Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Prediction Changed
2011-05-02 02:13:00

Constituency Profile


Austin, Rick

Cleary, Ryan

Coady, Siobhan

Sullivan, Loyola

Siobhán Coady

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • st-johns-east (16/224 Polls)
  • st-johns-west (167/226 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 05 02 MF
    Ryan Cleary came extremely close last time to taking this riding, and with the NDP surge I expect him to take it this time.
    11 05 01 Ron F
    I will add my voice to the chorus. The Liberal prediction is not taking in consideration that there is an orange wave in St. Johm's. Cleary is personally dynamic and popular. He is a good fit for the working class nature of this riding. He will win a three way race.
    11 04 29 j.c
    As a voter in this district I will let you know my thoughts. I've also heard similar arguments from others.
    -#1 priority is to not elect a Conservative Gov't.
    -There was a trend 2 weeks ago to vote Liberal to accomplish this
    -But with the NDP surge and the Liberal Fall nationally, Cleary's visibility in the district during the campaign and a poll showing the conservative well behind, many people are choosing NDP
    -Also, if you add that traditional Tories who will not vote Liberal, they'll vote NDP to block Harper
    NDP victory on the 2nd
    11 04 28 keefr
    There is enough of a national ‘surge’ that it should give the NDP sufficient boost to capture their second NL seat here, though it will doubtless be a close race. NDP by 500
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    I doubt that people are predicting Siobhan Coady is toast yet since she was ahead in a poll only 2 weeks ago with good approval ratings and is still the incumbent. It's certainly possible she could lose if there is an NDP surge in Newfoundland, but it is too soon to know that. Cleary still has some credibility problems based on being fired from his radio show and for quitting the NDP last year and then coming back at the last moment. The question is whether Coady can still attract the majority of voters who want to block the Cons here.
    11 04 26 DL
    The NDP surge will carry Cleary over the top - pundits on TV say that the Liberals are privately acknowledging that Siobhan Coady is toast.
    11 04 25 DK
    The NTV poll has Sullivan far back of the dogfight between Cleary and Coardy at the fead of the pack. Factoring in Iggy's unpopularity with Newfoundland and Labrador voters, this race is Cleary's to lose at this point.
    11 04 24 odude22
    Let us take a closer look at this one and start beginning:
    Election 2008: LIB 43%, NDP 40%, CPC 12%
    1. Siobhan Coady is extremely visible in this riding. Always out with the constituents, on Facebook, newsletters, and attending almost every community event.
    LIB +5, NDP -3, CPC -2
    2. Loyola Sullivan is the Conservative Candidate in this riding. Normally this would be a large boost, however it is not just Sullivan, it is Sullivan AND Harper. It will boost, but not as much as it could under a different leader.
    LIB -4, NDP -4, CPC +8
    3. NDP Support has surged across the country and with Ryan Cleary running again this will be beneficial.
    LIB -3, NDP +5, CPC -2
    4. However, Cleary has not had the best of luck since the last election. Cleary was fired from his Radio Call-in show and that whole controversy surrounding that will certainly hurt the NDP in this riding.
    LIB +3, NDP -6, CPC +3
    Projected Results: LIB 44%, NDP 32%, CPC 19%
    NDP support goes down in this riding. But still has a respectable percentage. Siobhan’s support increases slightly and with Sullivan the Conservative percentage does go up, but with Harper at the reigns of the party, and the NDP so popular, there is no chance of Conservative success in this riding for a long time. This riding will go between the Left-wing parties for many years to come.
    11 04 23 Marco Ricci
    NTV/Telelink Poll: Liberals: 26.3%, NDP: 23.8%, Conservatives: 17.5%
    Very close race between Siobahn Coady and Ryan Cleary according to this poll, although one factor in favour of Coady is the 72% approval rating.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    I'm going to take a risk and try to predict future poll numbers. The NDP's gains in Quebec seem to be realistic, if they can hold on, I fully expect the NDP to jump in English Canada. It does not take a very large jump for them to win this riding, especially if the candidate is of ‘star’ quality.
