Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:33:00

Constituency Profile


Dewar, Michael

Kutcher, Stan

Leslie, Megan

Nikolaou, George

Seed, Tony

Megan Leslie

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • halifax (161/212 Polls)
  • halifax-west (62/223 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Haligonian
    Just Quinpool Road? I don't think so. Try 99% of the South End and huge chunks of the West End, not to mention the rural areas of the riding. Let's face it ... the NDP wouldn't have pulled that stunt with the Coast if you guys didn't know you were in trouble. Of course you're entirely innocent of that, aren't you? Just like that hole in the wall massage parlour was a clinic? Right. This is not going to be a walk for ML. Not by a long shot.
    11 05 01 MB
    This definitely wont be a NDP landslide. Far from it. Leslie's expenses raised a lot of eyebrows, especially her travel. People aren't happy with that kind of waste. Kutcher's got a good reputation and attempts to slam him by the Coast backfired. This is at least TCTC.
    11 04 30 Dubya
    We are at the end of the campaign and nothing has changed my prediction. In fact, Megan Leslie for the NDP will increase her vote total from 2008. Seems they have run a strong and steady campaign. Lots of signs and media. A bunch of big signs went up in the lst day or so mostly on places where there were no signs at all. Megan has also had a high profile for the NDP appearing almost nightly on major media. Only surprise here on election day will be the significance of the increase for Megan Leslie.
    11 04 30 CC
    Uh, no this won't be going down to any wire. This will be an NDP landslide. Every bit of regional polling we've seen the last two days (save Nanos) shows the NDP soaring (in some cases leading!) in Atlantic Canada; do we think that a solid incumbent seat held solidly by the NDP for 14 years is going to flip when the party is polling at record highs (yes, including in this region) predicted to win as many as 109 seats to a party that's falling apart from one end of the country to the other (in almost all regional polling we've seen the Liberals are down in this region from 2008 and in some cases way down). Megan Leslie won by 7000 votes last time, this time will be at least that high (I predict higher).
    Oh, and Kutcher is not ‘winning the sign war’. Not in the North End, not in Fairview, not in Spryfield. Those will be the areas where the NDP builds up its' huge margins. The only place Kutcher is ‘winning the sign war’ is on the heavily trafficked Quinpool Rd. And if asked, I would have to agree, Kutcher is very likely to win Quinpool Rd. If there was a race for Member of Parliament for Quinpool rd. he'd have a very good chance but sadly there are other communities where it won't even be close.
    11 04 29 Haligonian
    Not so fast. An Omnifacts poll was released this morning showing the Liberals in the lead in Metro ridings. The record of Darrell Dexter’s provincial NDP is a factor in this election, like it or not. Megan may hold on to her seat, but that’s not a given. This one’s going down to the wire.
    11 04 28 mad caper
    While things looked interesting at the start of this election in this riding the recent surge in support Nationally for the New Democrats has put Megan Leslie back in the driver seat in this riding.She should increase her margin of victory by another 2000 votes on election night.
    11 04 27 Haligonian
    The previous poster obviously doesn't live in Halifax. The CPC candidate has no chance whatsoever of getting past a distant third place. The incumbent is NDP, so there's no ‘sneaking up the middle’. The Liberal Kutcher is winning the sign war but Leslie is a likeable and known quantity. A lot will depend on the youth vote and what ‘progressive’ conservatives decide to do. This really is too close to call.
    11 04 26
    With the surge in N.D.P. support accross the board and the strength of the Tory candidate in this riding it is quite possible that the N.D.P. could sneak up the middle in this riding as they have this recent history of displacing the Liberals in this riding.It will be interesting on Election night
    11 04 22 Nova Scotian
    I predict an NDP win here but it will be much closer than last time. From what I hear many people voted for Megan last time as the successor to Alexa however since then she hasn't met their expectations and this election they will be voting Liberal. Dr Stan Kutcher is a strong candidate for the liberals as well respected physician in the Halifax area. I expect him to close the gap. The conservative candidate is unknown so this is an NDP-Liberal race. Still the liberals lost by 15% or nearly 7,000 votes in 2008 and that is a lot of ground to make up. I think the gap will narrow but this riding will remain NDP, especially with hundreds of students headed to advance polling after the Halifax Youth Flash Mob today
    11 04 21 Buck
    No question that this will be tight. CPC is running a stronger candidate than last time, which will take some support away from the LPC. While there are lots of Kutcher signs in the ‘south end’, Leslie appears to be dominating in other parts of the riding. Kutcher, like his leader, rubs a lot of people the wrong way!
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    Although the unpopularity of the provincial NDP may hurt them a bit, the NDP's national strength should cancel this out, so a nod to the NDP here.
    11 04 19 Dubs
    I have been spending quite a bit of time in Spryfield and the ‘Halifax Atlantic’ area of the Riding. Megan Leslie signs are everywhere - even in Sambro. No other campaign seems to have reached out this far. Support for Megan seems deep and for good reason. She is on the radio or TV every week speaking about Health policy and I like what I hear.
