Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

West Nova


Prediction Changed
2010-02-09 09:57:31
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Greg Kerr

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kings-hants (45/227 Polls)
  • west-nova (171/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    10 03 05 Ned
    142.177.212.53
    Thibault will run again and will be strong. He is well liked in spite of his verbal gaffes before last election but Kerr has driven a pile of money in here and Kerr is well liked too. This will be close if the Liberals stay within 5 pts of Cons nationally.
    10 01 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.196.240
    Considering the depressed numbers for the conservatives lately(and we do not YET think the latest EKOS poll is a true picture, but there is a definite downward swing), shouldn't this riding (and a host of others which are currently listed officially either Conservative or Liberal) should be recast as TCTC. At the very least until an election is actually called? It appears that some of the Tory support is soft; I'd be enough to swing this riding.
    09 10 09 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The riding tends to re-elect incumbents?!? Until Thibault was reelected in 2004 and then 2006, it was notorious for *never* reelecting *anybody* since the end of the Diefenbaker era! Otherwise, if one's looking for a Dexter NDP honeymoon effect, keep in mind that provincially speaking in 2009, the seat's half ultra-Liberal (including leader Stephen McNeil's Annapolis home base), half ultra-Conservative (despite Yarmouth having gone NDP back in their 1998 breakthrough); which therefore would foretell the strictly two-way status quo continuing...
    09 10 06 Jean Boudreau
    138.73.161.207
    This will be close but not as close as last election as the popularity of the Conservatives continues to climb. The Cons will hold this riding due to Yarmouth County and the eastern end.
    09 10 05 NovaScotian
    138.73.161.207
    Robert Thibault is a weak politician who made a number of gaffes in 2008. This is a naturally Conservative riding and the riding tends to re-elect incumbents. It will be the same this election
    09 09 30 SouthwestNova
    138.73.161.207
    The Conservatives will get the majority of votes from the western stronghold of Yarmouth County and the eastern military area of Greenwood. Digby County will vote Liberal as usual but this will not be enough for the Liberals to gain this riding.
    09 09 11 Left is Right
    142.177.58.44
    Logic dictates that Libs should win if Thibaut runs again, and it will be tight....but the Cons are pouring money in here and Kerr is well liked. It is a gut feel that the Cons wont let this one slip away.
    09 09 04 R.O.
    209.91.149.231
    This is likely the riding that has flipped between the conservatives and liberals the most in Nova Scotia over the years i discovered well searching thru its history , but mp's still get re-elected here i noticed. i'd say Greg Kerr has the advantage here as he has been mp for a year now and almost won the riding back in 06 as well. he's also been active in the riding and brought numerous federal projects and funds to the riding from what i have read. as for the opposition its unclear who they will even run here and if former liberal mp Robert Thibault is in or out of the running.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    24.222.12.42
    This riding could be yet another rematch for Kerr and Thibault. Thibault defeated Kerr in 2006 by 500 votes and Kerr defeated Thibault in 2008 by 1500. If Thibault is the Liberal nominee again it will be the third time in three federal elections they will run against each other. Either one could take the riding. The NDP are not a significant factor in the riding. The riding has a long history of being bounced between Liberals and Conservatives. This one will be too close to call.



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