Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-26 15:27:00

Constituency Profile


Bertschi, David

Cénatus, Martine

Galipeau, Royal

Maillet, Paul

Royal Galipeau

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • glengarry-prescott-russell (3/198 Polls)
  • ottawa-orleans (191/207 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 Sean Markson
    Galipeau will win by 6,000. It's only logical. The Liberals can't make up their deficit, especially when they are so low in the polls and the NDP so high. Galipeau works hard - arguable with little effect - but he's well know and has a good profile. People do like him in an odd sorta way. He will win.
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    Former NDP and Green candidates have endorsed Liberal David Bertschi. If they can persuade the non-Conservative vote to unite behind him, that can help him against Galipeau. An article today in the National Post also indicates that David Bertschi is giving Royal Galipeau a good fight:
    On top of that, PSAC has endorsed David Bertschi, and there are thousands of PSAC employees in the riding:
    Perhaps most significant of all, The Ottawa Citizen has endorsed David Bertschi. The Citizen is a right-leaning newspaper, and this is the first time in recent years that they have endorsed a Liberal in this riding.
    Despite all of this good news, the challenge for Bertschi of course is that he may be hurt by the problems of the National Liberal campaign. It will be interesting to see whether Bertschi can prevail despite Ignatieff's low numbers.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    The NDP continues to be invisible in this riding, and did not even show up to the recent debate:
    'NDP candidate a no-show at spirited Ottawa-Orléans debate'
    As for the absence of NDP candidate Martine Cenatus, Orléans Chamber of Commerce executive director Larry Ring said the organization had sent an invitation to the NDP party itself because they couldn't find any contact information for Cenatus on her campaign website. The 26-year-old university student has yet to make a single appearance during the campaign and is refusing to do any interviews.
    If the NDP receives a low vote in this riding because of the weak candidate, it could help David Bertschi, The challenge though is that at the moment the NDP is going up in the polls. Bertschi will have to hope it doesn't effect this riding.
    11 04 25 James N
    Galipeau will win this riding by a larger margin than before. He's visible as an MP and with the rise of the NDP, the gap between Galipeau and the Liberals will only increase. There are NDP signs popping up all over the riding now giving them a bit more visibility. Liberals wont be able to beat the provincial / national trend with the candidate they've got.
    11 04 25 Evan deC.
    The chances of anything changing in the Ottawa region are slim, and the polls are indicating Liberal support has declined even lower in Ontario than in the last election with the Conservatives surging ahead. Galipeau will cruise to an easy victory - he has been active in the community and his vote percentage has nowhere to go but up. This site is already being way too generous to the Liberals throughout the province, and this one should have been called for the incumbent long ago.
    11 04 21 MH
    If the Liberal turnout is better than in 2008, and if some NDippers vote strategically, this riding will move into the Liberal column. For the moment Royal Galipeau's chances look fair to good; that could change. Should stay TCTC right to May 2.
    P.S. My post of April 20 was obviously meant for Ottawa-Vanier.
    11 04 21 Ottawa Outside Insider
    Galipeau is not finding many friends in this riding or with the local media. His campaign recently commented to the CBC that public debates are ‘not worth the time’. This was not well received and is one more hit against an already struggling campaign. Expect to see this riding turn red on May 2.
    11 04 20 MH
    Not any longer one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario, but more than safe enough. Mauril Bélanger won it by 9800 votes in 2008, the year of the Dion disadvantage; he should widen the gap over his nearest pursuer this time.
    11 04 20 NM
    The media and Liberal types are spinning the debates issue. Truth is, no one cares. Royal will carry this riding, unfortunately, by 5,000 - 6,000 votes. The Harper government has pretty a solid track record on the economic issues which are those that matter. Royal is not a very smart, competent or effective local MP...but the truth is, he is everywhere and people generally like him.
