Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Profil de circonscription


Ackad, Alain

Scarpaleggia, Francis

Smith, Larry

Taillefer, Éric

Tremblay, Bruno

Francis Scarpaleggia

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • lac-saint-louis (164/204 Polls)
  • pierrefonds-dollard (23/204 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 26 Marco Ricci
    Yeah, it's possible that the final results may be closer than the 20-point gap the CROP poll showed earlier in the month. I wondered at the time if the Conservatives might be closer to the Liberals than that poll showed. On the other hand, this appears to be a poll conducted for Smith's own campaign, (eg. ‘A Léger poll of the riding for Smith's campaign’).
    Sometimes polls like this have slightly inflated numbers for the person who commissioned the poll. This is why polls commissioned by the Green Party often show Elizabeth May with higher numbers than she actually gets. One final point: the Leger poll shows the NDP with only 17% here. That is only 2% higher than the 15% they received here in 2008, so that could mean the NDP is not making major gains in Montreal the way other polls claim.
    11 04 26 Stéphane Gaudet
    Je maintiens une prédiction libérale pour cette circonscription, mais selon un sondage Léger marketing rapporté par The Gazette, c'est finalement plus serré que prévu: LIB 36%, PCC 30%.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    Yeah I'm with Neal on this one (and I know Prof Ape is too but he ain't here right now). It's not IF the NDP will make break throughs in Quebec but where. Also you have to remember that in Quebec there are two populations who vote very differently. Francophones and Angolophones behave VERY differently. The French will throw the baby out with the bathwater if the mood is right and they want something new (such the case in the ADQ sweep) while the English will be much more cautious and will vote in patterns similar to the GTA. This riding is largely Anglophone which will dampen that Quebec swing effect (as will be the case in Mount Royal, Westmount Ville Marie, NDG-Lachine and Pierrefonts-Dollard). Other places should watch out (I see Jeanne Le Ber being interesting).
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    Teddy Boragina, I think it's important to remember something when trying to predict NDP seats in Quebec: the NDP received 25% of the vote in Saskatchewan in 2008 and didn't win a single seat. A similar pattern could happen in Quebec - the NDP may receive 25% of the vote and end up with very few seats. I'm not saying they aren't going to win any new seats in Quebec, but one has to keep in mind that it isn't how much popular vote you get that matters - it's whether it is concentrated enough to win seats. The Saskatchewan model should be kept in mind over the next week when thinking about Quebec seat projections for the NDP.
    11 04 24 Neal Ford
    Yes Nick, It's me... and the NDP may have numbers in Quebec, they will not win in this riding. my view is that because the NDP lacks a party machine to get out the vote, they will not translate these numbers into very many seats, and lac St Louis will not be among them even in a best case scenario. The effect of the NDP will be to allow Libs and tories to come up the middle in ridings they would not otherwise. The Bloc is not a factor in Lac St Louis either. ridings that could be affected, in terms of Bloc losing to Libs or Tories include Vaudreuil Soulanges, Brome missisquoi, Drummond, Trois rivieres, St maurice, Louis hebert, ABJNE, Chicoutimi Le Fjord, Laval, and a small handful of others.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    Neal (Neal F?) I'm just as shocked as you, but you cant ignore a dozen polls showing the NDP at 25%-35% provincewide, and showing the NDP battling with the Liberals among anglos. With the Tories skimming a few votes from the Liberal candidate, the NDP actually has the math to win here.
    And don't look at me like that. I'm just as shocked as you guys. You can give a dozen reasons why the NDP *should* never be able to win here, but the same could be (and was) said about most of the 41 ridings the ADQ took.
    When you have the math to win, you have the math to win.
    11 04 23 binriso
    It is laughable and very sad to think people still believe the NDP are a socialist party, they have not been a true socialist party since the Winnipeg Declaration of 1956. 55 years. They are merely a somewhat left of centre bourgeois party. And this seat has a solid NDP third place result that isnt far behind the Conservatives, though the Liberals should have this if they are around 35%.
    11 04 22 William K
    I think according to my sources (I am from this riding) that this race will be very tight - not a sure thing. I think the Liberals will take a hit with more votes going to Larry Smith and the Conservatives combined with Liberal votes bleeding off to the NPD.
