Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Etobicoke Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-30 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Opitz, Ted

Rivero, Ana Maria

Thompson, Sarah

Wrzesnewskyj, Borys

Zoricic, Katarina

Borys Wrzesnewskyj

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • etobicoke-centre (217/217 Polls)
  • etobicoke-north (11/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Gucc
    Its really beyond me that Borys walks into a victory time and time again. Theres clearly an ‘old country’ association with Borys along certain areas of the riding, but I trully think that this may be the year that the tide turns.
    11 04 30 R.O.
    will Toronto Mayor Rob Ford's endorsement of Harper lead to a seat in Etobicoke area which heavily supports Rob Ford ? not really sure but liberal numbers way down from historical levels of support and according to ekos toronto very close. but somehow i just don't see toronto going solidly liberal or ndp this years but conservatives likely have some more likely ridings to target than this area of city. Ted Optiz has a chance here this year but final outcome depends on if ndp vote really goes up or not.
    11 04 28 Ivriniel
    I drive though this riding every morning on the way to work, and just based on the lawn signs, I think Borys will take it again.
    11 04 23 Not Non-Partisan
    With the Tories at what?... 40%+ in Ontario, they have to win seats in the City. They have more vote than Mike Harris did in '95 when he won 16 of 30 Toronto seats. This is the most Conservative riding in the City. All those votes have to be somewhere.
    11 04 21 rebel
    Etobicoke Centre is my old riding before I moved to Ottawa and then it was pretty Conservative (albeit under more favourable boundaries).
    Ten more days and then Election Day! With the Conservatives solid and the NDP rising nationally, the Liberals are in between a rock and a hard place. While stronger than in 2008, I don't think the Conservatives have the votes to carry Etobicoke Centre this time...
    Having agreed on the result with other posters, I would disagree that Ignatieff has any coatails himself as the MP from the riding to the south. His connection with Lakeshore is only a matter of convenience (much like Dryden and York Centre). Its the extent of the base Liberal vote that keeps both his riding and Etobicoke Centre in Liberal hands.
    11 04 01 MH
    This is another riding that the Liberal candidate won with a reduced but still substantial majority in that (for the Liberals) dismal election of 2008. With Michael Ignatieff running next door, and the Liberal campaign going better than expected nationally, Borys Wrzesnewskyj should win this without breaking much of a sweat unless the Liberal vote in Toronto collapses for some unanticipated reason.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although one of the Tories strongest ridings in the 416 area code, being next door to Ignatieff's riding, I suspect the Liberals will hold this. It really comes down to whether it will be a narrow win or a comfortable one.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Ford's actually from the even less Tory-friendly Etobicoke North, interestingly enough. Just as Calgary routinely elects Liberals to its municipal government, Toronto routinely elects Tories. It might raise the hopes of partisans in federal races, but it doesn't seem to have much of an effect.
    10 11 02 Stevo
    Etobicoke-Centre is the home of Rob Ford, the folksy, staunchly conservative new mayor of Toronto who beat the establishment Liberal candidate (what was his name again? Mr. E-Health?) with landslide victories in the suburban wards. With Ford's administration firmly in place by the time of the next federal election, I wouldn't disregard the possibility of some of the Ford magic rubbing off on federal and provincial Conservatives in the outer-416.
    10 04 04 R.O.
    I have a hard time understanding why this one has been so safe for the liberals and i admit i've been to the riding a few times over the years not during an election unfortuently. but it seemed to be largely suburban neighbourhoods along Islington avenue that i saw although there is alot of larger apartment buildings in other parts of the riding but still. It was in 08 a much closer race than before and the 6000 vote margin of victory by Borys Wrzesnewskyj his smallest ever. as for the future race here its unclear if Alex Kuhn will run again for the conservatives but if he did it might continue to be a close race. although it would of been alot closer last fall when the cpc was way up in the polls then at the current moment .it could still turn into a race by the next election depending on what happens here but liberals have the advantage.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    Given history, why Etobicoke Centre stubbornly can't get the Tory-targetable lead out is beyond me--even the terrific mid-campaign Harper photo-op of Richview Collegiate's 50th didn't help last time. Instead, Borys The Uke (with an assist from a near-paper NDPer and a Green who took ill) bluffed into being the top *Liberal* in Etobicoke! And that was *before* Iggy became leader--now...
    09 09 01 MF
    The Tories may have been able to take this, or at least come much closer, in this once stronghold if they hadn't run such a weak candidate and had instead had someone like Michael Wilson run. However it seems they've missed their chance and this will almost certainly stay Liberal.
    09 08 28 JJ
    A Liberal stronghold. Many Liberal voters sat out in this riding in the last election; this should not be the case with Michael Ignatieff (who can at the very least rally the base better than Dion). LPC hold.

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