Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:34:00

Constituency Profile


Aspin, Jay

Daley, Scott Edward

Eckert, Rona

Rota, Anthony

Anthony Rota

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nipissing (171/175 Polls)
  • timiskaming-cochrane (45/186 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 03 Brainstrained
    I think, with only a 14-vote margin of victory for Aspin, a single small order of crow will suffice.
    I recognized but failed to take into account the national NDP surge that cut into Rota's vote by almost 2,500. That allowed Aspin to come up the middle with the smaller Tory bounce that many pollsters failed to recognize, as did I.
    I still think Aspin ran a weak campaign, and consequently could have won by a larger margin that would have avoided the need for a recount.
    Still, we have four years to analyze this result, so I'll leave it a congratulations to Aspin and his team.
    11 05 01 NJam101
    This will be the odd seat out for Northern Ontario as I'm guessing it will be the only one that doesn't go NDP. I'm also guessing that it will be somewhat closer than many people think with the Conservative candidate a close second. Rota is very popular but the national Liberal campaign may hurt him a bit. Any shift of his votes to the NDP will make it close. I've been hearing mixed reviews of Jay Aspin as a candidate. Can't believe he would miss a debate in Powassan in the southern portion of the riding which votes heavily Conservative and that I consider to be a part of southern Ontario.(within Parry Sound District) Those upset with the gun registry issue likely already voted Conservative and they don't make up much of the total population. Most people live in urban North Bay with a university, college, many many government buildings and institutions. But Conservative support in North Bay is usually higher than any other Northern Ontario city as there are many self-employed and small business people here rather than mining and forestry jobs. But this is a traditional federal (but not provincial) Liberal riding.
    11 04 25 Brainstrained
    The Tories have not run a good campaign:
    - they were very late, several weeks, starting their sign campaign
    - even now they lag far behind, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1 and more in many areas
    - leading me to suspect they lack manpower to canvass voters, call supporters, and place signs
    - Aspin's performances at debates has at best been average. At the CofC debate, usually a Tory friendly crowd, he had trouble connecting with the crowd and certainly didn't end up in the top two
    - the lone Tory ‘celebrity’ event, a visit by MP Candace Hoeppner, got almost no media attention and caused Aspin to miss the Powassan debate
    - For a party that thinks the gun registry is a winning issue in N-T, they did a poor job promoting Hoeppner's appearance and/or putting her in a more visible situation
    Which leads me to believe not only will Rota win, but he should easily widen his 5,000 vote margin of victory.
    11 04 25 B Hubley
    There are sure a lot of Liberals on this site knocking Jay. He was at a meeting with over a hundred of Rota's angry constituants over his flip flop on the gun registry bill the night of the Powasson debate. Everybody knows these debates are all filled with party plants and the people putting them on sway to the left to begin with (the guy in North Bay even wore a red tie!)
    11 04 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    There have been more Aspin lawn signs going up lately and haven't noticed as many new Rota signs. Have notices the huge billboards for Rota all over the city. As for Aspin not going to the debate in Powassan, that's where the CPC won all the polls in '08. Umm...Stupid! Stupid! Stupid move! Maybe pulling these Harper stunts might work elsewhere but in places where people expect the MP to work for them (like in smaller towns), that is only going to hurt.
    11 04 20 Powassanman
    The Nipissing-Timiskaming Conservative candidate (Jay Aspin) was a no-show at the Powassan all-candadates debate Monday night. The event was held at the local legion and it was a full-house. The atmosphere of the evening was very positive but you could tell that it was upsetting to many that the Conservative candidate didn't even bother to show up as when that issue was raised to the moderator a commotion swept over the crowd. The three candidates who did attend were relaxed, cooperative and complementary of each other, especially Anothony Rota (Liberal) and Scott Daley (Green) who both exemplified a positive and constructive style of politics we don't see much in Parliament these days.
    11 04 20 old guy
    Good try MC .I checked with Rota's team .They have over 900 lawn signs up in North Bay alone By the weekend they will have 1500 up in ths riding --Aspin has fewer then 100up in North Bay.On my street there are 12 Rota signs --4 of which are on lawns that traditionally have Tory signs. MC I recommend that you google Three Hundred Eight and click on Nipissing- Timiskaming to see their predicted vote spread. Aspin hurt himself badly by missing 2 debates this week.At the Powassan debate a young Aspin supporter announced that he was absent’because he had a more important meeting to Attend’ You can imagine how that was received. Aspin's campaign managar said that the notice was far too short. I checked and the sponsers--Almaguin News sent an e-mail on April 4 and the debate was April 18. Too short notice?