    11 04 21 Neal
    Nick/Teddy, The NDP will Never, ever, ever, ever, ever ever ever win this riding. Have you ever been there? Beaconsfield, Baie D'urfe and pointe-Claire are very well-heeled areas, majority anglophone, upper income etc. This riding will always be either Liberal or Conservative, edge to the Liberals, except in a year like this when it COULD go either way. But NEVER to a socialist party. Jack's father won it, but he was a PC.
    11 04 21 Teddy Boragina
    I need to cover my butt here. We all know the Tories don't have a chance here, but the NDP might if they really get 30% provincewide. For now, that was just a single poll, and nothing to worry about.
    11 04 20 Neal
    It is really apples and oranges when you try to dub this a Liberal riding going back to the fifties. Conservative John Pratt held it for some time. that all means nothing now, since many of those voters are now dead, and last time i checked there were no Tom Long sightings in the riding.... ;-)
    That being said, the riding has changed since 1984 and 1988 when i ran there. Dorval and what used to be Lachine are no longer a part of the riding (then known as Lachine-Lac St. Louis.) in fact, the case could be made, that since those two towns, heavily dominated by people employed in one shape or form by the airport (or its dependent industries) that they would be more Liberal/NDP inclined than Pointe Claire, Beaconsfield and Baie D'urfe. Given the current make-up of the riding, the Tories should very much be in the game. Let's not forget that Clifford Lincoln could do no wrong in the eyes of Anglophone Quebecers, and now that he is gone, Scarpeleggia's numbers are being gradually whittled away. I woukd say that this is one with the potential of turning Tory blue on may 2nd.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    It's not incorrect to say that this is a Liberal riding. Other than in 1984 and 1988, this area has been Liberal since the 1950's. It was Liberal from the 1950's until 1984, and from 1993 until present. Other than during the 2 Mulroney landslides, it has voted Liberal. Unless the Conservatives win a majority of Quebec seats, I don't think they can win here. Remember, there was a poll earlier this month in La Presse giving the Liberals a 20 point lead.
    11 04 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    And the conservative supporters just ignore the polling numbers and hammer on insisting they're going to win...
    11 04 17 David Anber
    It is incorrect to say that this is a Liberal riding. This was one of Mulroney's strong showings in both 84 and 88. During Chretien, it was always a Liberal riding with a very popular MP, Clifford Lincoln. Even with extremely high Liberal votes under Lincoln, this riding had unusually high number of reform/pc/alliance/conservative votes in the last several elections (particularly in 93, 97 and 2000).
    If/when the Conservatives form a majority it will include this riding, although I concede if the national numbers are too low to give the conservatives a majority, then it will be tough to see this riding change hands.
    11 04 16 George M
    This is and will remain Liberal riding , parachuting a senator backfired on the conservatives . Smith is not effective at all ,
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Local polling has the Liberals by 20% over the Conservatives
    46% Lib, 26% Cons, 12% NDP and 6% BQ
    11 04 09 DL
    CROP did a poll of 500 for La Presse in this riding and Scarpaleggia leads Larry Smith by 20 points (46% to 26%) - it appears that despite all the hype, Tory support is flat in Montreal and Smith is not making any gains compared to the showing of the no-name Tory who ran here in 2008.
    11 04 09 Marco Ricci
    Here is today's poll from La Presse/CROP. It shows Francis Scarpaleggia with a 20-point lead over Larry Smith - 46% for Scarpaleggia, and 26% for Smith.
    According to the pollster, it looks like Larry Smith is making very little difference here afterall.
    11 04 09 Marco Ricci
    We have our first poll of the election for Lac St. Louis, and it's not looking good for Larry Smith.
    On the cover of today's 'La Presse': Sondage CROP-La Presse
    ‘Loin De la Ligne Des Buts - L'ancien président des Alouettes est en voie de décevoir les espoirs conservateurs dans Lac Saint Louis.’
    ‘Far from the goal line - The former president of the Alouettes is on track to disappoint the hopes of Conservatives in Lac St. Louis.
    11 04 07 FP
    I think that people of West-Island know that Liberals take them as granted. That's why Greens get so much there... Somehow like people of Lac St-Jean, who used to be ‘the best separatists’ in the province. This is why a fight to get their votes (on the federalist side) will make this riding interesting.
    That's why this one will shift from Liberals to Conservatives. Especially with comments of Larry Smith on Bill 101... and the intent of BQ to apply it to federal jurisdiction businesses, like banks.
