Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Hamilton Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:19:00

Constituency Profile


Baldasaro, Michael

Byron, Jim

Christopherson, David

Nussey, Lisa

Tennier, Anne

David Christopherson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hamilton-east (76/190 Polls)
  • hamilton-west (165/235 Polls)
  • ancaster-dundas-flamborough-aldershot (3/196 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Authorized by the Official Agent for David Christopherson
    11 04 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Starting to make Easter weekend rounds, Hamilton Center pit stop, very strong showing for the Liberal candidate this time. Christopherson is too strong to beat but will be closer than in '08.
    11 04 19 rp
    One of three ridings in Ontario (four in Canada) with no Green candidate.
    11 04 19 Jack Cox
    I still think this is going to stay NDP, but one has to wonder if Christopherson blocking the release of the Auditor General Report may be gaining some traction?
    11 04 09 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    In this riding at the moment and the one thing I noticed is the remarkable number of signs on private property for the Liberal candidate! During the municipal elections, I had a friend who was running and I made a comment on how the NDP have a lock here. He said he wasn't sure as there were a lot of people who were tired of Christopherson. I thought he was just being partisan but now I'm not so sure. I still think the NDP have it but with poll numbers as they are, it'll be a much closer race.
    11 04 07 MH
    In Hamilton Centre those who can't stand the Conservatives have every reason to vote NDP. David Christopherson occupies one of the party's safest seats in Ontario and Canada. The Liberals and Conservatives will battle for second place.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    The strongest NDP in the 3 Hamilton seats Christopherson holds onto this easily.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The NDP won this by 12 points in 2004 and even if their campaign falters, I suspect they will at least do as well as 2004. Add to the fact the lockout at Stelco won't help the Tories and the Liberals are seen as too much of a downtown Toronto elitist type party, not a blue collar working class type.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    The NDP will hold on here, even if they lose the other two Hamilton seats. When the Tories (who stand no chance at all of winning) come in second, and the once-dominating Liberals come in third and under 20%, it's a pretty safe bet. Also, as others have mentioned, this is the riding of the provincial NDP leader, who would be more than willing to send troops Christopherson's way if the going got tough. She'll likely put in plenty of campaign appearances with him in any event.
    11 02 20 Bryan
    anne tennier looking for the lib nomination after losing it in ADFW. she'll get slaughtered by CHristopherson.
    10 11 17 seasaw
    This one's a no brainer, David can go on vacation during the campaign and still win. He is personally popular, hard working and one of the best MP's. He is one of the few MP's who puts his constituants' intersts ahead of everything else.
    10 09 30 Mikay
    Can't see how Christopherson will ever lose this riding as long as he wants it. Hamilton Centre's profile is as close to the downtown Toronto demographic as you can get without living in Toronto. Huge numbers in the university, arts and medical fields, and a pretty solid labour base too.
    I lean Tory on economic issues; not so much on social matters. And, I'd love to have a serious candidate run for my party in Hamilton Centre. Absent that, for the last few elections, I've voted for Christopherson. He's a decent man, not dogmatic, and he looks out for the interests of Hamiltonians. I suspect he's also a stabilizing influence in the NDP caucus, helping to keep the posturing Layton and his leftist acolytes in check.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    As a matter of fact, Christopherson's margin *didn't* grow; it went from 13k and 27.8% to 11K and 27%, and his overall share slipped back below 50%--what happened was that CPC and Liberals flipped places, and the Green share more than doubled! So chalk it up to the dead-cat-bouncing EllieMays for that token slackening. Whatever. But doesn't make Xtopherson any less safe, esp. now that his provincial seatmate is the provincial party leader...
    09 08 26 DL
    This has gone NDP in three straight elections under Christopherson and his margin keeps growing. This would be an NDP seat even if the party was reduced to a dozen seats in the whole country.

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