    11 04 18 Halifax Left
    Some people talk about how great Leslie is, but more and more are asking where the substance is. Yeah, Leslie has a lot of signs up in the Cental Halifax and the North End, but she has few signs in the South End, West End or in the portion of the riding the is the provincial riding of Halifax - Atlantic. The Grits are a lot more organized then they have been in recent years and Kutcher has been working his tail off and has been everywhere on social media. This one is not a NDP gimme and has a good chance to go Liberal with a little more support from the national campaign.
    11 04 15 SMU Student
    The Chronicle Herald said Megan Leslie won the most amount of applause from the audience from yesterday's debate at Saint Mary's University. This will give he even more momentum this election.
    The Herald also had strong praise for Green Party Candidate Michael Dewar.
    11 04 07 Melanie
    I live in the north end of Halifax. All I see is Megan Leslie signs. I haven't seen one sign for the psychiatrist Stan Kutcher. Megan seems to be dominating in my part of Halifax.
    11 04 06 AMT
    I think and also hope that Megan Leslie and the NDP will hold this seat. Megan Leslie has been everywhere in her riding since becoming the MP, from town halls to community meetings to church bazaars. She truly has a community presence. Beyond that, she is well respected in Ottawa and has but forth impressive bills (Ntl Suicide Prevention Strategy, Housing). She is also working on a bill for a national Pharmacare strategy, which would help all Canadians. My impression is that Halifax is proud that she is a ‘new’ type of politician-one who listens to every voice with very little ego and who puts her money where her mouth is.
    Beyond all this, we need more women in the House of Commons.
    11 04 05 Cat Man
    I see the two posts below by SMU student. While I have not been on the two campuses referred to I can say that the comment about the rallies is silly. Some friends of mine went to the Jack Layton rally and they said the numbers were over 500 and that the room was packed. The Ignatieff rally was also very large but I understand it was a Nova Scotia wide rally with supporters bused in from all over the province. So, the two rallies are not really comparable.
    As for my neighbourhood. A couple more Megan Leslie signs went up today so the orange out numbers red and blue by about 10 to 1. Red and Blue signs are equal.
    11 04 05 SMU Student
    Both Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff were in Halifax over the weekend. Michael drew 1000 people to his rally. Jack only drew 150. I'm sure the difference mostly stems from timing and advertising for each event.
    Either way, it shows the Grits are either more organized, or the base is more energized. Probably more organized. Let's see if this affects the outcome.
    11 04 03 Cat Man
    Megan Leslie signs are everywhere in my neighbourhood in central Halifax. Only a few Liberal and Conservative signs. People see to genuinely like Megan. She is young and has new ideas and energy. Folks also see her in national media as a health critic and like that she has a national profile.
    11 04 02 SMU Student
    Typically there are plenty of comments about Megan Leslie receiving generous support from students. However, over the last week it seems the the Young Liberals on the Dalhousie and Saint Mary's campus have had a strong presence compared the the NDP.
    If it is true that Leslie's core support is coming from students, then there should be some concern for Leslie's campaign. The NDP need to have a stronger presence from the two largest Universities in her riding.
    11 03 30 Method Man
    I have been doing polling in this riding for a few days and can tell you that it's not as close as the Liberals would have you believe.
    Leslie continues to hold a very legitimate lead even in the more affluent neighbourhoods in the riding.
    My polling has not even taken into account the student vote, which has been largely behind the NDP in this riding for nearly a quarter-century.
    Leslie will win this riding with less of a margin than in 2008, but only due to the Liberals taking votes from the Conservatives.
    11 03 28 scoale
    Megan Leslie is not your average incumbent. She rose from unknown status in 2008 to a rising star in Ottawa. Halifax is proud of her accomplishments, residents know she was the parliamentary rookie of the year as voted by all MPS of all stripes.
    She is everywhere in Halifax. This seat has long been an NDP seat and Leslie has proven that strong representation in Ottawa combined with a solid presence on the ground, in the community engaging with people and their issues will solidify support.
    The Liberal candidate is the only real challenger and he comes across as arrogant. They've been working for months and yet the city appears to have made up its mind. NDP signs outnumber Liberal signs 5 to 1.
    People know and love Leslie.
    11 03 27 Social Democrat
    As for Dexter being hugely unpopular, that's not the case. The party dipped recently in the polls due to tough decisions in getting NS's fiscal house in order after years of Tory/Liberal mismanagement. But the NDP are still tied for first place with the NS Liberals. So if Dexter is hugely unpopular, what's that say about Liberals? And even with those poll numbers, the NDP would still win if an election was called due to how support is spread out around the province.
