Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Hawkins, Nadine Marie

McCallum, John

Poon, Adam

Saroya, Bob

Small, Allen

Hon. John McCallum

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • markham (132/184 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Mak Lian
    This seat will shock alot of people. Tories win here in a squeaker. McCallum's antics and lack of attendance have tired older voters. New Canadians want a fresh face and a majority government. Saroya wins with 36%. NDP pulls the supposed Grit vote taking almost 27%
    11 04 25 will87
    This is a riding similar to Richmond Hill in the sense that the CPC cannot seem to make much headway here despite their successes in surrounding 905 ridings. It will be interesting to see what happens when McCallum retires as we will find out whether this is a safe Liberal seat or whether it is a safe McCallum seat. Of course, that assumes that the electoral scene when McCallum retires is similar to now. Nevertheless for now a safe Liberal hold.
    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    Now that Vaughan has fallen, this riding's claim to being the safest Liberal seat in the 905 is uncontested.
    11 04 16 MH
    This is one 905 riding in which the Conservatives don't pose any threat to the Liberals, while the NDP is even weaker. John McCallum took 55% of the popular vote here in 2008, when the Liberals were suffering under the Dion factor. This time McCallum may top 60%.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This may be part of the 905 belt where the Tories are aggressively target, but considering the massive margins McCallum has won by, there is no way he will lose this. If the Liberals only held onto to one riding in the 905, it would be this. Besides this idea the ethnic votes will swing en masse to the Tories is nonsense. The main question is will they vote massively Liberal like they use to or split more evenly. A more even split would help the Tories in other 905 ridings but not enough in this one.
    10 02 06 R.O.
    Its not really surprising this seat has stayed liberal even though it was one of the only ridings to not go liberal way back in 97 election. the reality is the riding has changed alot since then , especially the overall demographics and it has not just became a popular place for chinese canadians to move to but also large numbers of south asians call the riding home. The loss of Gordon landon as a candidate likely hurts the conservatives a little but being the incumbent government they will have no trouble finding a new candidate for this riding. but it will likely be somebody totally new as there previous candidates here seemed to only go so far and maybe someone new might improve there chances. But John McCallum still maintains the advantage here regardlessly of what the other parties do for a candidate.
    09 12 20 A.S.
    Strange how the last general-election federal PC seat in Ontario might well be on track to being the last ‘Paul Martin Tory’ stronghold in Ontario...at least by superficial appearances; then again, remember that through redistribution and all, it's not quite the same seat that it was in Jim Jones' time. Indeed, within transposed boundaries I'm wondering if the present Markham-Unionville would have been much more Tory in 1997 (or even less so?!?) than the present Oak Ridges-Markham. Anyway, any blueward shift now depends heavily on a Markham-as-the-next-Richmond CPC ethnoburban strategy--something which Gordon Landon-style candidacy boob-ups don't bode well for. (Speaking of ethnoburban strategies but more under the radar, I'm wondering if Jack Layton's courting of such things as the Tamil community resulted in the lowly NDP unexpectedly cracking the 10% ceiling here for the first time in a quarter century.)
    09 12 14 binriso
    With the CPC apparently dropping a candidate who seemed fairly frank and honest according to reports, that certainly doesnt look well. Not that it really mattered though.
    09 09 29 Toronto Star
    Tory candidate dumped for frank TV comments
    Gordon Landon says he's not used to people telling him what to think.
    Mused riding wouldn't get infrastructure cash because it's Liberal-held
    Sep 29, 2009 04:30 AM
    OTTAWA?A moment of candour has cost Gordon Landon a shot at federal politics.
    Landon was dumped Monday as the Conservative candidate for Markham-Unionville after publicly musing the GTA riding was being shut out of federal infrastructure funding because it is held by a Liberal.
    The York regional councillor says he complied with a request from the Conservative party to step aside, adding he is not used to people telling him what to say and think.
    The news came as Prime Minister Stephen Harper touted his government's progress in rolling out the pro-growth stimulus money announced in the Jan. 27 budget.
