Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Toronto Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:17:00

Constituency Profile


Falardeau, Judi

Fernandez, Philip

Holliday, Catherine

Michelson, Ellen

Moore, Kevin

Rae, Bob

Wallace, Susan

Yazdanfar, Bahman

Hon. Bob Rae

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • toronto-centre-rosedale (193/212 Polls)
  • st-pauls (3/223 Polls)
  • toronto-danforth (2/183 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26
    Kevin Moore is a red tory. Met the man a number of times and he's actually a lot like John Tory, or at least the John Tory behind the scenes who does a lot more for the community without people finding out.
    Nice guy. Been doing a lot, for years, for the residents in the massive Wellesley apartment complex area (most dense part of the country). Community oriented. Probably the first Tory candidate down here since Crombie who actually knows something about the riding (more then Bob Rae, I'd suggest). Respects the gay community (doesn't always agree with it but respects it, unlike most Tories, this Christian minister actually lives among people who disagree with him).
    If the Libs ever put a no name candidate in here, Moore might actually win. Won't beat Bob Rae though.
    11 04 17 mikeb
    The only question is by how much Bob Rae will win. The Conservatives get votes in the north end of the riding, but they really haven't been a threat since the Mulroney years ended. Plus PCs who won (Crombie and MacDonald) stressed Progressive part of PC.
    Susan Wallace will do better than her run in Willowdale last election, but if a well know candidate like Michael Shapcott couldn't pull in 25% for the NDP, I don't see how Wallace can.
    11 04 15 MF
    Regarding Teddy's point: the strongest PC areas pre-merger are also the strongest areas for the Conservatives today (i.e. north of Bloor) but it's really a moot point, as urban ridings like this now have a complete aversion to voting Conservative. Bob Rae is of course a shoo-in and will win all over the riding, so the real question is who will come second. I expect the NDP will return to its ‘official opposition’ position here, and take some of the Green vote from last time. However their vote is likely to be limited by the ‘Rae Democrat’ effect, so I don't expect them to hit Cathy Crowe or even Shapcott numbers.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more PC than it did Reform or Alliance. In 1993, the PC's took over 9% more than Reform, nearly 7% in 2000, and 12% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that any history the PC Party has in this area is meaningless to future projections.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    Bob Rae is 1 of 2 things: The next leader of the federal Liberals or the foreign minister in a coalition. All those things add to his likelihood of re-election.
    11 04 03 wellesley east
    This seat will definitely go to Bob Rae by a wide margin of victory, at least 20% over the 2nd place candidate, since Rosedale goes Liberal, and Bob Rae has name recognition and is a potential future Liberal leader.
    Though, I do expect the Conservatives and NDP to both increase their vote share somewhat.
    I'll be especially interested to see how the Susan Wallace, the NDP candidate does. In the recent municipal election Kristyn Wong-Tam managed to get elected in one of the wards within the boundaries of the federal riding, who has been a member of the NDP in the past and is a strong progressive.
    There has also been a great deal of activism regarding public housing lately as there are fears of privatization. Although its a local issue, the lack of a national housing strategy federally will energize the NDP base in St. James Town, Regent Park, other TCHC housing, and co-ops in the riding. Although the NDP will not likely win, I expect to see a significant improvement in the NDP turnout in this election and finish a strong 2nd.
    11 03 29 MH
    Once upon a time David Crombie practically owned this when the riding was called Rosedale. But Crombie was a Progressive Conservative of the ‘Red Tory’ kind: socially concerned, with a strong sense of noblesse oblige. That does not exactly describe Stephen Harper's Conservatives, and as a result they have little traction here today, competing with the NDP for second place. Represented by the high-profile Bob Rae, this seat is an easy Liberal hold unless the sky falls before May 2.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    In contrast with the other waterfront ridings, this includes the wealthy area of Rosedale which obviously won't go NDP, while outside Rosedale the Conservatives generally run in the single digits, thus easy Liberal win. Besides Bob Rae could very well be the next Liberal leader if Ignatieff resigns after the election so even making a Liberal loss less likely.
    11 03 27 WAC
    This was historically a bellwether riding. It was former mayor and cabinet minister David Crombie's old federal seat. What's more there are neighbourhoods in the riding like Rosedale and Yorkville which are amenable to voting for a moderate Conservative. But its a since the re-ordering of Canadian politics in 1993, its a pretty safe Liberal seat. Doesn't hurt to have a high profile MP like Bob Rae running for you either.
    09 09 14 Brian A
    I think Rae has definitely overcome his past and become a spectacular asset for the Liberal Party. He's smart, articulate, worldly and progressive. With him as the MP, TC went from an iffy Liberal-leaning seat, to a red fortress.
    09 09 01 MF
    I think I'm wasting bandwith by chiming in here...this once competitive seat is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. The Tory brand is now toxic in TC, while Rae has no problem in terms of getting the bulk of Liberal/NDP swing voters.
    09 09 01 A.S.
    Rae dazed: the biggest flap here in '08 was over a rogue blogger Tory candidate who had to be tossed out and quickly replaced--and his quickie replacement bluffed into second place, anyway! (Ah, so the NDP *wasn't* enshrined as the new second-place force here, after all.) And that's waaay back in the pack. Psephologically speaking, Bob Rae's now a red-toned Lee Richardson or Jim Prentice--yeah, it's tough, but...
    09 08 24 MJA
    Do I even have to tell you that Bob Rae is safe? Expect a token campaign from a token moderate Conservative and not much else. The Greens might do okay, but they won't come close.

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