    11 04 20
    Close victory for Royal Galipeau in 2006, not quite so close in 2008. On the basis of the campaign so far the outcome this year should look more like 2006 than 2008. That means it is a tossup. The key issues are whether the Conservative vote holds steady, whether the Liberal turnout goes up and by how much, and what happens to the NDP vote. Will probably be TCTC right up to May 2.
    11 04 18 F.P
    Were seeing orleans light up with red signs and bertschi is looking better everyday. Royal's refusal to take part in some of the debates looks quite bad in his part. Government held in contempt, Royal not ever seen in orleans and his no show to the debates could very well be the combination that surprises the conservatives in this riding.
    11 04 18 Nathan Gallagher
    There are Conservative lawn signs in places where they were wiped out last time. This is going to be an interesting race. Galipeau's team seems to have a larger presence on the ground - I've received three different literature pieces from him already. And, their decision not to take part in local debates would infer to me that they think this campaign is theirs to loose. Judging by polling numbers thus far, I think their calculation was right. Galipeau will hold this with a 4-6 thousand vote spread.
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    The Ottawa Citizen said this weekend that this is the one riding in the Ottawa area that could change hands this election. In regard to the NDP vote, it is true that the NDP is usually almost invisible in this riding, and this year it seems to be more invisible than ever before. I don't think I've seen a single NDP sign yet this year. That could help the Liberals, but it will not be enough on its own. 10% of the riding voted NDP in 2008. David Bertschi will still have to convince half of those New Democrats to vote Liberal if he is to beat Galipeau.
    11 04 17 bla
    Bertschi is very aggressive in his campaign style...he clearly really wants to win this! I seem to notice more Liberal signs than the previous election, but I don't believe this due to increased support - he's only worked harder to make himself more visible compared to previous candidates. This is also the first election I can remember that I've received calls from Liberal staff asking for support. Bottom line though, Bertschi has no name recognition, and Galipeau is well liked in the community. However that being said, people here seem to mostly vote on party lines anyways, which are pretty much divided in half - the NDP and Greens are not a factor here. That includes the previous election, not just this time. And so as others have said, just watching the polls will give you an indication on how this seat will go. As I write this, the Conservatives are polling higher both nationally and in Ontario than the actual numbers in the last election, so I see no reason why Galipeau won't win this again with even a greater margin than last time.
    11 04 16 GCR
    I'm seeing a close battle here especially with Bertschi being a much more competent Liberal candidate then the previous liberal MP. This riding was Liberal for quite a long time and I think it could return seeing Galipeau only earned 500 votes more last time around. It also seems Bertschi's campaining is much stronger and the fact Galipeau has opted out of several debates shows a weekness in his campaing. The fact the NDP representent is non-existant with her ads and the fact she will not participate in any debates will tighen the race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    The Liberal campaign here is getting a lot of attention in the media as one to watch in the area. David Bertschi was interviewed on Radio-Canada today, and Ignatieff held a major event in Orleans that was televised nationally. Bertschi appears to be much more motivated than previous Liberal Marc Godbout, and has knocked on many more doors. The question is whether it will be enough to get him over the finish line. This riding is a belwether and usually votes in the direction the province is voting. The polls are changing back and forth in Ontario, but it probably still leans slightly to the Conservatives. We'll need to check in again in 2 weeks.
    11 04 15 Lary McDermott
    This will be a good race, but Galipeau will come out on top by about 4000-6000 votes. David Bertschi started off strong but his campaign seems to be getting tired. Even watching him on new coverage today with the leader in his riding he looked bored. With an NDP just on the ballot in this riding they'll get 6-8%. That leaves enough of a split for the CPC to come through again. I would imagine percentage wise the Liberals will be slightly up, but so too will Galipeau. Tough to see how such a no-name like Bertschi could pose a real challenge to a 5-year incumbent who is very well known. Time will tell, but if the polls stay like this, the race goes to Galipeau by a bit of a larger margin than last time.
