Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Cape Breton-Canso

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Carabin, Glen

Cuzner, Rodger

Kennedy, Derrick Clarence

Simmons, Marney Jeanne

Rodger Cuzner

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bras-dor-cape-breton (177/188 Polls)
  • pictou-antigonish-guysborough (32/217 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 RMC2011
    NDP surge or not, this seat will be won handily by Liberal Rodger Cuzner. The geographic makeup of the riding is quite huge, taking in the provincial ridings of Glace Bay, Cape Breton West, Richmond, Inverness and smaller areas of a couple of other ridings, including an area on the Mainland side of the Canso Causeway. Cuzner is well liked and his support stretches across party lines, particularly in his home town of Glace Bay, which he happens to have to himself this time out. The NDP may pull votes from the other end of the riding, where the candidate hails from Guysborough County, but she will have a hard time trying to pull votes away from Cuzner on the Cape Breton side of the riding. The Conservatives are trying hard, but unlike the other Cape Breton riding, will probably have little chance of winning. Derrek Kennedy seems to be a decent candidate, who has been on the campaign trail for quite some time, but I don't know much about him. He may get some help from the fact that both Alfie MacLeod and Allan MacMaster's ridings fall in the federal riding, but it didn't help last time, probably won't help this time. Cuzner should sweep Glace Bay, Inverness and Richmond, while coming out on top of the ballot in Cape Breton West (where Kennedy resides) making his way back to Ottawa for another term.
    11 04 25 WAC
    Notwithstanding the NDP national surge, unless the Liberal party vote collapses over the next week - its hard to see anything but another Cuzner.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Notwithstanding the NDP win in 1997, this has long been a Liberal stronghold and they have won by large margins in the past few elections. The real question is will they get above 50% or not, not whether they will win this or not.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Don't know how the Liberals do federally in the rest of Nova Scotia but I see them holding onto this seat.
    10 07 23 Mad Caper
    With the resurgence of the New Democrats across the Country the New Democrats may be able to climb back into contention in this seat. The recent release of Mr.Cuzner’s expense totals for the year 2008 at half a million dollars has many people shaking their heads in disbelief. this is an issue that will not go away due to the Provincial expense scandal being kept in the public eye by the media. As the election looks to be a go you can count on both the Tories and the N.D.P.to keep Mr. Cuzner feet to the fire on this issue. Should his grip on the riding start to slip away look for the New Democrats to slip up the middle and squeeze out a tight win on election night.
    09 09 14 Brian A
    Of the two Cape seats, this one is the least likely to change hands. Cuzner is a very popular MP that focuses heavily on local issues. He's entrenched.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    This will be a hold for the Liberals. Cuzner is a popular MP with a large and diverse support base. Cuzner won with 48% of the vote in 2008, 25% ahead of the second place finisher.

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