Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Ottawa Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-10-05 10:15:00

Constituency Profile


Akpata, John Andrew

Bellai, Romeo

Bradley, Scott

Dewar, Paul

Hunter, Jen

Konstantinakos, Damian

Ryan, Stuart

Soublière, Pierre

Paul Dewar

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • ottawa-centre (255/255 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 Volks Lad
    NDP wins it, the Conservatives will come a surprisingly close second. With the riding having a large number of politically savvy voters who know the Liberal Party is imploding, the Liberal vote will collapse and split to the Cons or NDP. I'm a member of the ‘Liberal base’, and I'm voting Con, and I'm sure I'm not alone in that mindset.
    11 04 28 D. Bolger
    Paul Dewar will retain a significant lead over his closest rivals.
    11 04 20 Marco Ricci
    The Conservative candidate didn't show up to the debates this weekend, and this fact received a lot of coverage in the newspapers. I think the Cons will finish 3rd this year again, and farther behind than last time.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Paul Dewar has a high enough profile he should hold this and considering the Tories will almost certainly come in third, there is no need to strategically vote here as the Tories don't stand a chance.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Contrary to what Bryan said below, there was no large scale sit-out in Ottawa Center by Liberals last time (only a small scale sit out) and they had a star candidate in Penny Collinette. NDP support has been consistent for Paul Dewer and unless the NDP vote collapses in Ontario (which it appeared to be doing at first but has now completly recovered), then Paul will keep this riding.
    11 04 15 SMC
    Understanding that liberal supporters are optimistic of their chances in Ontario, there is virtually no chance Scott Bradley wins Ottawa Centre. I don't even understand how it can possibly be listed as a riding too close to call. Paul Dewar is very popular, one of the highest profile NDP MPs in the house with a strong connection to the community and popularity which has grown in successive elections. NDP holds this seat easily, likely winning with over 40% of the vote this time.
    11 04 11 Bryan
    This is a much tighter race that the NDP want to admit. Scott Bradley may not be well known in political circles but is well known and loved among the hockey community. Paul does not seem to be as active campaigning as the last two elections with fewer signs and visibility. The NDP must admit two facts a) Paul got a huge bump from his mother's passing last election 2) Many liberals didn't show up at the poll last time, this time they will show up in force. They hate the fact they lost this riding and will throw everything they can to gain it back.
    On a side note the Tory candidate knocked on my door last Friday. He seems creditable and a likable guy. But the biggest plus for he was the fact he was an electrical engineer. I don't know about you but we could use a few less lawyers and a few more engineers on Parliament Hill.
    11 04 10 JC
    Paul Dewar may be popular, but he does not compare to Mac Harb (former Liberal MP for Ottawa Center) in popularity. If Mac was still around, he would have defeated Ed Broadbent and Paul Dewar.
    11 04 09 SouthpawPundit
    With the NDP poised to gain as many as two seats right across the river in Gatineau, it's hard to imagine the NDP losing a geographically contingent Ontario seat, especially with an incumbent as popular as Dewar. More importantly, the riding has two universities (though admittedly, school will be out) and is in the heart of Ottawa's downtown core and political district, from which we can infer that the constituency is far too sophisticated to vote ‘tactically’ for the Liberals to keep the Tories ‘out’. There's really no reason to extrapolate Liberal strength here on the basis of the pre-Broadbent era either, as two defining features of that period were a divided right and the weakness of the NDP in Ontario due to the party's protracted loss of political capital in the wake of the Rae government's unpopularity.
    11 04 07 Marco Ricci
    This is a riding that the Liberals may be able to take back some day if they return to majority territory. At the very least, the Liberals would have to be in the lead in Ontario and have a star candidate, neither of which is the case right now. However, the Liberals may have the opportunity to narrow the gap from last time. In 2008 the Conservatives had a strong candidate who was almost able to overtake the Liberals. This time the Liberal candidate has been in place for a year and a half whereas the Conservative candidate was nominated at the last minute and is not very well known. Therefore, I predict an NDP win with an improved margin for the Liberals, and the Cons further behind than last time.
    11 04 07 Bob