    11 04 14 Sean
    I believe that this race will be extremely close. David Bertschi, while relatively unknown, seems to be a strong candidate and is much more eloquent than Galipeau. This is probably why Galipeau has pulled out of the Rogers and a few other debates. With the Liberals pulling ahead (slightly) in Ontario and the NDP candidate being completely invisible, this will be a tight race.
    11 04 13 Jason Rylee
    It's very clear on the ground Royal Galipeau will win this riding again. The Tories are high enough in the polls and his name recognition is significant. He's winning the sign war (for all that's worth) and I've received multiple literature pieces from him. It seems his campaign is much better organized than previous. The Liberal candidate seems to be working hard, but it's too little to make up the difference. Galipeau by 6,000 votes.
    11 04 12 R.O.
    Well i could picture the liberals winning this riding i have a hard time seeing it happening during an election when cpc ahead in polls and when there is allready tory incumbent . I can't really see Royal Galipeau losing the seat this election , he seems to have too many advantages . although the Orleans area of Ottawa more french than rest of city and i've been here before . well it mostly suburban its also has somewhat of an urban feel but cpc still managed to win here last 2 elections against a higher profile liberal mp than current candidate. the liberals are clearly targeting these kinds of suburban seats with there new found family focus . but i'm not entirely convinced its going to be successful in the end or if people aren't just annoyed at them for forcing election in first place and are tuning out campaign. this riding was mentioned in Ottawa media as being most likely to flip but i think some of that may have been pure specualtion due to other Ottawa races being less interesting this year and columist needing something to talk about.
    11 04 10 R Jacobson
    Royal Galipeau will win this riding by a larger margin than last time. David Bertschi has little name recognition all though he's worked very hard since winning the nomination. Galipeau has the incumbents advantage and has used his mailing privileges a Member very well since the 2008 election. People continually beat the effectiveness drum, but that doesn't motivate people locally and it just gives him an opportunity to list all the projects hes been involved in.
    On the ground, Galipeau's team looks more organized than Bertschi's with their signs up at record pace in multiple locations. It's also a Tory target seat to the sheer force of the federal party will be on this one.
    Galipeau win with 48-51%.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Going to find out soon enough if the close race was because of Liberal support or Godbout popularity. Still Liberals are devouring NDP and Green support in Ontario and it's going to be interesting.
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    As has been pointed out below, this riding is a valuable belwether for measuring Liberal and Conservative support in Ontario because it has voted with the winning party in the past several provincial and federal elections. Liberal support appears to be up a bit in this riding compared to 2008. Whether or not it is enough for the Liberals to win is too soon to tell. David Bertschi's campaign is getting a lot of media attention in Ottawa, and he appears to be better-organized than Marc Godbout was in 2008. Both candidates have their lawnsigns out, and appear to be evenly-matched in the Blackburn Hamlet area. The NDP are not in contention here, but Bertschi will need to draw on NDP support to win. If the NDP support goes down from 2008, Bertschi has a shot. If not, it may be difficult for him. I would say this riding is leaning slightly Conservative based on Galipeau's incumbency advantage, but we will revisit the riding in a couple of weeks to check in again.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    In the past three elections, the Tories have gotten between 40-44% while the Liberals between 38-45% suggesting both parties have a solid base and a relatively small swing vote. Since 1999, whichever party won the election has won this riding both provincially and federally so at this point this favours the Tories since they will likely win the federal election but if the Liberals win they should win this too. Also probably the Liberals best chance for a pickup in the 613 area code. While it may back the losing party, I would say there is a 90% chance whomever wins the election will win this which at this point favours the Tories.
    11 04 01 Orleans Voter
    I was driving by Blair and Innes today and I saw David Bertschi's campaign team in full force. Royal better get out and start campaigning. He may have a tougher fight on his hands than he thinks.
