Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Brison, Scott

Morse, David

Richardson, Sheila

Rogers, Mark

Hon. Scott Brison

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kings-hants (182/227 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 R.O.
    Scott Brison has survived some pretty bad elections like 2000 pc disaster but can he survive this year is the question now that liberal vore much lower than dion in 08 nationally ? conservatives have stronger candidate than usual in David Morse and Harper making campaign stop in the riding . not really sure what happen here but it might be more interesting race to watch than first though. final outcome might depend on how ndp does in the riding and if there numbers go up or not.
    11 04 30 Labrador Tea
    I think there will be a three way race. Much of the riding is within a Provincial riding that voted N.D.P. in the recent Provincial election. The coming visit from Stephen Harper is an indication they believe there is potential for the Conservatives to win. Of course, Scott Brison is a favorite in terms of the local representative, but people I've talked with have indicated they are questioning the advantage of having Brison represent us. Traditionally Nova Scotia ridings have been about the local representative, but there is an increasing uneasiness about supporting Ignatief or Harper. The N.D.P. have traditionally trailed here, but it could change if the youth vote that has stayed home before makes it to the booth on Monday.
    11 04 29 tabhairteach
    No runaway for Scott this time. He has actually called in a marker of support from Joe Clark, no less. Clearly there will be a personal vote for Morse and he will have taken back some of the experienced machine that Scott took with him when he crossed. Not many signs but quite a few showing NOT HARPER. Although Rogers [NDP] showed very well in the debate, he really hasn't campaigned strongly and any benefit from the orange surge would probably draw equally from blue and red. Also a 70% increase in the advance poll likely means a lock-in advantage for Brison. Closer, but not TCTC.
    11 04 28 E Church
    This is going to be very close. Especially since Harper is making a campaign stop in Windsor on the eastern part of the riding. He must think he has a shot here and Brison still might come out on top but it will be closer than previous elections.
    11 04 28 mad caper
    Although Geoff Regan has the advantage of incumbency and a comfortable margin of victory he is in for a tough fight from the New Democrat challenger Gregor Ash. The N.D.P. momentum shift may be the factor that decides this race. Close one on election night. TCTC
    11 04 27 Walkinhawk
    i know people feel that this is a safe seat - it is not we are talking 2 % points. this site is a beauty as it is just a few people guessing - no hard facts but the pm doesn't drop in at the end of a campain for a losing seat. west nova was the same situation in 08. scott may win but that is because he got his vote out - a vote that will be demoralized - the opposit of the conservative vote
    11 04 24 John
    If David Morse was leader of the CPC, then he would be able to unseat Brison, but until then, Kings-Hans favouriate Red Tory keeps this seat red.
    11 04 04 tabhairteach
    Those who don't like Brison [few] have a choice between a total unknown on the left and a nice guy, former provincial PC cabinet minister, who will merely keep a somewhat conservative face in a constituency that just doesn't trust Harper. Reality is, Morse would have fit better under Stanfield. He'll never be nasty enough to fit in with this crew. So, no change here.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    The Liberals have a real knack for attracting MPs who are capable of building personal fiefdoms - Brison is one of them. He'll hold on here for as long as he wants, and the Tories will only make it a real target once he's gone. No doubt, they'll come in a reasonably strong second this time around, but it won't be enough.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    This may have once been a Tory stronghold, but Scott Brison has enough popularity to easily win this. Never mind in the last three elections, he has consistently received around 45% and the Tories around 30% while the NDP in the teens and I suspect it will probably be close to that in the upcoming election.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    With the CPC headed towards a possible majority I can see this being a target seat for them. David Morse is a strong candidate. Brison's going to be tough to beat but I think Morse wins a close race.
    11 02 25 R.O.
    The conservatives have found a new candidate here , that being David Morse who had been a progressive conservative mla for the area at provincial level . with a much better candidate than last time i wouldn't be surprised if things got a bit more interesting here . although Scott Brison still has the advantage and high profile in Ottawa but i see the conservatives at least trying harder here than last time or why go to all the trouble of landing a well known candidate .
    09 09 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    What was once a somewhat interesting riding to watch, has become a total snooze-fest. Brison is well too liked to lose. He could pretty much run for any party and win here.
    09 09 19 straightshooter
    The NDP will not be strong. Mike Savage is like Peter Stoffer....well liked by everyone, and a strong national presence too. Strong Liberal.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    Another Liberal hold in Nova Scotia. Scott won by more than 6000 votes in 2008 and is a popular MP. No change in 2009
    11 04 28 not a granny
    This riding has been under the national radar as it was not considered a close race. Incumbent Liberal Scott Brison, a party favorite and a clear winner in previous elections, was expected to win easily going in to the elections first week. However, David Morse, a former provincial Conservative MLA and respected, experienced politician has come on very strongly since the local debate.
    Suddenly, Kings Hants has come to the attention of the National Conservative gurus as a riding that could flip to the Conservatives at the expense of a high profile Liberal, and be an early bellweather riding on election night. This has resulted in a probable visit from Mr Harper to the riding this Saturday, the last weekend of the election, a clear indicator that the Conservatives see Kings Hants winnable and David Morse as a viable victor.

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