Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Hodgson, Bev

Jonker, Harold

Kelley, Heather

Nicholson, Rob

Willick, Shawn

Hon. Rob Nicholson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • erie-lincoln (52/197 Polls)
  • niagara-falls (183/192 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    Nicholson is fairly popular and high-profile, and he had a very comfortable 20-point margin last time. Both the Liberals and the NDP have higher priorities elsewhere in Niagara Region, so I expect a safe Tory win here.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    Nicholson is high profile and has been a good cabinet minister for harper, he wins this seat.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    A somewhat mixed riding. Niagara on the Lake which is the smallest community is fairly affluent and has a large senior population thus very conservative. Fort Erie is more blue collar, but if I am not mistaken I believe the Canadian Alliance finished first in 2000 thus its right wing orientation. Niagara Falls is more mixed but at best the Liberals will tie the Tories here and the Tories strength elsewhere pretty much guarantees they win this never mind Rob Nicholson is a pretty high profile cabinet member too.
    11 03 27 DVPro-lifer
    Nicholson is really popular as a man. My parents are bleeding heart small-l liberals, and even they like him. He's a mainstream conservative who should have no problem, particularly as residents have only to look across the border to compare the economic recoveries in Canada and the U.S.
    That said, bev hodgson is going to run a great race. I know her from university, and she's articulate, statuesque, photogenic, and fiscally moderate. she has a killer resume with her long-standing local law practice and her community involvement.
    11 03 21 BG
    If Rob Nicholson wins this riding, it will be by a slim margin. In 2008 his Liberal opponent was extremely weak. This time around he has a much stronger opponent in Bev Hodgson. Her radio and billboard ads have done much to raise her profile in the area over the last 6 months. The riding has never been a Conservative stronghold. While Rob probably has the most freedom with the press of any of Harper's cabinet members, he's still not a Conservative media darling.
    11 03 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though he's comfortable now and should be re-elected fairly easily, Rob Nicholson should not take anything for granted. When the non-vote is taken into account, he did not increase his support between '06 and '08. Prior to that he was quite close to his Liberal rival. Bottom line, if the winds of change do start to blow you will see other parties eyeing this riding. AS outlined many of those reasons below; we agree with them.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    Maybe as a measure of his Mulroneyite past, Nicholson's the perfect ‘solid moderation’ Ontario Tory to give gravitas to the Harper cabinet; and it allowed his safe reelection in a seat that'd otherwise be marginal--a 20-point margin's nothing to scoff at, certainly. On those grounds I'll offer a token Tory prediction for now. Yet NF's urban-blue-collarish history leaves me teetering--except, would it necessarily be on behalf of the Liberals? After all, with Welland now NDP and Jack Layton singling out St Kitts for an anti-HST push, who's to say that NF, through its immediacy and economic base, can't or wouldn't be a third piece in that particular puzzle. Take that as a watch-this-space alert--though in practice, that could just as well cancel the collective opposition out on behalf of Nicholson...
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Nicholson has no clear marks against him. He conducts himself well, and is a good moderate choice. It'll be hard to make up 10,000 votes against him.

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