Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-30 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Bélanger, Mauril

Haché, Trevor

Legeais, Christian

Rioux, Caroline

Westland, Rem

Hon. Mauril Bélanger

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • ottawa-vanier (226/230 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 21 MH
    Not any longer one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario, but more than safe enough. Mauril Bélanger won it by 9800 votes in 2008, the year of the Dion disadvantage; he should widen the gap over his nearest pursuer this time.
    11 04 09 SouthpawPundit
    My home riding (and aside from the political boredom, I quite like where I live), and the most reliably Liberal riding in Canada (even if it's not currently the strongest). The Liberals actually did BETTER here in 2008 than they did in 2006.
    This riding has never voted anything but Liberal throughout its history, spanning back to 1935. The closest anyone came to beating the Liberal candidate was in 1940, when an ‘Independent Liberal’ candidate came within 6 points of doing so. Moreover, its two ancestor ridings, Ottawa and Russell, have been Liberal since the 1920s and the 1880s respectively.
    Does any else find it amusing that the political heart of our country has no competitive ridings this election unless one counts Gatineau?
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    Liberal since 1935, nothing will change in this election as Belanger wins his 7th election.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Probably the safest Liberal riding outside of the GTA. They will struggle to crack the 50% mark, but with the large Francophone population (the Tories have some support amongst suburban and rural Francophones, but not urban) as well as civil servants who probably don't want to vote for a party who is most likely to lay them off, I expect the Liberals to easily hold this. In fact if they lost all but one seat outside the GTA, this would probably the last one standing.
    10 09 28 Ottawa Insider
    Mauril Belanger will take this riding until he retires. The only way that the conservatives or anyone else would ever have a chance in Vanier is if a Bloc Quebecois member ran there.
    Safest Liberal riding East of Toronto. Sources tell me that conservative headquarters has completely given up on Vanier and will not allow Patrick Glemaud to run again after his embarrassing performance before the House Committee last session.
    10 03 06 R.O.
    as of now i'd have to say the liberals will hold this riding if Mauril Belanger runs again as i don't see the other parties being able to pick it up. i happened to be in this riding a few months back and saw that its largely an urban riding with some french but also very ethnically diverse . it also has a large % of renters so its mostly apartment buildings and not as suburban as the other ottawa ridings. but i do think 08 conservative candidate Patrick Glemaud was a good fit for this riding so i'm kind of surprised he did not run again as the new candidate doesn't seem to be as good a fit.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    Thanks to its containing the spiritual heart of urban Franco-Ontario, Ottawa-Vanier has been a legendarily robust Liberal seat for eons. However, that's shown signs of tarnish, bottoming out at a 42% Grit share in '06; and while the share bounced back to 46% in '08 (part of the overall Ottawa-zone contrarian Liberal quasi-comeback), Vanier itself is no longer the heart of the astronomic Grit percentages--nowadays, O-V's ‘safety’ has more in common with St. Paul's or Toronto Centre in that the CPC and NDP work to cancel each other out. And so it shall remain, I suspect.
    09 10 19 M
    This is a ''mailbox'' Liberal riding with many people voting more for Mauril than for the leader. But, if you go deeper, you would see that Ottawa-Vanier is in reality five different distinct ridings in one. Also, I think that for the last two elections, all the candidates were either billingual or Francophones (the riding also have a very sizeable Francophone Black and Lebanese francophone communauty).
    However, I think that the Ottawa-Vanier riding is one of the riding with the most social and economic differences maybe in the whole of Ontario or Canada.
    Basically, you have a large student population (from the U of Ottawa), some exclusive ''old-rich'' upper class districts which are among the richest in the country (Rockcliffe), some yuppified districts (such as New Edinburgh) some of the poorer areas in Ottawa (Vanier, Lower Town, Overbrook) and large middle-class areas, with pockets of upper-class districts (in the former city of Gloucester).
    So, basically, one can see that this riding have some pockets of support for the different parties. For exemple, the NDP and the Greens are strong in the Lower Town and the University area, the Liberals are king in Vanier and Overbrook and the Conservatives have a tendancy to win polls in Rockcliffe and some areas in Beacon Hill.
    In conclusion, Ottawa-Vanier will stay a Liberal riding for a VERY long time, however redistricting, which will comes eventually could change the riding quite a lot.
    09 10 12 Bernard Manning
    I was at the Liberal nomination and it was a raucous affair split just about down the middle. They don't normally announce the figures behind the result but this time they did and it was Bradley over Yale by about 40+ votes in 800 or so(?) That would make it razor thin as these things normally go. It was pretty obvious that Yale was the establishment old guard nominee and Bradley the grass roots. Yale saw Harper and the Tories as the opposition (yawn) but Bradley correctly identified Dewar and the Dippers as the ones to beat in this riding which tipped it in his favor. That and he got his vote out, rather than taking it as a given that they would show up at the annointed hour. So there you have it. A significant shift in the Liberal camp. Whether it will be enough to shift the NDP out of Ottawa Centre will be a much sterner test.
    09 08 29 JJ
    This area has been Liberal since its creation in the 1930's. The 10,000 vote gap will be difficult to overcome. Mauril Belanger is has also served for a long time. Liberal hold.
    09 08 28 WorldElections.com/glhermine
    Liberal hold, obviously. I think that thinking any other way right now is pure delusion, hackery or idiocy. If the next election is a 1984 like one, then it probably goes Tory, but since it won't be...
    A strong Liberal win. The interesting thing to watch is whether or not Belanger increases his vote share, like he did in 2008 bucking the trend (Ottawa-Vanier is pro-incumbent and Belanger ran on a very fertile issue - a interprovincial bridge unpopular in Vanier).

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