Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Mississauga South

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:10:00

Constituency Profile


Ambler, Stella

Barrett, Richard

Kalbouneh, Farah

Simas, Paul

Szabo, Paul

Paul Szabo

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • mississauga-centre (25/193 Polls)
  • mississauga-south (194/194 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 M.S.
    Driving around this riding today, I saw more NDP signs than ever before here (put up in the last week), and there were groups of students carrying Kalbouneh signs up and down Lakeshore. Meanwhile, surplus Szabo signs have been pasted all over construction sites and other public areas; it smells of absolute desperation. I know a couple of lifelong Liberal voters here (but with bad memories of Rae Days) who are voting for Ambler. Folks, you can call this one for the CPC. I don't think it will be close.
    11 04 30 MF
    The plummet in Liberal support in Ontario is going to cost them seats, and I think Mississauga South will be one of them. It is quite small-’c’ conservative in its inclinations and it looks like there's a better Tory candidate this time.
    11 04 26 GG TAXPAYER
    Yes this is too close, but the recent surge by the NDP will help the Conservatives here. This is a riding where unemployment is low, with some pockets of affluence. But most people work here and will now be thinking ‘ Could it be possible if there is a coalition Jack Layton could be in charge. Maybe a majority is not as evil as a NDP led coalition. ‘ I have paid a lot of taxes in my lifetime and I am not prepared to anti-up again for another surtax for Universal daycare, cap and trade etc etc . This is a big riding for the Conservatives and a full court press will be in force into the we hours unlike 2008 .
    11 04 24 R.O.
    This is an interesting riding it appears to be on brink of going conservative each election then slips back liberal and re-elects Paul Szabo. but this elections seems different , conservatives have a more experienced candidate Stella Ambler who is well connected to several cabient ministers . this riding is also next door to Iggy's riding of etobicoke Lakeshore and can't be good sign that seat next door is this competitive and could possibly go blue on election day . Harper was also in Mississauga for a big event on saturday a sure sign there targeting peel region big time this election . anyways not exactly sure what will happen here likely to remain a close race like in past elections with final winner likely to take it by small margin.
    11 04 24 Not Non-Partisan
    Ambler in a walk here. Let's face it, Szabo won by 4.3% in 2008. The Tories have to take 3% more given the Ontario polls where they have a big lead and much of the Lib vote is stacked-up in City of T.O. The Dippers have to get 2% more here. That's it.
    11 04 16 Too close
    Hey ART. Are you trying to say ‘She is just visiting’ just like that terrible Conservative commercial. That is a bit hypocritical, isn't it. I know Stella and her family. They are part of the community I live in and your comment was a low blow. So you want to use the ‘Harpers's buddy’ and ‘ladies’ comment a bit more wisely. You insult our intelligence ART. Let's try and be civil. Szabo has bee a credible MP. I like him. I also think Stella will be a very hard working local MP.
    11 04 16 Art
    Ambler is an outsider who lost in Brampton last time and moved into Missisasuga South; she's a buddy of Harper; imagine that ladies; she will lose because this riding considers seriously the local individual; she will lose when the sleepy-time Libs who didn't vote last time roll in and mark their ballots for someone they know with a proven track record, Szabo.
    11 04 15 M.S.
    With only a couple weeks to go, the Conservatives still have a massive advantage in lawn signs throughout the riding. I'd be shocked if Szabo manages to hang on here. The NDP probably hit rock bottom with 8% last time, so Szabo can't hope for much help from NDP voters.
    11 04 12 MH
    Paul Szabo was able to hang on by more than 2,000 votes in 2008. With Liberal turnout higher this time, and with some of the NDP vote going to the Liberals, he should win this more easily in 2011.
    11 04 07 joey joe joe
    Szabo won by 5% last time. With Liberals polling better in Ontario can't see why this would be in play. Conservative candidate last time even outspent him by $12k according to wiki.
    11 04 07 initial
    Walking through this neighbourhood today, I saw more Conservative party signs than Liberal party signs. There are quite a few Conservative party signs even in the poorer parts of this riding (e.g. the apartment buildings along Hurontario just north of the QEW) not just the richer areas near Port Credit.
    11 04 03 gg 1427
    We will see this prediction changed to ‘too close’ before campaign is over. Yes, Szabo always surprises the pundits by winning. Both the Libs and Cos. saw low turnout here 2 years ago. Szabo has a great loyal list of voters and will be hard to beat. But Ambler is by far the hardest working, and most organized candidate to challenge Szabo in his long tenure. Being a target riding for the Conservatives, the idea is to get the vote out. If people do not want another election for 4 years, and think that the Conservatives have a chance for a Majority, this is one riding where their vote may count. It will be close, but I chose the Cons as I believe people don't need or want this election with Canada being the envy of the world.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    In 2006, the Tories had a strong second place showing but in 2008 thanks to the weak Tory campaign and strong Liberal campaign it stayed Liberal. As a veteran MP, Paul Szabo is definitely a strong campaigner and can keep an otherwise likely Tory pick up in the Liberal column. At this same time this is pretty affluent riding so the Liberal plan to raise corporate taxes will probably hurt them more than help them here. At this point the Liberals may have a weak edge, but it wouldn't take much to flip this in favour of the Tories.
