Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Prince Edward-Hastings

Prediction Changed
2011-02-02 17:05:00

Constituency Profile


Hickey, Tim

Kramp, Daryl

Larkin, Patrick

McMahon, Michael

Skinner, Andrew

Tinsley, Peter

Daryl Kramp

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hastings-frontenac-lennox-and-addington (74/221 Polls)
  • prince-edward-hastings (168/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 28 T M
    Daryl Kramp didn't have an easy time of it at the all candidates debates. The riding is definitely his to lose.
    11 04 15 Neal
    this is my home riding and if lawn signs in Belleville were a true barometer, I would say that Liberal peter Tinsley would be headed for a victory.. Trouble is, lawn signs don't vote, and the Liberals are working with a candidate who had to step in at the last minute when Ken Cole stepped aside. Cole had worked hard to lay the groundwork prior to 2008, and failed to move the ball forward. He was also the only candidate who knocked on my door. If Ken Cole couldn't do it in 2008, Mr Tinsley won't in an equally adverse year for the Grits. I think Daryl Kramp holds witha a 10% margin of victory.
    11 04 03 Mark K.
    Kramp has a good head start but everyone I know is fed up with his spamming of lawn signs on public property. I swear, drive around Belleville, 80%+ of his signs aren't even on lawns. It's distracting and annoying. Not sure how much of a difference it makes though. The Green candidate also backed out to support Tinsley.
    11 03 31 Jim the techie
    This poor fellow tinsley hasn't a chance. Most people do not know who he is, and he has made next to no effort to make himself known in the three months since he was nominated.
    After a week there are Kramp lawn signs going up all over the place. meanwhile tinsley lamented to the paper his were on backorder.
    stick a fork in tinsely anytime now.
    11 03 29 Eric R. Wilkinson
    Well recognized and received candidate Peter Tinsely is running for Prince Edward - Hastings, while not enough in itself the riding seems generally disgruntled towards Conservatives and tastes seem decidedly mixed. The Liberals also have a freshly created youth group to supplement their campaigning, though their efforts are untested. While a Liberal victory would be difficult it isn't inconceivable and really depends on how the people in Prince Edward - Hastings perceive the calling of the Conservatives into contempt and the move for an election.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    By no means is this the safest riding in Ontario for the Tories, but it's still more than safe enough. Kramp won here in 2004, after all, and last time around he got an absolute majority, and even won in Belleville. I imagine that even Lyle Vanclief would have a tough time winning this back for the Liberals.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although Belleville is somewhat competitive, the Tories did win a plurality in the last two elections. However, the rest of the riding is solidly conservative and considering how unpopular the gun registry is in the Northern parts of the riding, this can only help the Tories run up even bigger majorities than they already have.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Yeah, the Grits have a name candidate and a decent base in Belleville, but I hardly think it will be enough to overcome that much of a deficit in the rural areas. In case anybody thinks that Toronto transplants in Prince Edward County will swing the seat, remember that their numbers are marginal and they will be prone to quixotic NDP and Green votes.
    10 12 21 R.O.
    Ken Cole left as the liberal candidate here during the summer but the new candidate former military watchdog Peter Tinsley is extremely overrated . he's never even ran in the riding for public office before . his being a candidate has more to do with the liberals trying to embarrass the conservatives than anything to do with the actual riding itself. well the liberals have stayed in second here in 06 and 08 thats really only due to weakness of the ndp and greens in the riding and other similar rural ridings. the liberals have only performed well in the belleville part of riding but its normal for conservatives to lose some of the polls in the most urban portions of even the safest tory seats. Darly Kramp may only be a backbencher but he remains a good constituency mp and well liked in the riding.
    10 02 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We really fail to see the logic in shifting this riding into the TCTC category. In most other cases it made sense, but this, well we're scratching our heads. Belleville may be going largely liberal, but this riding is way more than just Bellville. Unless there is some factor about Kramp or this specific riding that we are unaware of, this should be solidly in the CPC column.
    09 12 20 A.S.
    If the seat were confined to south of the Foxboro DMZ, the Grits could begin to look viable (and they're still winning swaths of Belleville); as it stands, broadly speaking, Kramp's kontinuing to kramp the kompetition. Worth reporting from a Green Shifty standpoint that the increasingly wine-country-yuppified/Hogtown-expatriated realm of Prince Edward County slipped into being the seat's NDP low point on behalf of Dion/May.
    09 08 26 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
    Kramp is a typical blowhard from the hinterland, all talk and no class. Making stuff up about Ignatieff so much that the Speaker threatened to kick him out of the Commons is about as low as a Parliamentarian can go. Still, there's a 10,000 vote spread the Grits have to overcome before Kramp even begins to sweat. Ken Cole from the Liberals has got his work cut out for him.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Kramp's 12,000 vote lead from '08 can't be caught. He's not flashy, or overly animated, but he's a well respected moderate who should have no difficulty getting re-elected again.

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