    For one time, the votes of people of Baie-D'Urfe are not taken as granted. And they will be seduced. This is not an immigrant riding (like St-Laurent), but an anglo riding... like pontiac. And it will vote likely. One of the few conservative gains in Quebec, despite Quebec Coliseum
    11 04 05 Marco Ricci
    It is correct that the PC's held this riding in 84 and 88, but don't forget that that is when they had a Quebec Prime Minister who was winning huge majorities in Quebec. Harper is not a Quebecer like Mulroney, and isn't winning huge majorities in Quebec. Having said that, the Conservatives have decent numbers in Quebec right now, and with Liberal support down from 2008, there is definitely the chance to make an improvement here for the Cons.
    11 04 04 Neal
    I used to live in this riding and even ran there once. Remember, Bob Layton held this for the PCs from `84-`93, so it is a riding that the Tories can win. With larry Smith, I believe they have a slightly better than even chance of taking Lac St Louis.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    ‘Although Larry Smith is getting beaten up by Gilles Duceppe and the media, the question is whether this was actually a bad thing for him to do. Is it possible that this was not a gaffe, and that this was deliberately designed to attract Anglophone votes?’
    Very interesting observation and something that does play well with Anglophone Quebecers. Problem West Island, lose 12 other seats elsewhere in Quebec? Don't think the CPC wants to go that way. Probably a gaffe.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    Larry Smith and Stephen Harper were in West Island campaigning today at a big Conservative rally. But what was surprising is that they were in the riding next door - Pierrefonds-Dollard, and not Lac St. Louis. Looks like the Conservatives have succeeded in bringing some motivation and excitement to their team in West Island for the first time since the Mulroney years. How will it play out?
    11 03 29 will1987
    While Larry Smith might help the Conservatives increase their vote total here, I doubt that the Liberal member is in much danger of losing his job.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Federalist parties have put Astronauts and Senators into various Quebec ridings they thought they could win before. Quebecois don't seem to fall for that.
    11 03 30 Marco Ricci
    The campaign has just begun and already Larry Smith is in the middle of his first controversy, by wading into the issue of the French language and whether it needs protection:
    Although Larry Smith is getting beaten up by Gilles Duceppe and the media, the question is whether this was actually a bad thing for him to do. Is it possible that this was not a gaffe, and that this was deliberately designed to attract Anglophone votes? Smith is running in a riding with a large Anglophone population, and this could allow him to attract some of them away from the Liberals to vote for him if they are angry about the language laws. We will see how it develops.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    With polling numbers in Quebec being low for the Liberals and being reasonably good for the Conservatives, this race might be closer than I originally thought. We'll have to watch the numbers over the next month.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Even with Larry Smith's candidacy, star candidacy tends to have less impact in urban than rural ridings, thus the gap is simply too big to cover it. Nonetheless he may be the first Conservative to get over 30% on the island of Montreal since 1988.
    11 03 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Name recognition means didilly where there is a huge gap and a voting tradition for your opponent. As Peter Kent when he ran in in St Paul's. Would argue that Peter Kent would be have had better name recognition that Smith does. There is also the ultimate name recognition in Al Gretzky in '06. There will need to be much more the ‘hey look at me I ran the Alouettes’ for Smith to win this one.
    11 03 28 DB
    I was half right in my early prediction last year. Smith is there but he is not going to win. Scarpaleggia (46%) has a strong lead over the CPC (Andrea Payne's 25%) Even if Smith scrapes off a net 10% off of the Liberals (which is merely impossible) he still does'nt win. I hear there is alot of Larry Who? going on in the ridding, that wont help him either. Iggy's campain , with a good kickoff (you know those Larry?), could very well change the numbers not only in Lac St-Louis but across the bord.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Going to be close especially with Smith's early flubs when he became a senator but I think name recognition helps Smith to win this seat.