    11 03 31 CJ
    This race should be TCTC as Royal Galipeau is seen in the riding as someone who is always making funding announcements around Ottawa but rarely in his own riding. David Bertschi is a strong candidate for the Liberals having lived and worked (as a lawyer) in the Orleans community for 20 years. The NDP candidate recently dropped out leaving the replacement with little time to mount a strong campaign which should feed some more votes to the Liberals. With the Liberals mounting a much stronger campaign so far this time aound I would predict a 500-1,000 vote Liberal win at this point
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    This riding has been a belwether for Ontario elections, both provincially and federally, since 2003, so it's surprising that it doesn't get more attention. In 2003 it switched from Conservative to Liberal when Dalton McGuinty became Premier. In 2004 it remained Liberal federally when Paul Martin beat Stephen Harper. In 2006 it voted Conservative when Harper won. In 2007 it voted Liberal provincially again when Dalton won again. In 2008 it voted Conservative again when Harper won again. If this riding is considered Conservative in this election, and not too close to call, that does not bode well for the Liberals picking up new seats in Ontario.
    10 02 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Prince Edward-Hastings is TCTC but Ottawa Orleans is not...yeah, that makes sense! Tory numbers in Ontario are sagging and although we still say Galipeau keeps this riding, it is mostly because Godbout is not running again. If the CPC doesn't pick up the pace or drops further, this will become very competetive.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    Now that some of the other ridings have been moved back into the TCTC category, this is a riding which also should be considered to be placed there.
    Since recent polls have shown that the Conservatives and Liberals are now tied in Ontario, this riding comes back into play. It is also important to keep an eye on because it is a swing riding. It has voted with the winning party, both federally and provincially, for many years now.
    If the Liberals can improve their vote in Ontario from the last election, they can win here. If they don't improve their Ontario vote from 2008, they won't win here.
    As for the candidates themselves, Royal Galipeau now has an incumbency advantage. However, new Liberal candidate David Bertschi has potential. He was able to beat City councillor Rainer Bloess by a large margin for the nomination. Bertschi's disadvantage is that he does not have the name recognition that Bloess or Galipeau have. However, that can also be an advantage. City council is unpopular in Ottawa right now, particularly since the OC Transpo bus strike last year which the City handled badly. Bloess might have ended up being a liability. Bertschi is also much more bilingual than Bloess.
    Therefore, if polls remain close in Ontario between the Conservatives and Liberals leading into the next election, this riding can once again be a close fight.
    09 10 19 M
    I must say that I live in this riding and this riding is becoming more are more like the Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississipi Mills in the West End, which have the same demographics and zoning.
    Basically, and especially with the lack of a strong candidate for the Liberals, this riding will go for the Conservatives and this especially with their high numbers in Ontario.
    This is due to a few reasons:
    -This riding is a typical upper-middle class riding like many of the ridings in Northern Toronto or Western Montreal. The salaries are high and the recession is absolutely not a factor here. Even through, that the riding had gone for the PC even provincially and could go in the next provincial election.
    -The conservative MP is a francophone, so he can put out respectable numbers from the francophone communauty, which is important (and the main reason why Walter Robinson didn't won in 2004). Without Godbout (which was well known in the francophone communauty as a former school board president) and with a no-name candidate, the Liberals will lose a part of their francophone vote which want about 50-50 between Galipeau and Goudbout at the last election.
    -There are many military personnel living in this riding and in the last few years they constitute a core conservative voter base.
    09 09 28 Roger1
    The Liberal's needed a star candidate to hold off on declining fortunes in Eastern Ontario. Galipeau has won this riding twice now and doubled his margin. The man is everywhere. People know him, they like him and feel secure. His opponent is little known and will have a lot of work to do in order to raise his profile and overcome the deficit here.
    This riding is becoming more and more like Nepean-Carleton as the French population wanes. Look for this to go Conservative by at least 10% in the next election. Galipeau by at least 7500 votes.
    09 09 21 Petrie Island Pontificator
    I am shocked the Grits didn't nominate Rainer Bloess. Huge name recognition, small ‘c’ conservative and know as an honest and well-meaning city councillor. This is a true swing riding, no longer the bedrock Liberal it used to be - mostly due to the declining franophone population. Royal is an old school politician, there isn't a BBQ or Church he doesn't visit. Bloess would have been his greatest threat, similar Liberal to Gord Hunter in the West end.
