Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Scarborough Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-09-05 11:11:00

Constituency Profile


Cannis, John

Hundt, Natalie

James, Roxanne

Ng, Ella

John Cannis

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • scarborough-agincourt (23/176 Polls)
  • scarborough-centre (151/215 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 06 MH
    Roxanne James is taking her third shot at this riding. As she barely managed to take 30% of the popular vote in 2008, when a lot of Liberals stayed home (the Dion factor), she is unlikely to win this time around. The NDP is not in the picture, so an easy victory for John Cannis should be the result.
    11 04 01 Jason H
    I mentioned in my post in '09, it would take a miracle for the conservatives to take Scarborough Centre. I still think that is the case in this riding. I don't think there is one issue that is driving in the area. All the candidates that ran in '08 remain the same in this one. Unless James runs a very good campaign and pulls out a upset, Cannis should take this one by a more comfortable margin than in '08.
    11 04 01 Tony Ducey
    I think it would take a superstar candidate for the CPC to win any of the Scarborough ridings. Roxanne James is not it.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Like the other Scarborough ridings, this is solidly Liberal. The question is by how much they will win, not whether they will win or not.
    09 09 11 Jason H
    This riding was actually closer, than the other scarborough ridings in the last election. Fewer people voted for John Cannis and more for Roxanne James, some just decided to stay home. Either way this riding will stay liberal regardless whoever is running. It would take a miracle for a conservative win, it will be a boring election in the scarborough area.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    Last time, I offered: ‘Alarm bells if John Cannis sinks noticeably under 50%’. Is 48.7% ‘noticeably’ enough? Probably not. (Yet interestingly enough, Roxanne James actually *won* the 600-level advance polls, so Cannis *may* have been in more trouble than we bargained on. I wouldn't bet on it now, though.)

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