large a margin as expected last year. Despite the fact that Christine Innes was a last minute replacement for Tony Ianno who decided not to run for some reason, she finished a very strong second. I think the riding leans slightly NDP right now because they are the incumbents and because the Liberals are not at full strength yet, but if the Liberals can regain ground in Ontario, they have chance of winning this riding back.
    09 09 18 MGK
    Olivia held onto a 3500 vote lead last time despite some terrible strategic decisions. She remains locally popular, and will most likely win again.
    09 09 17 MH
    The only certainty in TS right now is that the Conservatives will get buried again, whatever sacrificial lamb they decide to run. It's much too early to tell whether Olivia Chow will hang on by her fingernails or whether Christine Innes will just squeeze past her into first. In fact, this will probably be TCTC right up to election day, whenever it takes place.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    They laughed at Ianno's wife; but '08 proved to be a closer and scarier call than O'Chow had bargained on--but it wasn't because of relentless condo construction per se (where Chow still held her own vs the Grits, considering). Rather, the scare came from the unforeseen *other* end: the Annex green-shifting in a ‘Peggy Atwood Liberal’ direction as the upper tier of erstwhile NDP support found the party's anti-carbon-tax-and-whatever positioning too crass for comfort. (Maybe a ‘save Olivia’ emergency robbed NDP ballast in other Toronto seats, BEY and PHP not excepted?) Who knows if that trend'll hold in a post-Dion era; who knows whether Iggy's a professorial plus or a hawkish minus around these parts. But in the event that Olivia Chow loses or retires, either watch this riding get more and more remote from the NDP's grasp, or conversely, watch a new Liberty-Cityplace-St Lawrence condorific type of seat (cf. the new BC provincial seat of Vancouver-False Creek) absorb all the perma-Liberal energy...
    09 09 03 pollwerker
    As a liberal leaning person it bewilders me why races like this one and Ottawa-Center are allowed to suck up so much attention and resources while dozens of marginal ridings will be ignored. Chow is going to win this one anyway, although lots of people will still vote Liberal. Wake up and smell the Tories in Mississauga and Etobicoke.
    09 08 27 PY
    Christine Innes was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate here, thus setting the stage for round two against Olivia Chow, which could end up being a down, drag-out battle to be fought for the streets, neighbourhoods and condos throughout the riding. I received a Liberal ten-percenter a little while ago alongside the latest from Chow...now, although that may not mean much right now, I'm pretty sure that both camps are raring to go.
    What with Peggy Nash having been elected as the president of the federal NDP, I expect them to divert their resources away from Parkdale--High Park next door towards Trinity--Spadina in an effort to retain the seat. I also believe that the riding will be aggressively targeted by the Liberals. All in all, this will shape up to be one of the most exciting races in the country.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Chow has the good fortune of being married to her party leader. That always helps when it comes to devoting resources. However, she only won in '06 and '08 with roughly 3500 votes - not a great margin...she also lost in '04 to the Lib candidate. This is not a guaranteed hold for the NDP.
    11 04 28 TedBop
    Although I agree that Chow will hold onto this riding, I expect it to be close. While NDP support has surged nationally, the needle has barely moved in Ontario. The condo effect in this riding is real (just check the polling station results at the link below) but with Ignatieff's inability to connect and the apparent the Liberal meltdown, many of these voters will just stay home. Had the Liberals put on any sort of a meaningful campaign, or even if Ignatieff had the slightest modicum of charisma, this riding could have swung their way. As it stands, not this time.

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