Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Albrecht, Harold

Ashley, Albert

Bruce, Lorne

Rosehart, Bob

Harold Glenn Albrecht

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cambridge (14/209 Polls)
  • kitchener-centre (29/210 Polls)
  • waterloo-wellington (119/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 21 rabbit
    unlike k/wat and Kit Centre ridings- should be safe tory seat as prediction on elect pred site now stands-if tories would lose this seat then looking at weak Con minority or Liberal govt ( with more seats)- seems polls for Ontario support no change in this type of riding
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Dirty trick backfired on Conservatives when they registered websites in the Liberal opponents Bob Rosehart's name but the margin is too great. Rosehart is the former Wilfrid Laurier University chancellor and a great candidate but the Cons 24% margin in 2008 is too large to beat.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    A 25 point gap is a pretty big gap to overcome never mind the Tories are quite competitive in Kitchener proper, especially considering this riding has the fewest number of RIM workers or students who are more liberal. And even with the urban parts, the rural portions which make up half the polls are staunchly conservative and thus any Liberal gains in Kitchener proper won't be able to cancel out their clobbering in the rural parts of the riding.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Even if the Tories lose the two inner Kitchener seats, they'll probably hold on to this one. Albrecht was just shy of a majority last time, and was still almost 25 points ahead. I definitely don't see the Liberals gunning for this seat when there are such ripe pickings so close by.
    11 03 22
    The closest thing to BC style Bible belt riding as there is in Ontario. It takes a really baaaad candidate for the CPC to lose here...Albrecht is a good one.
    09 12 28 A.S.
    Ah, incumbency + Dion's ineptitude: it allowed Harold Albrecht to leapfrog to a 2:1 margin, so that even SW Kitchener's traditional cold feet t/w the right got a little heat-padding. This was also one of those seats where the Green candidate seemed to position himself as the nominal ‘third choice’ in lieu of a late NDP nomination...but then, oh miracle, the NDP not only nominated, it hit the ground running and outshared *both* Green *and* 2006--unless, perhaps, that was an accident of left-leaning voters no longer beholden to saving a Liberal incumbent. Who knows. Who cares. At least until redistribution divorces the Kitchener from the Conestoga, Albrecht rules.
    09 12 28 R.O.
    A mixed rural and small town riding with a bit of suburbs , the federal liberals used to be competitve here and hold the seat provincially . but don't appear to be a major threat to Harold Albrecht at the moment and likely be forced to focus whatever resources they have in the kitchener area on the 2 urban seats they lost last time . Harold Albrecht is likely to continue to hold this seat for the immediate future as he represents the incumbent tory government and continues to rise thru its ranks.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Albrecht will hold the seat. His lead exploded from '06 to '08, and the 11,000 vote spread will be enough to keep him employed.

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