    11 03 27 WAC
    Larry Smith running makes this riding interesting. Some people have already made the comparison to Michel Fortier's ill-fated run in Vaudreuil-Soulange last election. While there are some similarities between the two neighbouring ridings (i.e. both went Tory in 84/88 and both held some Conservative strength before the star candidate arrived), I think you should be careful in thinking that a parallel situation will occur in 2011 in Lac-Saint-Louis. An important factor to consider is that the Bloc is a total non-factor in this riding. Since its federalist party vs. federalist party (a rarity in PQ over the past two decades), the dynamics are significantly different such that I would caution using Fortier in Vaudreuil as any kind of precedent. If the Liberals and Conservatives polling numbers hold such as they are in PQ, you have to give the edge to Scarpaleggia at this moment. But its hard to tell - because I have no idea what kind of campaigner a ‘star’ candidate like Larry Smith will be. Should be interesting on e-day and is ultimately TCTC definitely at this point.
    11 03 25 binriso
    Woop de doo a senator is running for the CPC, I remember last time Fortier ran and got swamped in a supposed strong federalist riding and the Liberals are too far ahead here anyways. The CPC may be strong elswhere in Quebec but have been consistently 10 000 votes behind the last two election. Not to mention this Smith character is really nothing special at all, just seems like another party hack that was used to stack the senate for his particular party.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    As I said below a few months ago when Larry Smith first became the Conservative candidate, I think he has about 5 or 6 factors against him, while only about 1 or 2 in his favour. On the positive side, he will have greater name recognition and media attention than other Conservative candidates in this region, and the Conservative riding association is motivated and excited to finally be getting a high-profile candidate for the first time since the Mulroney era. But working against him is that the Conservatives only won this rinding when they had a Quebec leader who was winning huge majorities in Quebec. Harper is not a Quebecer, nor is he poised to sweep Quebec like Mulroney. This riding also has a larger ethnic population than it did 20 years ago, and the Conservatives have not been successful with this demographic in Montreal. In conclusion, in order for a large number of people to vote Conservative in sufficient quantity to overturn such a solid Liberal riding, the question is does Smith have such huge personal popularity that he can turn around a historical pattern? I think the answer is probably no. While he is a celebrity, he is not a celebrity that is known to all voters, nor are enough of them likely to change their tradition of voting Liberal just to vote for Smith.
    11 03 24 P Polson
    Should the Conservatives continue to hold the National lead--it would be obvious here that a Government Cabinet Minister would be better than an opposition member. Apart from that --he is the most focussed and organized manager one can imagine.
    11 03 12 R.O.
    The entry of Larry Smith to the race in Lac Saint Louis is interesting, as its not your typical Quebec riding and has a very small francophone population. So there is almost no bloc quebecois support here and strictly a federalist race. The conservatives have come in second here the last 3 elections but still 20% back and have to grow there support in the riding to catch the liberals. Larry Smith could be the person to do just that but at the same time there is still a liberal incumbent here, so its not the same situation we saw in open liberal seats like vaughan by-election or say Beauce in 06. its also tough to determine if his time as a senator is going to boost his chances or what exact effect that have . Montreal remains an area of liberal strength but they'll have to defend this riding a bit more to keep it than they'd like.
    11 02 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    I almost feel like a conspircy theorist making this post. The story of the day is Maxime Bernier making waves about bill 101 and the Quebec language laws. Conservatives dodge the questions in question period and the opposition go on attack. Bill 101 is still a very, very, very hated piece of legislation amongst Anglophone Quebecers...and who lives in the West island riding?...and where in Quebec are the CPC trying to win seats? It's almost as if Bernier made the comments (was instructed) to win favour amongst Anglophone Quebecers. The more the Liberals protest the angrier these same voters will get towards the Liberals and if this has legs, it may actually get the CPC over the top. As I have said before, all speculation of course and unless we see this run on, the topic will likely fade by the time any election rolls around. Never the less, I am certain right now there are many more English Quebecers who are liking Bernier and maybe, just maybe, liking the CPC a little bit more now.
    11 01 28 Paul Tremblay
    The fact that Larry Smith is the Conservative candidate in Lac-Saint-Louis will not prevent the Liberals from keeping this seat.
    Larry Smith is popular with francophone journalists, but most francophones don't particularly like (or dislike him). As for anglophones, many people still remember his stint as president/publisher of The Gazette, and let's just say that this is not a good thing for him.
    The fact that Smith is not a cabinet member at this point is a detail that went completely unnoticed by a surprising number of voters, and was dismissed as unimportant by many others, and for this reason the whole Conservative strategy has been widely seen as a pure ‘copy and paste’ from the failed Michael Fortier strategy of 2007-2008. As a result of this perception, to a surprising extent the negativity associated with the Fortier disaster has thus been associated with Smith's candidacy and even with Smith himself.