    In a meticulously choreographed announcement in Saint John, N.B., Harper boasted that more than half the infrastructure projects financed by the spending plan are underway.
    Last week, Landon told Citytv a National Centre for Medical Devices Development initiative wasn't receiving federal funding because the Conservative government doesn't hold the riding.
    As a regional councillor from Markham, Landon, 61, is used to being independent and speaking his mind, ?so it's hard for me to bow to a lot of structure and having everything approved by Ottawa,? he said.
    Critics have complained that only a fraction of the thousands of infrastructure projects approved by the federal government have actually received a cheque.
    Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page says the government isn't sharing infrastructure-spending details he needs to determine whether the almost $16 billion over two years is being spent.
    Page said his office filed a request for specific infrastructure spending at the end of August but was stonewalled.
    ?We got a letter back from the deputy minister of transport and infrastructure just last week saying this is a significant data request ... and they weren't prepared to give us this data (at this time),? said Page, who has been a thorn in the Harper government's side.
    Page has embarrassed the federal government by casting doubt on Ottawa's price tag for the Afghan mission and accurately predicting the deficit would be far greater than forecast by the Conservatives.
    ?We are looking at where the bar has been set in other countries on openness and transparency on stimulus money and ... we will keep asking for the information so we can do our own analysis on money going out the door,? he told the Toronto Star.
    Meanwhile, Landon said he stands by what he said about the lack of funding for the medical devices centre but wishes he had said it differently.
    ?I didn't follow Conservative policy in terms of getting permission to go on that TV show and I made a comment on that show that was an embarrassment to some members of the Conservative party.?
    Landon intimated his fate was sealed when Harper was asked about his controversial comments at a news conference last week in Oakville.
    While a party spokesperson declined to be interviewed, Conservative MP Paul Calandra, from the neighbouring riding of Oak Ridges-Markham, insisted Landon was not pushed.
    ?He made the decision to resign on his own and he made that decision based on the fact it was difficult for him to work within the confines of partisan politics,? Calandra said.
    Landon said he had done ?a lot of work in the riding? and thought he could have won it by defeating Liberal incumbent John McCallum.
    09 09 11 Stevo
    Hard to believe that in 1997, this was Ontario's ONLY seat won by a right-leaning party (Jim Jones won for the PCs led by Jean Charest). As it stands now, I would say even Vaughan is more likely to sour on the Liberals before Markham does. The CPC fielded a candidate of Asian background in 2004 and 2006, and barely made a dent in McCallum's margin. I can't say I understand the appeal - McCallum is one of the more arrogant MPs in the House, the very definition of an elitist entitlement Liberal. Whatever the reason, the is no chance that he will lose his seat in the next election.
    09 09 07 R.O.
    This one could get a bit more interesting than last time as the conservatives have found a new candidate as Duncan Fletcher isn't running again. They have found a well known and longtime city councillor who will be there next candidate here. that being Gordon Landon who is one of the city of markham's longest serving city councillors. now i'm not saying John Mccallum is going to be easy to beat as he's been mp since 2000 just it could get a bit more interesting than usual here. whats also noticeable is both are fairly old so in the future this riding is going to elect an mp of an asian background i highly suspect due to the fact it has such a large asian population. its essentially an ontario version of the richmond bc riding.
    09 08 26 binriso
    Even in the CPC high water mark in Ontario (39-40% or so last election) the Liberals won this by a 2-1 margin. The Conservative candidate actually lost votes compared to 06 and was still 12000 behind. Should be an easy hold for the Liberals.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    At first glance, McCallum should hold this seat. But it has to be pointed out that he had the lowest vote total since he first was elected in 2000. Some of this would have to do with voter turnout, but the Tory percentage went up in '08, and if the Tories decide to target this riding, it could be in reach. Too close to call for now.

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