Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Northumberland-Quinte West

Prediction Changed
2009-10-16 12:56:00

Constituency Profile


Christianson, Russ

Norlock, Rick

Rudd, Kim

Torrie, Ralph

Rick Norlock

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • northumberland (184/184 Polls)
  • prince-edward-hastings (36/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26 GN
    Norlock will win in a walk. This riding has 35 percent of its electorate in Quinte West and the Harper government has invested billions in to CFB Trenton. Port Hope is always red and its usually a close race in Cobourg. No way Rick loses, and he is a good MP and a decent man.
    11 04 26 canadianclair
    An early wave of Red/RUDD/Liberal in Cobourg, Port Hope and Trent Hills bodes well for the running newcomer Kim RUDD.
    Excellent team and hearing Harper record and Norlock step-lock as main issues.
    11 04 25 Observer
    While listening quite closely to all candidtaes in NQW,during candidates debate and interviews, as well as reading literature on candidate websites, I find it quite interesting that unlike his opponents, especially Kim Rudd, Mr. Norlock for the most part stays away from attacks and personal cheap shots.Just visit candidates websites or google quotes from them. In a day and age that sees the electorate growing tired of mudslinging, it's refreshing to see a candidate take the moral high ground.
    Yes, I am a Conservative supporter and have been for decades, but it bodes well for Conservatives in the riding that Mr. Norlock behaves the way he does.
    11 04 22 DM
    New to this riding. I think the local Conservatives think Norlock has this one in the bag. Their local camapign headquarters in Port Hope is usually empty. Liberal headquarters on the other hand is bustling all the time. Norlock spent more money than any other MP sending sometimes weekly newsletters to every home in the area. I know this has angered more than a few. Red signs everywhere in Port Hope with blue signs a distant second. Like I said, new to the riding but not so sure Norlock is as safe as he thinks. By the way, never voted Liberal in my life but probably will this time.
    11 04 08 old guy
    Tha 2008 Conservative candidate, Joe Sinicrope, has surfaced again this time helping Jay Aspin.It is astounding that Aspin would have him. Sinicrope disgraced himslf and his party by his classless rant and rage against the electorate the night he lost in 2008 rather then conceding with grace.I don't think that Aspin realizes what a gift he has given Rota and the Liberals. The most predictable focus of the campaign will come from the local minority gun lobby.They don't rea lize how tiresome they have become This will be the 4th election where they have attacked Rota and each time he has increased his vote . Once again Anthony will take the high road and will do well. The local federal Tory organization is in disarray.They could not get a campaign manager in the riding A right wing activist was sent in from Ottawa.As a result things will get ugly.It appears that many moderate Tories are coming to Rota.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    Even though Paul Macklin was one of several Liberals who managed to win by the skin of his teeth in 2004, and held his own despite losing in 2006, I'm still willing to call this for the Tories this time around. For one thing, Norlock won by 20 points last time, and came just short of a majority, even against Macklin, who wisely bowed out this time. And, as others have mentioned, CFB Trenton is here. That's practically reason enough to predict a Tory hold.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Back in 2004, the Liberals only won by 300 votes and considering the Tories are polling a lot higher than in 2004, I don't think the face much danger here. Add to the fact this includes Trenton and the Tories tend to do well amongst those in the armed forces.
    10 01 30 A.S.
    Rick Norlock turned in a solid 20-point lead over the reoffering Paul Macklin--although given the geography and 2008's electoral dynamic, it isn't like it couldn't have been predicted. (Another by-product of said electoral dynamic: the NDP's hitherto-ascending Russ Christiansen recoiled after hitting Elizabeth May's brick wall.) Biggest potential obstacle (i.e. that which allowed Mackin to squeak through in '04) might be a reawakened perception that Harper Tories aren't exactly Hees Tories. Biggest countervailing factor, as one'd expect: CFB Trenton. As long as the just-folk continue to pay respects along the Highway Of Heroes, Norlock's destined to stay. (Perhaps.)
    09 08 27 R.O.
    This riding was very close in the 04 and 06 elections yet in 08 Rick Norlock managed to beat former liberal mp Paul Harold Macklin by over 10000 votes in a riding which was suppose to be close again. that being said a future election is not going to be the same and liberals are soon going to be nominating a new candidate as former mp is not running again for them but if he wasn't able to win back the riding i'm not that optamistic about the new candidates chances here as they'd be even less well known in the riding. well on the other hand Rick Norlock is going to have been mp for this riding for almost 4 years by this fall and no doubt much better known in the riding. and its also doubtful the green vote is going anywhere but green as they nominated a candidate a few months back so that hurts the liberals chances as well.
    09 08 26 Cnote
    Norlock is perhaps the most popular MP here since George Hees. The Conservative government has delivered hundreds of millions of dollars here for infrastructure (CFB Trenton, Municipalities etc) and he listens to and cares about his constituents. Couple that with the recent revelation that Warkworth Institution will not be closing, Norlock will win. Be sure he will knock on every door and out work his opposition during the writ.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Norlock has twice defeated the Liberal that held the seat prior to him. The '08 campaign saw him win by more than 11,000. Too much for the twice defeated Macklin to catch up. Norlock will hold the seat.

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