    Another problem for Smith is that he was portrayed as a future ‘minister for Montreal’, the vast majority of voters in this riding are *not* in the City of Montreal and for them, ‘minister for Montreal’ means ‘minister for someone else’. This won't be a problem to the same extent that it was for Fortier in 2008, as Lac-Saint-Louis is at least on the Island of Montreal and therefore the perception that Montreal is ‘somewhere else’ is not as strong as it is in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, but it will still be a problem.
    In addition to all these problems for Smith, the federal Liberal brand remains quite strong among anglophones, and the Liberal incumbent is running again.
    While this race should be somewhat closer than in 2008, I expect at the very least a 5000-vote majority for the Liberals.
    11 01 27 Marco Ricci
    I think it will be a tall order for the Conservatives to win in Lac St. Louis, even if they run a star candidate. I think it will be more difficult to break into than the Toronto 905.
    The PC party was able to win in this region in 84 and 88, but that was when they had a Quebec leader who was winning huge majorities in Quebec. Harper is not a Quebec leader, nor is he poised to sweep Quebec. It was also under the old PC party, which was better at appealing to city voters than the new Conservative party. This riding also has a much larger racial minority population now than it did 20 years ago, and the Conservatives have not been successful with that demographic in Montreal so far.
    11 01 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    An afterthought to our previous post. Perhaps Harper and his strategists really don't think they can win this riding this time. However running a star candidate will put the Liberals on defence in a riding where they have thus far got a free ride. Liberals will be forced to reallocate resources, taking them off the offensive in places like London West or Thornhill and weakening their defences in places like Brampton and Mississauga. This may, by proxy, enable the CPC to win other ridings and if the stars align and hey do manage to take this riding, then bonus for them. This is all speculation of course; however it would explain the strategy behind the CPC targeting some seemingly strong ridings for the Liberals and particularly the NDP (thinking of the CPC targeting Timmins-James Bay and Sackville-Eastern Shore, etc).
    11 01 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    No doubt that there is going to be a lot more interest now that Larry Smith is running. What is really surprising is how long it took the CPC to actually pay attention to a West Island riding. This riding and Pierrefonds-Dollard are the closest thing there is to a 905 riding in the Montreal region (in terms of demographics).Thing is, despite Larry Smith's profile (which may not be as stellar as pundits have been spinning, as we will allude to in a moment) there is a very large gap that needs to be overcome; 11000 votes. Had there been no incumbent, it would be far more plausible but Scarpaleggia is running and that will dimminish the impact. Secondly, the demographics are close to that of the 905 but it's still not the 905. There is a sizable Francophone component to this riding and it seems lately that the CPC are trying to annoy Quebec voters. Third, Montrealers have not been very warm to current right-wing politics. Case in point the ADQ sweep in '06 where they did very poorly in Montreal. Yes we know the CPC and ADQ are two very different entities but the point is that Montrealers take longer to get on the right-wing bandwagon. Now the last point is Larry Smith's profile. Yes he is a star candidate and frankly may make an excellent MP. And yes, there are some who will vote for him because, ‘Duh, he football guy. Me vote fer him diz time’. However that crowd will be counteracted by another demographic: women. Honestly, who knew who Larry Smith was before his jump to politics? Fans of the CFL, who are largely men. Most women wouldn't know who he was. Case in point; recently Dr Bear was in Montreal with his mother and her friends (several of whom live in Lac Saint Louis) and he asked their opinion about Larry Smith. None knew who he was until the line, ‘Oh! He was the one who said he was taking a pay cut to go to the senate!’ was mentioned by one of the ladies. The discussion that ensued clearly showed that they were not impressed by this comment and one would bet that these ladies will not switch their vote to CPC. Bottom line of this anecdote is that Larry Smith may not be as well known as pundits claim. Our prediction at this early stage is that it will be much, much closer than it has been in decades but when the smoke clears the Liberals will still be holding the riding. Another Fortier experience for the CPC.
    10 12 20 JEB
    OK, I wanted to be the first one to predict that (senator)Larry Smith is going to run in Lac St-Louis and win it . Its just no match against Francis Scarpaleggia
    09 08 24 David
    Libéral, ya rien d'autre à dire! Une borne fontaine pourrait y être élue pourvu qu'elle soit rouge.

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