    Leslie wins without difficulty as she did against a Liberal candidate in 2008 that was better than the Liberals have running this time.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Halifax has long been NDP territory, that doesn't change in this election.
    11 03 23 lawstudent
    Kutcher seems to have been out & about everywhere these past six months while Leslie has been tied down in Ottawa. The only time she's in town she seems to be at a poetry reading on Agricola or something along those lines - not exactly expanding her base. Apparently she's been knocking doors now and has been doing so with NDP MLAs like Preyra which is a huge mistake - Dexter is largely unpopular and that association is not something she should play up. It'll be tight, but if Kutcher is organized enough, he could pull it out.
    10 03 23 DW
    Megan Leslie has been a rising star in Ottawa and as a local MP here in Halifax. She was voted ‘Best Rookie MP’ by MPs of all political parties. Megan's use of the infamous ‘10 percenters’ to promote local artists and by turning her office into a local art gallery has distinguished her from other MPs. Her base of support will only grow.
    10 03 05 Ned
    Should stay NDP.....but this is the riding most sensitive to the plummeting popularity of Dexter's team. Kutcher is impressive candidate, in a bohemian, urban way. Leslie is not very active in the riding, this could hurt her if it gets close, but she should pull it out.
    10 02 26 election eye
    Stan Kutcher is an interesting candidate, and Leslie is certainly weak. But even with falling support for provincial NdP , the Party will rally to hold Halifax....even it means giving up totally in Hal West and Dartmouth.
    09 09 23 Anon
    The Liberals had an excellent candidate running, who was hard-working and charismatic, with a background in grassroots organization. Instead they chose Stan Kutcher, a fellow famed across the city for his arrogance who ran a lazy campaign and won only due to the riding association's familiarity with him. The more doors he knocks on, the fewer votes he will get. Megan Leslie wins in a landslide, probably by more than McDonough ever did.
    09 09 11 Left is Right
    Leslie is no juggernaut, but NDP will hold this one. The Liberal nomination race is interesting, and they will close the gap. But NDP should hold by about 3000.
    09 09 01 MF
    I agree with EP's call for the NDP here. Apparently this was merely an Alexa McDonough seat and yet Megan Leslie was able to win it by a very wide margin. Furthermore the NDP won a massive victory in Halifax provincially, which is likely to have some positive spillover federally as well.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    This is going to be one of the most exciting races to watch in Nova Scotia. This will be a two way race between the NDP and Liberals, which could end up just as close as the 2004 results with either party capable of winning the seat.
    For the Liberals, in the past two elections they have lacked sufficient ground organization, and have been held back by the sponsorship scandal and leadership issues. Both of those issues are off the table this time around and they have a hotly contested nomination race which is strengthening their ground organization. However they have a 6,800 (15%) vote gap to make up.
    As for the NDP, they have held the seat for almost 12 years, but current NDP MP Megan Leslie had Alexa’s coat tails to run on last election. However, Leslie has preformed well in Ottawa and has received recognition to that effect.
    This race could be determined by the ability of the NDP in Halifax to maintain its support level. We saw some NDP support lost in the last election in Halifax (down 4.1% or 4178 votes) while the NDP actually gained support nationally. Recent polling has put the NDP slightly below their 2008 election results. How will this translate into support levels in Halifax?
    Should the NDP popular vote stay in the range of 2008 and 2004 (42-43%) it will be a tough fight for the Liberal candidate to pool enough support to topple Leslie. However, if NDP support dips to 40% or below, it’s a more open race which will be a photo finish between the two. The Conservative vote will also play a role in the outcome, as a decrease in Conservative votes should disproportionately help the Liberals.
    Voter turnout will also be a huge factor. Almost 5000 fewer people voted in the 2008 election than the 2006 election while the population had increased during that time. Will they vote this time? Who will they vote for? Can any candidate or party inspire more people to vote?
    To conclude, Halifax in 2009 could look much like it did in 2004. A close race with many different factors affecting the eventual outcome. Halifax is simply too close to call right now.
    09 08 23 Halifax Grit
    There is a heated Grit nomination race taking place in Halifax right now. Long time Dal professor Stan Kutcher is taking on community activist and business person Chris Crowell. The Grits have a real shot here if they go with Crowell. Many within the party feel that something different is needed and Crowell's ability to organize at a grassroots level was proven through the East Coast Connected initiative. If the Grits counter the NDP and Leslie with someone that is young and energetic but with strong connections in the business community, they will pull this one out in an election where the economy is going to be a key issue.
    09 08 23 Observer
    Halifax is now a NDP stronghold provincially and federally. Good incumbent NDP MP, Megan Leslie, who got recognition by winning the ‘Best rookie’ award in Maclean's third annual Parliamentarians of Year awards.

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