Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Timmins-James Bay

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:19:00

Constituency Profile


Angus, Charlie

Bennett, Lisa

Greenberg, Bill

Wood, Marilyn

Charlie Angus

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • timiskaming-cochrane (95/186 Polls)
  • timmins-james-bay (127/185 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    Charlie Angus. Definite cabinet minister if the NDP becomes the governing party. That barber poll and the newspapers polls have all been a joke. Angus will win big time. Some websites are predicting he will get between 60-65% of votes. My prediction is Angus 58%, Wood 22%, Greenberg 19%, Bennett 1%.
    11 04 27 John K.
    Might not be as big of a landslide as we thought.
    Roger Pickard, a local barber in Timmins who conducts polls every election in the riding, and who has been right 33 out of 35 times, is showing a Conservative win.
    I still think this will go NDP, but by a much smaller margin than I had previously thought.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    Don't know if I buy the Angus as the next leader of the NDP thing (Think that's either going to be Peter Julian or Paul Dewar), that said Angus will hold this riding.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    My home electoral district. Definitely safe for Angus. The gun registry will not have much of an impact at all. We had an MP in the past, Liberal Reg Belair who supported it and it never hurt him at all. I actually volunteered for Reg Belair when the Liberals were in government and he told me that most people here actually support it. Most women and younger people here have no problems with it. It is only a vocal few who make it seem as though almost everybody is upset. Most people in Timmins are not hunters. Charlie Angus has a lifetime lock on TJB. Nobody will defeat him until he retires. The Liberal candidate is not well known and this is one of the weakest places for Conservatives.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    The next leader of the NDP isn't losing his riding anytime soon, though the Conservatives will see a bump from the gun registry vote (that sort of thing warms the hearts of those cranky rural Temiskaming voters.)
    11 03 31 C.A.B.
    The safest NDP riding in Ontario. Charlie Angus has often been mentioned as Jack Layton's Heir Apparent, and since this is likely Layton's last run as leader, perhaps this seat will have a more prominent representative next time around...
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has been a pretty safe NDP riding save when they have dropped to single digits in Ontario, which is unlikely to happen this time around. Despite the unpopularity of the gun registry, the Tories are so weak here that I have a tough time believing that large a share of the population will vote Tory based on just the one issue.
    11 02 04 John
    Charlie Angus will easily win this seat again. Both Charlie Angus, and the riding's MPP Gilles Bisson will ‘benefit’ from the closure of the local Kid Site, as they fought aggressively for the community through the hard times. The liberals, the only other party with any kind of chance here, lost any hope when Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty did absolutely nothing to help the community cope with the loss of 2,000 direct and indirect jobs associated with the Kid closure. I don't think the Liberals will gain back any of the Northern Ontario seats the lost, in fact, I think in the 2011 Ontario election, they'll also see considerable loses.
    11 01 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The Conservatives are targeting this riding...Seriously?!? They either have a lot of money to waste or they think those of us that live in the north really, really, really love our guns and despise those who voted for the gun registry. Charlie Angus is very popular, very visible and his vote share reflects that. Truthfully there is probably another strategy here. We think the CPC is trying to force the NDP to reallocate resources to places they otherwise would not have needed to; taking the NDP off the offensive in places like Oshawa and Kenora, while weakening the NDP defences in places like Sault Ste Marie.
    09 11 14 A.S.
    From his sweet victory in Jack Layton's bittersweet maiden election of 2004, Charlie Angus has evolved into Ontario's nearest equivalent to ?grand coalition? Maritime New Democrats a la Peter Stoffer, Yvan Godin, Jack Harris. At this rate, he might as well forego campaigning in his own turf on behalf of helping ex-bandmate Andrew Cash in Davenport...
    09 09 10 NJam101
    My home riding. TJB will re-elect Angus. There is no doubt about it. He received about 56% of the votes last election. Angus now has a lifetime lock meaning that nobody will beat him until he retires. This is the same provincially with NDP MPP Gilles Bisson. The only way I could see TJB voting Liberal is if somebody like Trudeau was party leader and there was a HUGE wave of support across the country. But that won't happen these days. The Conservatives will never win here as the demographics do not help in any way. This is one of the top three strongest (and safest) NDP seats in my opinion.
    09 08 26 Observer
    This riding voters will reelect Charlie Angus easily. Northern Ontario last time voted overwhelming for the NDP, and with the forest industry crisis the NDP is going to improve its vote share.
    09 08 26 DL
    Charlie Angus keeps winning by bigger and bigger margins. This is now a supersafe NDP seat.

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