    11 04 19 MC
    Rota had a two week head start calling former supporters to get his signs out. I got my call two days into the campaign. I'm seeing a lot more Aspin signs going out every day and the same Rota signs remain from what I can tell. I don't believe the other two parties have lawn signs to put out. I've talked with many of my friends, neighbors and coworkers who are seriously considering not voting liberal this time around.
    11 04 18 old guy
    I am respectful of but somewhat amused at the deep analyse of the situation in Nipissing-Timiskaming. It is not complicated at all. I have lived in this riding for 45 years . It is quite simple. There is an strong incumbent Liberal candidate. He has all of the qualities you would ever want in an M.P. .He has not only survived controversial issues such as abortion, same sex marriage and the gun registry he has actually increased his plurality each time. He also has a skilled ,professional and committed campaign team. They have a strong belief in Rota's future. Then of course there is the history of the riding--Liberal federally for 86 of the last90 years. I was here in 1984 when the Tories won. None of the factors that led to their victory are present now. This will be a big Liberal win.
    11 04 17 Brainstrained
    Let's see . . . in the past 90 years the heart of this federal riding, North Bay/Nipissing, has voted Liberal in every election but one. Over the same time, voters have passed the riding from retiring Liberal MP to new Liberal MP multiple times, and have turfed incumbents only twice - one Liberal, one Conservative. The first far more for the party than the incumbent(Mulroney's Tory sweep), the second four years later at least as much for the party as the incumbent.
    Rota does of course, have all the benefits of being an incumbent:
    - name recognition
    - experienced riding campaigner (4th campaign in 6 years)
    - credit and support for the job he's done in those 6 years
    - and as an opposition MP, no blame for gov't errors
    But I think there is a little more needed to make a riding an incumbent riding, and I'm not sure how to describe it other than asking whether the incumbent could win if he or she switched to either of the other major parties, or perhaps even as an independent.
    I can easily see Charlie Angus winning Timmins-James Bay, if hell froze over and he decided he would run as a Liberal or a Tory. I have more trouble seeing Rota winning as an NDPer or a Tory, though I think he would have a good shot as a Tory.
    All this long windedness simply means I see N-T more as a Liberal riding than an incumbent riding, though Rota is well on the way to making it his alone.
    A couple of other points:
    - While federally Nipissing has been represented by the Grits for 86 of the past 90 years, it doesn't have the same history provincially, where they tend to trade it every 10 to 20 years (with incumbents occasionally getting the boot). The Tories and the Grits have each represented the riding for about 43 years, even the CCF (which became the NDP) held it for three years during WW2.
    - Polling indicates the Grits are five points or more higher in Ontario than the last election, which surely seals this riding for them.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Despite the Tory gains elsewhere in Ontario over the past three elections, this has gone in the opposite direction. This is not so much a Liberal riding but an Anthony Rota one. This riding rarely turfs incumbents unless there is a good reason to, in fact Mike Harris who was a provincial PC held this riding during the Larry Grossman disaster in 1987 so this strikes me as more of an incumbent riding than Liberal or Tory one.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Riding update: Saw the first NDP sign. Not for the candidate (don't think she had signs even printed) but was a Jack Layton sign in an appartment window. Rota signs on private property outnumber Aspin signs 4:1 (at least from we see).
    Candidate debate at Nipissing university, NDP candidate doesn't bother to show up. Aspin and Rota didn't impress the students but the Green candidate did. Actually spoke about issues the students were concerned about. Most people we spoke with thought Aspin just parroted the standard Harper lines. One even went so far to say ‘That's all we need is another Harper drone’. Though more forgiving of Rota there wasn't high praise for him either.
    11 04 14 old guy
    Anthony Rota is heading for a big win. The sign situation is interesting. Road signs are about equal. Lawn signs however are really different--Rota has at least a 8 or 9 to 1 edge over Aspin hsre. The NDP campaign is absolutely non existent. So far she has not shown for any debate. Also no signs at all.As the fear of a Harper majority grows many NDPers will support Rota.
    11 04 11 Mr. PM
    Additional update on Stephen Woodworth, the reason his twitter account was removed was because he made a very distasteful joke about people with physical disabilities. In the past he had thought it was ok to make bad jokes as long as he inserted ‘(humour)’ at the end of the tweet.

