Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:39:00

Profil de circonscription


Arsenault, Nathalie

Caddell, Andrew

Généreux, Bernard

Lapointe, François

Tremblay, Lynette

Bernard Généreux

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • bellechasse-etchemins-montmagny-lislet (108/207 Polls)
  • kamouraska-riviere-du-loup-temiscouata-les-basques (129/218 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Un analyste dans Le Soleil affirmait que c'est à l'ouest de Lévis et de la Beauce que le PCC perdait des appuis. Il identifiait Lotbinière-Chutes et Mégantic-L'Érable comme menacés. Par contre, à Lévis et plus à l'est, la situation serait au beau fixe pour les conservateurs. D'ailleurs, ce comté faisant partie du Québec tranquille de Pierre Drouilly n'est pas très à gauche, une victoire du NPD m'étonnerait autant qu'en Beauce, quoiqu'elle m'étonnerait encore davantage dans Lotbinière LOL ! Réélection de Bernard Généreux.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    Vote-splitting among the anti-CPC voters, combined with the incumbency factor, will save this seat for the CPC.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    But the NDP are also taking CPC support. Not as much support as they are taking from the BQ but never the less. The only party that they are not stealing support from in Quebec is the Liberals...
    11 04 22 E Rougeau
    Conservative gain after a by-election. Conservative incumbent is well known there and did a good in the region. With de NDP taking away BQ's support, this riding will stay Conservative.
    11 04 18 Matt
    TCTC. While there was talk that the Conservatives could win the by-election here, that they actually did sure surprised a lot of people, even the most optimistic Conservatives. Since the by-election, how much organization on the ground has the local EDA and the incumbent built up? That will be the key to being able to hold this seat. Not having this information prevents me from making a solid prediction.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    The Tories managed to wrestle this away from the Bloc in the most recent by-election. However, by-elections typically have low voter turnouts and those who vote Conservative are most likely to show up thus why the Tories tend to do well in by-elections. At this point, I would give the Bloc a very slight edge, but definitely too close to call.
    11 03 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We reiterate our earlier post; it remains to be seen if the CPC will be able hold this seat.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    With the incumbent's advantage, the Tories should hold the riding. Somewhere between 40 and 45% would be a reasonable expectation.
    09 11 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We'd like to thank Gone Fishing for the vote of confidence. The two of us try to look past all the rhetoric and come to some sort of consensus based upon what seems logical for a given riding (having two very different political points of view, believe it or not, does help with that endeavour). Having said that, and having predicted a CPC win for the byelection, we think it's prudent to point out that the CPC has not proven it can KEEP this riding. We've said this several times, Quebec voters are fickle and have been known to change their minds on a moment's notice. The situation looks good for a CPC keep at the moment but an election is still a very long, long ways off and we are going to reserve any definitive predictions for when the writ is dropped.
    09 11 17 Bergo
    Et oui le taux de participation était bas, mais il l'était pour tous. La réalité c'est que la population voulait du changement et était tanné d'être l'opposition. Les conservateurs ont fait le travail qu'il avait à faire.
    09 11 14 A.S.
    It was an excellent substructure for a CPC byelection steal: the western polls already tilting Tory due to being within existing CPC-QC hinterland; the eastern Bloc stronghold being Mario Dumont country; the collapse of the ADQ not precluding a certain (and moderating) Charest Liberal/Harper Tory bridge (given Charest's federal background, why not); the 2008 CPC share of 30.6% being the second highest in any non-incumbent Quebec seat that year; and a popular-mayor candidate right smack in the middle of it all. Whether it stays that way...well, you can never tell with Harper Tory support in Quebec...
    09 11 10 Gone Fishing
    Many of my fellow pundits from all parts of the political spectrum called this one right here on EP very early on.
    Congratulations for all who had the foresight to read the climate and not necessarily the newspaper. Election Prediction itself got this one wrong as well but people like Smok and Prof Bear and Ape were able to see through the partisan smoke screens.
    This is not the tide turning to Tory Bleu in Quebec. But it could be looked back on that way down the road.
    IF the Tories can hold this seat and continue to offer a viable alternative to Quebeckers the grass roots will do just what has happened across the country. Rural Ridings went blue first and they have slowly made inroads in the nearby cities in places like London, Kitchener Waterloo, greater Ottawa and yes even the 905 belt. 11 seats now in Quebec with many in rural outposts is the same recipe that has worked across the country for the CPC post merger.
    Barring something big going wrong this is something the Blue C's can build on and a half dozen more seats in Quebec puts this party close to Marjority territory.
    09 11 10 Jonathan Deschenes
    Prédiction pour le Bloc dans l'élection générale 2010 (et non la partielle d'aujourd'hui):
    Regardez quelques instants le vote de la partielle de novembre 2009: bien que les Conservateurs aient ‘dépassé’ le Bloc, les Conservateurs ont moins de votes qu'en 2008! Les Conservateurs sont passés de 13 000 votes à 12 000, alors que le Bloc est passé de 20 000 à 10 000! On peut déduire de ceci que c'est simplement le faible taux de participation qui a donné le ‘edge’ aux Conservateurs. Donc, lors de la prochaine générale, la participation revenant aux taux dits ‘normaux’, le Bloc devrait facilement reprendre le dessus. Enfin, c'est si la tendance actuelle se maintient...
    09 11 10 MV
    Basically, this riding is part of the Québec profond (which has nothing in common with Montreal) and was a former Socred riding for some years.
    Also, of note is that this riding is the most French-speaking, the most ethnically homogeneous and the most Catholic in the whole country, so it is true to say that the Conservative are making progress among the more right-wing (and moderate nationalists) voters in Québec outside of Montreal like in the Mulroney years or even in the 1997 election for the PC.
    However, the Conservative win is not a surprise for many reasons, but I am surprised by their strong score as compared especially to 2006 and 2008:
    -The Conservative candidate was widely known and many people were voting more for Crête than for the Bloc since 1993. Provincially, this is not a PQ friendly riding which would rather vote Liberal or ADQ.
    -The gun registry was widely unpopular around the riding as fishing and hunting is as popular here as other rural areas in the country.
    -Also, many people in this riding have many points in common with the Beauce riding such as individual rights and free enterprise.