    My observation so far is that the Liberals seem to be much better organized than last election, and Scott has many more signs out that Penny has last time. Liberal signs seems to outnumber NDP signs in the Glebe, an NDP stronghold. There also seems to be a perception that Dewar is more concerned with his role as foreign affaies and human rights critic that with Ottawa centre, and he is taking the riding for granted. That may not be enough for the liberals to win, but this one will be a riding to watch.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    With Paul Dewar's popularity, this should probably stay NDP, although the Liberals are targeting this. This riding has a lot of civil servants who have the most to fear from a Conservative majority since it would probably mean many layoffs thus some might switch to the Liberals to prevent a Tory majority. The Tories won't win this, but any gains or losses will come from the Liberals so if the Tories improve their vote, it should help the NDP while if they lose votes it should help the Liberals. This is the NDP's to lose at this point.
    10 10 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Why would the gun registry be an issue in central Ottawa? Is it moose season along the Rideau Canal? The is the bronze bear catching fish at the start of Sparks Street menacing foreign dignitaries? Are the beaver tails they sell in the Byward Market no longer pasteries but actual tails from hunted beavers? This is a city and the gun registry will be favoured if it is an issue at all. Those that live in a city and care THAT MUCH about registering their gun are probably a little bit Yosemite Sam and probably already vote Conservative. Besides by the time the election comes, this gun registry bit will likely be ancient history as newer, more pressing issues come to surface. Granted the NDP are currently down in the polls a little bit in Ontario but that will change (either up or down). Never the less, this one has been NDP for some time and Dewar has been winning by a comfortable margin. The vulnerable seats are places where the NDP came much closer (Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshaw, most Northern ridings) and they won't give those up without a fight, let along this one. Unless NDP support stays low and drops further, Paul Dewar has this one comfortably tied up.
    10 09 28 Ottawa Insider
    Normally I would say that Paul Dewar was a lock to take this riding again; but, after the NDP's dismal performance on the gun registry vote and subsequent tank in the polls give liberals a hearty chance of taking this former stronghold back. Believe me, they will drop a star power candidate for this riding and Paul Dewar will be in the fight of his life.
    10 01 30 A.S.
    Thanks must really go to '04's brilliant Jack'n'Ed full-coverage tactic for keeping this solidly in the NDP camp; even if Paul Dewar has yet to hit the 40% post, it's all upon the electoral foundation consolidated then--yet curiously (and not unlike Trinity-Spadina), prior to the 1980s this seat was barely on the top-priority NDP radar: it was more of a Trudeau Liberal zone defaulting into Red Toryism, if anything. Well, whatever--now after three elections culminating in Penny Collenette being pulverized, it seems that even the opposition's not bothering except on a token invest-in-a-windfall basis, and they're probably more preoccupied with gaining/saving neighbouring/nearby seats instead...
    09 10 05 Nick J Boragina
    I notice the projection here was recently changed from TCTC to NDP. That is something I can get behind. The NDP has a tradition in this riding, and the Liberals need strength to take it back, strength is something they are lacking in at this time.
    09 09 20 David Y.
    Let's look at the voting patterns here, shall we?
    In 2004, Ed Broadbent won by 6256 votes.
    In 2006, Paul Dewar won by 5153 votes.
    In 2006, Dewar won by 8766 votes.
    Dewar has the name recognition, is functionally bilingual, and a winning record going for him.
    Easy NDP hold.
    09 09 10
    To call this TCTC is, as others said, quite laughable. Dewar is extremely popular, and neither the conservative nor the liberal candidate has come anywhere close to his vote. Easy NDP seat.
    09 09 10 Insider
    Safe hold for the NDP.
    Unlike past elections where Liberals nominated locally well-known politicos who worked for Jean Chretien and Paul Martin (Collenette and Patten respectively) this time they have gone with a no-profile challenger (I've lived and worked in the riding for years and never heard of Bradley). The Ottawa Citizen reports the nomination meeting was very divided on the result.
    Regardless, the NDP will still pour the majority of their local resources(with some exception for Gatineau) into this increasingly NDP riding for Dewar to ensure a safe result.
    The only interesting part of this race is who the Conservative will be, as it may be a student leader who was widely supported by Liberals in a disputed Carleton election.
    09 08 30 hatman
    Paul Dewar is an extremely popular MP. To think that this race would be to close to call would be foolish. This riding may be traditionally Liberal, but Dewar has a lot of popular support in this pro-incumbent riding. The NDP would need a huge national collapse to lose this riding.
    09 08 26 DL
    The NDP has now won this riding in three elections in a row and the margin keeps increasing. Attention Liberals: This is not a fluke. Last year Paul Dewar - who is also very personally popular - won by 9,000 votes and none of the people seeking to run for the Liberals sound all that formidable (certainly no better than Penny Collenette or Richard Mahoney). NDP hold.

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