    Is there any question now that this riding will go Liberal?
    11 04 11 D. Brydges
    My prediction is that Nipissing-Timiskaming will see the incumbent, A. Rota, elected by a comfortable margin again. The lack of presence by Green and NDP candidates is surprising this time around and I expect their voter share move a bit to Rota.
    My sense is that the Long Gun Registry issue won't have a significant effect on where votes go in Nipissing-Timiskaming in 2011. Sure, thre are a few who are strongly opposed to the Registry's existence but that number never changes. When CPC MP Candice Hoeppner attended the Anglers & Hunters sponsored event in North Bay last fall, to muster support before the vote in Parliament, the number of people who were motivated enough to attend to show their opposition to the Registry looked to me to be less than 100. Several more did attend but they were what I would refer to as observers (like me), which included area municipal politicians and community leaders there to listen and watch.
    11 04 10 Brainstrained
    RO is a least partially right - Rota is a likeable MP, but its wishful thinking for Tories to assume there is going to be thousands or even hundreds of voters upset with him over his changing of vote on long gun registry.
    As I said earlier the registry is an old issue that has little appeal beyond the Tory base. As for Harper's nickel and dime issue campaigning, it may win a few votes here and there, but not big enough numbers to swing this riding. How many volunteer firefighters are there whose votes will be bought by a small tax credit? Not mine.
    What might have more impact is the NDP and Green Party non-campaigns. If these candidates don't start campaigning soon, what happens to their vote? How many will stay home and how many will bleed to the Liberals?
    11 04 09 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    RO: Your comments show your ignorance of this riding. This riding is dominated by North Bay. A city. It's a small city but a city never the less. The three biggest employers in North Bay are Nipissing University, Canadore College (so academia) and the government (so beurocrats). Not exactly two groups who love Harper and co. As for the long gun registry, I've said it once, I'll say it again. Most people are not talking about it! Sure it's more of an issue here than in Toronto or London or any other city down south but there are far more important things that have people's interest. If Aspin wins it will not be on the gun registry, end of story.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    Aspin is starting to get his signs out. Many more in the various neighbourhoods, I'd say 3:1 for Rota. Saw Tony Rota canvasing this afternoon, he waved to me as I drove by. Guess he saw me staring and my look betrayed my thoughts, ‘Is that Rota there?’ Haven't seen Aspin anywhere though.
    11 04 08 R.O.
    Anthony Rota may be a likeable mp but its wishful thinking for liberals to assume there is not going to be voters upset with him over his changing of vote on long gun registry, there is a much higher % of long gun owners in the north when compared to other ridings . we also must not ignore fact conservatives have made numerous other policy announcements that have appeal in rural canada . such as tax credits for volunteer firefighters and financial incentives for doctors and nurses who move to rural areas where there is a need for new medical professionals . its not clear if these be enough to swing a riding but they certaintly have some appeal in rural ontario and there are alot of rural polls in the riding outside of city of North Bay. Jay Aspin is also a new candidate who seems likeable from what i've read about him so far , much better than 08 candidate. i'm not certain what happen here on may 2 yet polls for ontario inconsistent with some having cpc way ahead others closer race.
    11 04 08 Brainstrained
    Two weeks in and many voters might not be aware of who is running for whom.
    Except for Rota, whose signs were first out and now proliferate. Aspin's signs are finally starting to appear on lawns, though not in significant numbers. The NDP's Rona Eckert and the Green's Scott Daley have neither been seen or heard in the media or on lawn signs (and not on this website either as official candidates).
    I have to say that contrary to comments here and for other northern Ontario ridings, the gun registry is a non-starter. It probably energizes the Tory base, but it's been around so long that re-igniting the issue (if that's even possible) is unlikely to win them many new votes.
    With little more than three weeks to go this riding still looks Liberal win.