    By-election Prediction
    November 9, 2009

    09 11 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Highly doubt that this will get posted before the byelection results are announced but we wanted to get our two cents worth. We're going with a CPC pick up. It has all the trappings of a Con steal. It was an ADQ stronghold; it has a creditist past; the CPC is running a popular local mayor; the BQ voting en-masse aqainst C-391 will hurt them. You heard us, the locals are hunters and this is a rural riding; the long gun registry was not popular. Had this been a Quebec City riding up for grabs, we'd say the CPC will be hurt by it, round here it'll help them. It'll be close but we see another Roberval in the making.
    09 11 06 Paul Tremblay
    Some voters in the riding have reported receiving automated phone messages from Jacques Demers encouraging them to vote Conservative.
    Demers mentions among other things that the race is tight and that every vote will count. Will it help the CPC ? I have no idea. Automated phone messages are not usually used by political campaigns in Quebec and this technique could conceivably backfire, even though Demers is quite popular in Quebec.
    One thing that should help the CPC is the recent long-gun registry vote. The registry is so unpopular in the riding that Thomas Mulcair, who does support the registry, admitted this fact in an interview yesterday with Michel Desautels on La Premiere Chaine (95.1 FM in Montreal).
    I have been told that both ‘internal polls’ which gave a Bloc lead came from the Bloc, and that the one which gave them a seven point lead was done after the one which gave them a fifteen point lead. This suggests that the CPC is gaining ground.
    It appears that many local voters like the idea of having a government MP for a change. The fact that the Bloc candidate is apparently viewed as a ‘parachute candidate’ also helps the Conservatives. On the other hand the NDP and the Liberals are working hard in the riding; this suggests that there is a race for third place between those two parties, but their efforts could help to split the federalist vote.
    This race is extremely hard to call but I'll go out on a limb and predict a narrow Conservative win.
    09 10 30 Paul Tremblay
    There are a number of media reports to the effect that the Bloc is ahead of the Conservatives according to ?internal polls? but no one seems willing to say which party is their source.
    One report in La Presse today suggests the Bloc has a seven point lead. Earlier this week Jean Lapierre said on 98.5 FM that the Bloc had a fifteen point lead.
    I would call this race for the Bloc if these polls were known to be Conservative ones. But I have seen too many campaigns leaking phony polls results in order to advance their political agenda and there is certainly a possibility that these polls come from the Bloc or even the Liberal Party (which is not in the race, and certainly prefers a Bloc win to a Conservative one).
    All of this being said, if the Bloc does win this riding on November 9, I would submit that it should be viewed as a disaster and even a humiliation for the Conservative Party. Consider these factors :
    - The CPC had a decent showing in 2008 despite facing an extremely popular Bloc incumbent.
    - Province-wide polls suggest that the Conservatives are more or less where they were in the last general election in Quebec.
    - The riding had a strong Social Credit vote in the 1960s and 1970s and outside of Quebec City itself, former Socred ridings tend to be those where the CPC is more popular in Quebec.
    - The Bloc candidate is not a bad candidate, but she is not particularly well-known or popular in the riding.
    - The CPC candidate is well-known and popular in the riding.
    ... The Conservative Party is apparently working very hard in the riding and these efforts could result in a victory but that's far from certain. At this point I would say that the Bloc seems to be ahead, but the race remains too close to call.
    09 10 20 R.O.
    Its still too early to say what might happen here in the end. the polling from Quebec indicates the conservatives have regained some lost ground and now around 20% in most polls but the bloc still does lead in pretty much every quebec poll and has stronger support in the areas outside of Montreal like this riding. but the bloc for whatever reason has not really done great in by-elections over the years and lost some seats in ridings they did well in during general elections. they'd likely have a better shot at holding this during a general election than the by-election especially when voters know they could elect a member of the government which is usually a significant advantage in quebec by-elections and if you look back over the years other governments gained seats in quebec this way . like thats how the liberals first won Brome Missisquoi and they won 2 other seats in 2003 but lost them after sponsorship scandal . But i don't know if conservative candidate Bernard Genereux will be able to win it or not as quebec at the moment seems to not exactly be the biggest fan of the conservative government but it will certainly be an interesting couple of weeks here.