    09 09 20 bla
    Ottawa residents have very little admiration/respect for city councillors of late, and so Rainer Bloess would have been a disaster, which is why he was rejected overwhelmingly by Liberals who picked a no-name and safe candidate David Bertschi. That being said, who they picked would likely be of little consequence. To quote the local OrleansOnline.ca (Sep18/09) ‘Recent polls also indicate that the Conservatives have a 10 point lead in popular support in the riding’.
    09 09 19 dean sherratt
    I think the Liberals may have missed out on a chance of victory by not nominating Rainer Bloess, the city councillor for Innes Ward. He would have had a significant public profile as a relatively non-partisan councillor.
    09 09 14 bla
    Although a brand name, I'm sure Rainer Bloess was seen a potential liability for the Liberal party. Most city councilors are not looked at in a positive light by the public lately. This will ensure that Ottawa-Orl?ans remains a true bellwether riding. No candidate will have a real advantage. Although Royal Galipeau is the two-time incumbent, he just doesn't have that 'star' quality. So once again this will be a close race whose winner will likely be dictated by how well the polls are doing.
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    Update: Ottawa lawyer David Bertschi won the Liberal nomination for Ottawa-Orleans this week, beating Ottawa city councillor Rainer Bloess.
    If Bertschi could beat a bigger name like Bloess for the nomination, it does show he has the potential to win the riding. But he will need help: the Liberal numbers in Ontario will have to be several points higher than they were in the last election.
    09 09 10 A.S.
    Actually, at least until the recent CPC-friendly climate change in Eastern Ontario, Ottawa-Orleans has been more of a Liberal stronghold than a belwether--remember that in 1988, none other than Maureen McTeer lost here for the Tories. And actually, considering what was happening across Ontario, the relative closeness of margin in '08 reflected an Ottawa-area phenomenon of greater Liberal stability than in the rest of the province--Godbout only lost a quarter of a percentage point over '06. Well, Ottawa Region was ahead of the game in swinging Liberal in the late 80s, and swinging Tory/Alliance a decade or more later, so--why not. By that measure, Godbout or no Godbout, this would remain one of the likelier Liberal-from-CPC pickups in Ontario; especially if Count Iggy's, uh, cosmopolitan magnetism exudes power within the Capital Region...
    09 09 09 Marco Ricci
    This is a bellwether riding for Ontario. It has voted with the winning party (Liberal or Conservative) both federally and provincially in the last several elections.
    If the Liberals are to make gains in Ontario and improve their seat results from the last election, this riding will be a test of it. If the Liberals can win back this riding, it will mean they are on the way up. If they can't win it back, it will mean they have not yet recovered in Ontario.
    There will be a change in this riding in the next election since former Liberal MP Marc Godbout is not running again and there will be a new Liberal candidate. Some people in this riding feel that Godbout divided the Liberals here when he took the nomination away from former Liberal MP Eugene Bellemare a few years ago.
    This time there is a sense that the Liberals will try to unify behind whoever is chosen as the nominee, and there are a couple of high-profile people from the riding running such as Ottawa City councillor Rainer Bloess.
    09 09 04 Brent Thorkelson
    This one comes down to the quality of liberal and NDP candidates. Good NDP candidate like in 2006: Liberals can forget it. If the NDP candidate is a total loser and the Liberals nominate someone with some profile, then there is a chance. It all comes down to how many people waste their votes on the NDP and Greens. If the total NDP/green vote can be held below 12% or so then the Grits have a shot. Royal is solid back bench material, pathetic really... This riding can be seen as a bellwether. If either side wins it decisively early in the night then this could be one of the first signs of the evening we are headed for a majority government.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Galipeau narrowly defeated the incumbent in '06. Both men's vote totals increased from '06 to '08, but Galipeau widened his lead. He'll hold the seat, and likely take around 45-48% of the vote.

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