    11 04 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    Sign update: Jay Aspin has got his signs up now at the important intersections. Still think Tony Rota has a few more and Rota's are larger. Bigger tell-tale sign would be lawn signs on private residences; they're sprouting up like daisies. The ratio would be 20:1 in favour of Rota. Essentially I have seen about 20 Rota lawn signs and only one for Aspin.
    In other news: Spoke with a woman who works at the returning office and she said that students are registering to vote in numbers that she hasn't seen before. She said that students might actually play a vital role in this election. Certainly hope that young people take advantage of the right that so many are fighting for in the Middle East and elsewhere.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    Anthony Rota is a very likeable person. The comments by the previous posters are generally correct with the exception of the gun registry. Most of the population is in urban North Bay. Most people there are not gun owners. I could see some people in the rural parts of Temiskaming voting based on that issue but it won't make much of a difference.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Since 2004, the Tories have gained in Ontario while the Liberals have lost support. Interestingly enough this riding has gone in the opposite direction thus why I think the Liberals will likely hold this never mind both federally and provincially it is pretty rare for incumbents to lose this riding. Provincially this went Tory even during the 1987 disaster provincially, but was also Mike Harris' riding who probably won on the incumbency advantage rather than his party. The one thing that could hurt the Liberals is the gun registry is quite unpopular here so if the Tories make this a big enough issue it could flip this riding although still unlikely.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Lawn sign report: Rota is out of the gate pretty quickly. Got his big signs up at all the important intersections. Home lawn signs have been sprouting up too. Nothing from any other candidates. Maybe they haven't got their signs printed yet or the ground is still too frozen (we've been having a prolonged winter this year).
    11 03 26 old guy
    This riding has a solid Liberal record for 86 of the last 90 years. Jay Aspin is certainly an improvement over the last Tory candidate but Rota is just too popular. This will be a big Liberal win
    11 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Said this once and will say it again, North Bay's population is old. This demographic will come out to vote and they don't like change all that much. People are very comfortable with Tony Rota and if he could survive the collapse in '08, he should survive now. Now another point, recently read an article in the Toronto Star (think it was) that said CPC support is slipping amongst the 55+ crowd. They don't like the contempt for parliament and all that jazz. This would ensure that Rota remains as MP for this riding.
    11 03 08 Brainstrained
    Jay Aspin is an improvement over the last Tory candidate Joe Sinicrope, but he falls short of the stature and popularity of previous Tory candidates Al MacDonald and Peter Chirico, who top municipal council polls but were both defeated by Antony Rota. It might be recalled that Aspin finished 11th and lost his seat the last time he ran for city council, 10 years ago. He returned to the less competitive public school board, where he has done well in North Bay.
    Aspin will need a lot of help to defeat Rota, such as a stronger trend to the Tories, and a solid issue that cuts into the Liberal vote.
    11 02 25 R.O.
    The conservatives have found a new candidate so they can put the Joe Sinicrope experience behind them . Jay Aspin was nominated a few weeks back , so he'll face Anthony Rota in the next election . ndp never much of a factor here and past candidate Dianna Allen has left the riding so its definity a liberal / conservative race here. if the tories try and target northern ontario and make the long gun registry an issue this one for sure be a riding they go after. the Fednor program is also likely to be another major issue in the riding and in Northern Ontario in general.
    10 01 10 A.S.
    How ironic: Mike Harris's home base is now virtually the last vestige of Precambrian Federal Liberalism in Ontario (though Kingston skirts the rim a bit). Maybe it'd be otherwise if the Tories haven't been so clumsy in the candidate selection and the NDP weren't so underdeveloped by Northern Ontario standards...but such it is. Whatever Rota's merits, I still can't get the ‘by default’ bee out of my bonnet re Nipissing's Grit-red endurance; after all, the seat (and with a big cab-min placeholder, yet) fell to Mulroney in '84, and Monique Smith came perilously close to losing provincially in '07...