    Son calme trop t?t pour dire ce que pourrait arriver ici au final. l'interroge du Qu?bec indique que les conservateurs ont regagn? quelque sol perdu et maintenant autour de 20% dans la plupart des sondages mais le bloc m?nent toujours dans ? peu pr?s chaque sondage de Qu?bec et ont le plus fort soutien dans l'ext?rieur de secteurs de Montr?al comme ce prendre. mais le bloc pour quoi que la raison n'a pas fait vraiment grand dans les ?lections partielles sur les ans et a perdu quelques si?ges dans d?barrass? ils ont fait bien dans pendant les ?lections l?gislatives. ils auraient probablement un mieux a tir? ? l'avoir ceci pendant une ?lections l?gislatives que l'?lection partielle surtout quand ?lecteurs savent qu'ils pourraient ?lire un membre du gouvernement qui est d'ordinaire un avantage une significatif ? Qu?bec ?lections partielles et si vous regardez en l'arri?re au cours des ann?es autres gouvernements ont gagn? des si?ges ? Qu?bec cette fa?on. comme ?a Comment les lib?raux ont gagn? premi?rement Brome Missisquoi et ils ont gagn? 2 autres si?ges dans 2003 mais les ont perdus apr?s le scandale de sponsorat. Mais je ne sais pas si le candidat conservateur Bernard Genereux pourra le gagner ou pas comme Qu?bec semble ne pas actuellement exactement ?tre le plus grand ventilateur du gouvernement conservateur mais il sera certainement un couple int?ressant de semaines ici.
    09 10 14 Phoenix
    While the Conservatives may have a shot here, the best they'll probably manage is a strong second-place showing. The Tories may be on the upswing in Quebec, but as of right now, that upswing is generally just a recovery of lost ground, and only places their support at a level that's barely higher than their 2008 showing. In the world of Quebec by-election analogies, the best that the CPC can probably hope for here is a Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot type of strong-second result, rather than a Roberval-Lac-St.-Jean style upset.
    09 10 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Going to add our voices to the growing chorus that the CPC may have a chance at this riding in the byelection. In the past, when the Liberals were the Federalist party of choice (97 if memory serves correctly), the riding was very close. So much so that it was on the Liberal hit list in 2000 (to no avail). Now the CPC have a candidate that tends to win Quebec ridings: a popular local mayor. That's how you win ridings in Quebec, you find places where you have a chance to win, get a popular local politician from the municipal or provincial level and focus resources on that riding. It was how Roberval was won and it appeals to small-town Quebecers. It also doesn't hurt that this is a region that, for all tense and purposes, should vote like ridings to the west of it. The recent bounce in CPC support in Quebec will also help. Bottom line, reasonable chance that the CPC pulls an upset.
    09 10 06 Top Can Inc.
    I'm thinking this riding will remain in Bloc hands, but I'm inclined to think otherwise. The recent provincial by-election in Riviere Du Loup saw the Liberals stealing it from the Bloc by surprise, even though the former MP for the area, Paul Crete, was running. This was also one of the few ridings around the Quebec city area that still had the CPC at second place, with a healthy 30%. If a low voter turnout, combined with strong CPC GOTV operations, and federalist voters uniting under the Tories, the Tories might have a chance. Still, that's a big IF, and the Bloc still has the advantage.
    09 10 05 Smok Wawelski
    Let's not just hand this one over to the Bloc just yet. It is in the Blue Belt of quebec, and so may well be within reach for the Tories, especially in light of the Liberals' Quebec implosion.
    Bernard genereux is a high profile candidate that the Tories have recruited, meanwhile Paul Crete is not seeking his old job, and the nomination has gone to Nancy gagnon, whom I have never heard of.
    I would still say that if people vote on the generic ballot, the Bloc wins hands down, but if candidates turn out to be a factor, The Tories probably have a decent shot.
    09 10 03 Gone Fishign
    Just a thought does the Bloc vote actually show up? With a strong protest element to Bloc vote do they have a need to show up en masse knowing that they will win anyway? An upset would be stunning to be sure but impossible? No idea who could benefit but the Conservative have been competitive here.
    09 09 28 Nick J Boragina
    This is info submitted regarding a possible by-election in the riding, should the Federal election not take place...
