Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Scarborough-Rouge River

Prediction Changed
2009-08-30 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Balack, Mark

Gallyot, Marlene

Sarkar, Rana

Singh, George B.

Sitsabaiesan, Rathika

Derek Lee

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • scarborough-rouge-river (150/174 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01
    Layton is coming into this riding to reap the harvest..This will be a NDP pick up..and a shocker.
    11 04 30 The Jackal
    Even withour Derek Lee this seat will remain strongly Liberal red on election day.
    11 04 24 SP
    Liberals will wake up to a rude awakening in this riding. The well respected Derek Lee is gone, and a lot of Liberals who are upset with how the liberal nomination was handled now supporting NDP. Rathika is running a very effective campaign...if there will be an upset in TO...it must be in Scar-RougeRiver.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    Even in a massive NDP surge in Ontario, this is a riding the NDP would not even come close to winning.
    11 04 23 Not Non-Partisan
    Note to MH: Iggy's results are worse than Dion's. Anybody could win without Lee on the ballot although the CPC candidate in not well-organized. I would not at all be surprised by an NDP win here.
    11 04 16
    I live in this area loads of ethnic vorters in this riding and have no incumbant this tamil candiadate well known figure among the riding over 40% of the votes come from sri lankan tamil votes I am quiet ssure this a turning point for scarborough
    11 04 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Wasn't there similar musings that Scarb-SW would flip with Tom Wappel's retiremant back in '08? No, Scarb-RR will once again go Liberal but in a closer race.
    11 04 05 MH
    People calling this seat for the NDP are dreaming in technicolor. Even in 2008, when the Liberal campaign was burdened with Stéphane Dion, the NDP got less than 15% of the popular vote and came in a distant third. Derek Lee had almost 59% of the vote. The Conservatives were beaten by more than 14,000 votes, the NDP by almost 18,000. Some of this huge gap was due to Derek Lee's personal popularity, of course, but since Michael Ignatieff has been running a better campaign than Dion it seems extremely unlikely that this seat will go anything but Liberal in 2011, no matter who the party's candidate may be.
    11 04 05 SD
    Last election, the Liberals spent $62,814 but lost 6,565 votes from their previous campaign. The Conservatives spent $76,083 and lost 266 votes. The NDP only spent $1,836 and yet gained an extra 981 votes from their previous total. The Liberal incumbent is no longer running. The Conservative candidate is just getting off the ground. The NDP candidate, Rathika Sitsabaiesan, had a significant head start and has been campaigning locally for over a year. She has close connections with both Jack Layton and the local Tamil community and is running a well-funded, if not fully-funded, campaign. Her team is visible, highly organized, identifying supporters and, most importantly, informing them how they can register and vote. Rouge River was virtually tied for the lowest voter turnout in Ontario (47%) in 2008, so there could be a dramatic change if the NDP gets out the vote. And with a well funded and extremely organized campaign, it's very likely the NDP will be able to get their supporters to the polls. If the NDP continues to make gains here and eventually establishes a beachhead, it's very likely that Rathika's campaign will serve as model for how other NDP campaigns are conducted when a wave of Liberal incumbents begin to retire across the rest of Scarborough.
    11 04 01 GW
    Without Derek Lee, a Member of Parliament who listened to the views of his constituents and voted against his own party in several controversial bills, I am not certain that the Liberals will be able to hold this riding. The main reason why he, and all the Federal Scarborough Liberals, held on to their seats for so long is because they were all backbenchers. They were quiet. They did not do anything great, but they also did not do anything scandalous. Plus, as I said before, in Bills of great interest to the constituents, who rose to the occasion by sending in letters and petitions, the Scarborough MPs listened and voted accordingly, as it ought to be, as a representative of the people.
    However, the recent election of our current Mayor and the growing discontent with the Provincial Liberals leads one to wonder whether this riding, and other ridings in the suburbs will be safe.
    No, it ought not to affect the Federal election, and yet it will. The reason is quite simple. Other than those who are already die-hard Cons/Libs/NDP/Greens/Other, the rest of us vote according to the imminent situation (i.e. economy), whether we like the person who is going to be at the helm, etc.
    Right now, the people of Toronto voted in Mayor Ford. Apparently we like/trust him enough. Would that translate into votes for the Conservatives? I am not sure. At the same time, it is not going to be an easy ride for the Liberals anymore without Derek Lee.
    11 04 01 Nick Patrick
    Derek Lee's resignation could be a game changer. While the Liberals may still hold, don't be surprised to see Rathika Sitsabaiesan pose a strong challenge. She has been working the riding hard for the the last year and a half.
    11 03 29
    Derek Lee has suddenly quit as MP..Can the LIberals hold on to this seat without Lee?
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    As a riding that is 89% visible minority and over 75% born outside Canada, this is a microism of these two groups vote. Considering past results this will probably be another massive win. Even with Tory inroads amongst immigrants, it will be nowhere near enough to even make this riding competitive.
    11 03 28 Marco Ricci
    Former Derek Lee aide, and former President of the Canada-India Council, Rana Sarkar, has been announced as the new Liberal candidate. Since Scarborough voted solidly Liberal in the last election, one assumes it will stay Liberal this time, even without Derek Lee, and even if the Liberals lose ground to the Conservatives in other areas of Toronto. The fact that Sarkar already knows the riding since he was Lee's assistant should be an advantage, and the fact that the Cons weren't expecting a retirement probably means they aren't very organized here to mount a major challenge. But the Liberals could still see their numbers decline here without the incumbent.
    11 03 28 R.O.
    Even though Derek lee isn't running again this one likely stays liberal. its still likely there safest seat in scarborough and one of the most ethnically diverse ridings ever .
    not really sure who the main candidates be that is still being determined . but its not likely to become a major tory target seat at this time as there focused on nearby Ajax Pickering instead.
    11 03 26 ScarboroughVoter
    Incumbent MP Derek Lee announced his retirement from politics. The Liberals will discuss nominating a candidate today.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    Even against the black hole of the Green Shift, the Liberals scored in every single poll--yeah, I was fooled by that clutter of Jerry Bance signs in a new subdivision at Finch + Middlefield. (Heck, judging from their surprise near-15% result, don't be surprised if the NDP takes advantage of Malvernish or Tamil-Tigerish ethnic/underclass angst en route to 2nd, instead.)
    09 08 28 JJ
    This is one of the safest Liberal strongholds in the Scarborough region. It's one of those ‘run a sheep and they'd still win’ ridings. Liberal hold.

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