    09 11 05 Brainstrained
    The Liberals and Conservatives are not neck and neck in North Bay, though at times, such as when Al Macdonald was the Tory candidate, the gap is rather close. A look at the poll by poll results at Elections Canada for the last several elections reveals that the Liberals consistently win the vast majority of polls in the city, and usually by a good margin. Conservative support is far stronger in rural areas, particularly Powassan, North Himsworth, Nipissing and Callander. Temiskaming which comprises about 17 per cent of the riding, definitely leans Liberal and reinforces the lead the Grits build in the city.
    09 09 15 Supergenius
    As it stands, this riding is a safe Liberal hold. The Libs and Cons are neck and neck in North Bay proper (population 50000) but the scale gets tipped by the fact that in the north part of the riding (Temiskaming shores, pop. 12000) there is a heavy liberal presence.
    A game changer would be a Con from the north, but the political machines of all 3 parties are heavily focused in North Bay, and it would not occur to anyone to go outside the city for a candidate.
    The other interesting thing about this riding is the fact that the NDP consistantly pulls around 20 percent of the vote despite the fact that the candidates (esp. last time) are often weak. Movement of these voters (and in the north just like in the west, it is not a guarentee that an NDP move goes automatically to the libs).
    So very likely liberal, but the potential exists for some interesting moments.
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    In what was a disastrous year for the Liberals in Northern Ontario in which they lost all their seats but this one, Anthony Rota managed to win, and win by a 12 point margin. This riding clearly either has a solid Liberal base or a strong support for Anthony Rota. Either way, that should keep this as the one safe seat the Liberals have in Northern Ontario for the moment.
    09 09 03 Brainstrained
    Colour Nipissing Liberal red. History, experienced candidate, and solid constituency work put the Grit's Rota well ahead of any other potential candidate. There's just not enough labor - mining, forestry, pulp and paper, etc.. - to swing this riding left like most of northern Ontario, and not quite enough money-people to swing the riding right, like Parry Sound-Muskoka.
    To win, the Tories must find themselves a truly likeable (smart & articulate would help) candidate who already has a local base; a national swing to the right; and some way to cut into the traditional Liberal vote.
    Remember the core of this riding has gone against the Liberals only once in 100 years. At that time there was a very likable (though not all that articulate and smart) Tory candidate with a local base, a very strong national swing to the right, and a significant cut into the traditional vote.
    09 08 24 R.O.
    Well i don't disagree that Anthony Rota is the favorite here but its pretty early to make a solid prediction as we have no idea who is going to be the ndp or conservative candidates here in a future election that we don't know when is going to take place. and Rota has made some silly comments of his own and was quoted during a recent visit to kenora as ‘ wanting his country back ‘ whatever that was suppose to mean . although i do agree with the comments on past cpc candidate Joe Sinicrope and in an article i read after the last vote from this riding it sounded like the conservative riding association didn't even want him back after that so they are likely looking for a new candidate but no clue as to who that might be and i've been to this riding alot over the years and honestly though the conservatives would do better here last time so maybe the past candidate cost them there chance here last election.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The only Liberal seat to remain in Northern Ontario. If it can withstand what happened last year it will stay Liberal. Not that the CPC don't have a chance. They did very well in that election. However, the CPC candidate apparently had some harsh criticisms of the voters choice (the Liberals) on election night. Though neither of us were in the riding for the election, several different sources has commented to Dr Bear about what was said and it has not sat well. With just the preception that the CPC candidate was a sore loser, it makes the Liberal chances that much better.

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