    Try saying that 5 times fast. this riding is as francophone as it's name. Paul Cr?te of the Bloc resigned in order to run provincially, he lost that battle. In 2008 he managed 46% of the vote compared to 31% for the Tories. What's surprising is that despite the Tories being down provincewide from 2006, they were up in this riding; in 2006 the bloc took 52% and the Tories took 25%. The 2004 election was a blow-out for the Bloc in this riding, easily tromping the second placed Liberal candidate with almost a 2-to-1 margin. Prior to this, the riding was split in two. In Bellechasse?Etchemins?Montmagny?L'Islet, the Liberals managed narrow victories over the Bloc in 2000 and 1997 (winning the latter by less than 50 votes) Whats more interesting about the 1997 result is that the PC Candidate was only 1,200 votes behind. In fact in 1993, the Bloc only win this riding by 1,100 votes over the PC Candidate. That small of a margin in 1993 clearly speaks to the character of that portion of the riding. In the other half of the riding, Kamouraska?Rivi?re-du-Loup?Temiscouata?Les Basques, the Bloc won without problem in 2000, and managed to beat the Liberals in 1997. Again, we see a PC Candidate here making a very strong third placed showing. That same candidate was defeated, easily in 1993, but held the riding in the 80s. Going back even further, we find some Social Credit friendly territory here. Long story short, this riding does indeed have a true blue Conservative voting base. The problem, however, is Harper, he just is not well liked in Quebec right now. While I do expect the Tories to put up one heck of a fight, I cannot see them winning here, unless something unexpected happens, like Mario Dumont running.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    Bernard Genereux will be the Conservative candidate. It appears that Paul Crete is not interested in trying to get his old job back, and it also appears that the Bloc does not want Crete to try to succeed himself. This riding is federalist and conservative, and there is no doubt that it would have gone Conservative last year had Mr. Crete not been the Bloc candidate.
    With Paul Crete out of the picture this year, the Conservatives will win and it won't even be that close.
    09 08 29 R.O.
    We may or may not see a by-election here but one is possible so any prediction needs to put that into account. the riding has been a solid bloc quebecios seat since 1993 so they have the advantage here but without longtime mp Paul Crete there might be some potential for the other parties here. and the bloc has been known to run much weaker during by-elections and actually lost a few really safe seats that way over the years like Roberval Lac Saint Jean a couple of years ago in that by-election. we also don't know who is going to be running here yet other than the strong possibility that Bernard Genereux runs for the conservatives. the bloc and liberal nominations remain somewhat unknown at this time who might run for them. and looking thru the recent results for this riding it appears the bloc is bleeding votes to the federalist parties although they still got 20000 votes last election that was a drop of 4000 votes from the 2006 total yet all 3 main federalist parties gained votes here even the conservatives gained 2000 votes in 2008 election here.
    Nous mai ou mai ne voit pas d'une élection partielle, mais on est ici possible de sorte que toute prévision doit mettre cela en compte. la circonscription a été un solide quebecios Bloc siège depuis 1993, ils ont donc l'avantage ici de longue date mais sans le député Paul Crête il pourrait y avoir un certain potentiel pour les autres parties ici. et le bloc a été appelé à courir beaucoup plus faible au cours des élections partielles et en fait perdu quelques places réellement à l'abri de cette façon au cours des ans comme Roberval Lac Saint-Jean une couple d'années il ya dans cette élection partielle. Nous ne savons pas qui va être ici encore en cours d'exécution autre que la forte possibilité que Bernard Généreux fonctionne pour les conservateurs
    . le Bloc et les candidatures libérales restent quelque peu inconnus à ce jour qui pourrait fonctionner pour eux. et en regardant à travers les résultats récents pour cette circonscription il semble que le Bloc est le saignement voix pour les partis fédéralistes bien qu'ils Still Got 20000 votes aux dernières élections qui a été une baisse de 4000 voix de plus qu'en 2006 encore les 3 principaux partis fédéralistes a gagné des voix ici même la conservateurs gagnèrent 2000 votes en 2008 d'élection ici.
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    Not so fast to the Bloc! I'd say it was more Paul Crete territory than BQ... If he runs for the seat, he takes it back, if not this could go another way.
    We may be discussing a by-election here soon anyway.
    09 08 24 Observer
    BQ safe territory. No chance for any other party.

    Navigate to 2011 - élection générale | Actualité provinciale | Soumettez l'information ici

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision -
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster