Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, Patrick

Clark, Myrna

Jacoby-Hawkins, Erich

Nugent, Christine

Roskam, Darren

Sakula, Jeff

Wilson, Colin

Patrick Brown

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • barrie-simcoe-bradford (148/227 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 03 30 DM
    I have not seen any of Colin Wilson Liberal signs.
    NDP and Conservative signs no Liberal? not made yet? come on Wilson get them out.
    Were is your Campaign office?
    5 days in to election, lets go ah!
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Looking at both the recent provincial and federal elections, it appears the Tories have a floor of 40% and about 10% who are Aileen Carroll Tories, otherwise Liberal if she is on the ballot and Tory otherwise. Since she is not on the ballot, the Tories should get around 50% once again, thus a win.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    In 2004, a lot of people blamed Patrick Brown for blowing this sure thing for the Tories, but I think her absence in 2008, along with the provincial result in 2007, proved that Aileen Carroll is not one to be underestimated. As for the present picture, I think the numbers speak for themselves: an absolute majority with a thirty-point margin would be hard to beat even in a much better year for the Liberals. The real race here is between the NDP and the Greens for third place.
    11 03 28 Bing
    No question that Patrick Brown will hold this seat. Barrie is a traditionally conservative riding and he hasn't done enough policy wise to change that. He's a master at PR and it's going to be hard for any candidate to catch him.
    Easy hold.
    11 03 27 DM
    Myrna Clark NDP Candidate has set up her campaign office in the Bayfield Mall, Barrie. They have a good location and it is well staffed with volunteers.
    10 07 18 R.O,
    Another stop on the liberal express was Barrie which is an odd target due to the significant drop in liberal support since Aileen Carroll moved to provincial politics . Ignatieff came to the city and didn't really talk about anything related specifically to the riding but he did get press regardless of that. The liberals new candidate Colin Wilson is somewhat of an odd choice as his background is the public service as a bureaucrat and he does not really have any profile in Barrie related to elected politics. there was also little interest in the liberal nomination here and he was acclaimed cause no one else ran which in a riding 1 hr north of Toronto is a surprise. i mean 5 people are allready nominated to run for mayor here in the municipal election so there is interest in politics here just wasn't interest in the liberal nomination. anyways Patrick Brown should be able to hold this one as long as he doesn't take it for granted like Joe Tascona did and stays hard at work in the riding .
    09 01 01 A.S.
    IMO it's brash to claim that Brown will do even better next time--that'd practically turn Barrie into a Calgary seat where the CPC's stomping all over three opponents with shares in the teens. Though it's not out of the question, either. But if he does sag, at least in his own share, that'll more likely be a token sobering-up than some kind of Uncle Joe Tascona shocker. And for all one knows, that could be on behalf of bottom-feeding NDP populism, instead...
    09 09 10 Johnny Quest
    Brown will do even better this time.
    Was at a work event in Barrie and one of the guys talking there works on Brown's campaigns and said that they have 3000 lawn sign orders already and based on last time I believe it. Brown will get over 53% of vote
    09 09 10 MK
    Brown won his first election only because of how damaged the Liberal Party was. He was absolutely awful in the debates. He won by so much in the second election because he faced a completely unknown Liberal AND there was a massive backlash against Dion. That said, there's still nobody to challenge Brown, so unless Ignatieff gains a lot of popularity, I doubt a new and unknown candidate will pick up enough steam in Barrie. That means we're stuck with Patrick again.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Brown won by 1500 in '06. He blew that apart with a win by more than 15,000 in '08. His second annual ‘Hockey Night in Barrie’ drew nearly a full house to the Molson Centre, and raised $121,000 for the Royal Victoria Hospital. Pretty hard to campaign against a guy who delivered that kind of cheque. Brown will hold the seat.

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