    11 04 02 M.S.
    After the first week the Conservative signs outnumber Liberals at least 2-1, even in the eastern (Liberal-leaning) half of the riding. More like 3-1 in Lorne Park/Clarkson. Maybe the Szabo team is still putting theirs out, but as others have said the Ambler campaign definitely appears to be better organized so far. The new development in Port Credit (lots of new wealthy voters) will also probably help shift the riding back to the Conservatives.
    11 03 27 Too close
    Not sure if Liberals have his one wrapped up yet. Day 2 and riding covered with Blue signs. Word is Conservatives are targeting this riding and have a very strong candidate with a very well organized team.
    11 02 03 Gladstone
    Bear and Ape have this well figured. Szabo has an excellent machine that was able to keep Liberals from staying at home and pull in NDP voters alarmed at the prospect of a Tory MP.
    10 10 03 GG 1427
    Many thought that this Riding would of gone Blue in 2008. Not so as Szabo's team got the vote out. The Conservative organization was very very poor. Not this time. Stella Ambler is a very strong candidate with a team that knows how to organize. Unless, something changes federally, I think Szabo's time is up.
    09 10 14 Phoenix
    While I don't disagree that this seat could POTENTIALLY stay Liberal, I must say that this site picked a rather curious time to get off the 'too close to call' fence and make such a prediction. Fact is, there are several other southern Ontario seats marked as TCTC that are considerably less likely to change hands than this one (Newmarket-Aurora, Halton, and Haldimand-Norfolk, to name a few), especially given the current polling reality in the province (the Conservatives consistently leading the Liberals by 10-15 points, as opposed to the 7-point lead they had in the last election). Szabo may be well-liked enough to poll above his party's fortunes, but with the current snapshot of support levels, overcoming a 2,000-vote margin shouldn't be a particularly Herculean task for the Conservatives, either.
    09 09 28 RGM
    Another election and another ?too close? for Mississauga South. How many times does Paul Szabo have to win before this riding is seen as one of the safest Liberal seats in the Peel Region. It wasn't close last time and with the federal Conservatives concentrating so hard on the Brampton ridings it just isn't in the cards for them again this time. Szabo wins by 2500 votes this time around. I'm sure a year after the next minority government Mississauga South will once again be listed as ?too close?.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    I don't know if it's some current parliamentary record worth noting that Paul Szabo's represented the Liberals in this seat in every federal election save one since 1980--that's eight times (six winning) and counting. Anyway, he's redeemed himself over time as a Commons workhorse, and the fact that he survived '08 despite the seat's Tory-leaning history may be testament to that fact--I mean, MSouth staying Liberal and MErindale not?!? Does not compute. Of course, to Tories, Szabo's the one that got away and the next low-hanging Bonnie Brown on the horizon, so we're looking at an either/or prospect here.
    09 09 05 Johnny Quest
    This will be an interesting one. Rumour is Stella Amber, 2007 gore malton con candidate, is running here. She works for Flaherty and has deep provincial pc roots, so she will be able to get money and workers. Also because where she works, she might even get the con's target management program which helped in several close ridings.
    09 09 04 R.O.
    Is some unknowns in this riding as longtime mp Paul Szabo has stated that he would run during a fall election but if its much later he may not run again according to a story i saw on the pundits guide. so if the riding were to turn into an open race that be a much different election. we also don't know who the conservative candidate is here although the previous one from 08 Hugh Arrison wants to run again although since there was a competitive nomination meeting here last time there is likely to be one again. so i somehow suspect there is alot of unknowns remaining as to the future race in Mississauga South.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    The Grits certainly had Szabo in the spotlight while he was chair of the Ethics committee. This could work for or against him, depending on how many people watched, and how they judged his ability to handle a very theatrical committee. 2,000 votes is not nearly enough for him to think he's got this locked up...too close to call
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Almost 6000 few voters turned out in 2008 than in 2006 but unlike in other ridings where they were almost all Liberal, this one seems to run the political spectrum. The Liberals have 2500 few votes cast, Conservatives 2522 fewer votes cast, NDP had 1503 few votes cast and the Greens gained 1014 votes. It would seem that the Liberals had good organization on the ground to starve off the sit outs seen across Ontario and voters are probably very comfortable with Paul Szabo. Bottom line, probably will stay Liberal next time, especially with a stronger leader and the drive to retake their 2008 losses near by.

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