    At the risk of looking foolish, I am projecting the NDP here.
    11 04 22 CdnPolitico
    I don't care if you all keep predicting an NDP win -- there is value in being the incumbent... and Coady is that and has worked that riding hard for the last 2.5/3 years. So Jack has alot of momentum... but the reality is that Coady is not only well-liked but a hard-worker... she'll win in a squeaker and then Cleary can go back to hating the NDP for another few years until it's politically expedient for him to try and get a new job.
    11 04 22 rabbit
    i assume the final result will be determined on organization- ndp close within margin of error of local poll-can local contributors advise us who has the best organization ? I assuming the Tory vote in riding still will still hold firm even with local newspaper poll result just published
    -any loss by Liberals to the NDP may be important if polls show them close or if the NDP leading in national polls for 2nd place -
    -will a NDP gain in St John's South along with the other safe NDP seat be the first results on May 2 that will foreshadow PM Jack Layton by the end of the year ?
    11 04 21 binriso
    Ignatieffs campaign is sagging a bit and Layton has much more momentum nationally. Should be an all NDP St Johns. And an in riding poll places the Conservatives back 10 points from the NDP and Liberals who are within the margin of error.
    11 04 21
    The Cons campaign has collapsed locally and the Liberal national campaign is imploding..This will be a NDP pick up
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    Given the apparent strength of the NDP Candidate, I'm removing my CPC prediction. In a 3-way race, anybody could win.
    11 04 20 tooclosetoocall
    Latest NTV/Telelink Poll
    SJSMP Poll: LPC 26.3; NDP 23.8; CPC 17.5; GPC 0.7; UND 28.7; REF 2.9; SAMPLE 411;
    MOE +/-4.8
    With Jack Harris virtually a lock in SJE:
    SJE Poll: NDP 44.9; CPC 16.6; LPC 2.9; GPC 1.0; UND 27.8; REF 6.9; SAMPLE 421; MOE +/-4.8
    the NDP will be able to pump resources into SJSMP pushing Cleary over the top.
    11 04 18 Long Time New Dem
    I predict the NDP for a number of reasons:
    1) People despise Harper. The strong tory support found on the southern shore is no longer part of the riding. Sullivan isn't in this race, this one is between Coady and Cleary.
    2) Many voters that used to support the Progressive Conservatives don't like Harper because he stole their party and is worse than most Liberals in terms of secrecy and corruption. These voters NEVER, almost irrationally NEVER, vote Liberal. They will support Cleary as they did in the last election, and probably more so this time after he came so close in 2008.
    3) Cleary has proven himself with the traditional NDP supporters...check out his website, there are pictures of union leaders and well known artists campaigning with him. that didn't happen last time as Cleary was a New Democrat for only a few weeks before the writ.
    4) Coady doesn't have Dunderdale on the doors with her like she did in 2008.
    5) Coady 'symbolically' voted against Harper's 2009 budget, but then voted in favour of it when the vote really counted. (budget implementation votes I think?)
    6) Jack Harris is very well respected! 76% of the vote last time!
    7)Jack Layton is the most popular of the three national party leaders, and is moving up in the polls.
    It's going to be close, but it's going to be Cleary that gets the win!
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    The question here is what effect Ryan Cleary will have on the race. He seems to be a bit of a loose cannon. He was nominated to be the NDP candidate, quit and severed all ties with the NDP, and then changed his mind and got re-nominated. The issue in this riding is where will the anti-Conservative vote go? Since Siobahn Coady is already the incumbent and has proven she can win, one would assume it would mainly remain with her. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for anti-Conservative voters to leave the incumbent and move over to the 2nd place finisher from last time, but one can never know for sure. If Coady can keep the Liberal and NDP vote mainly behind her, I think she has a small edge over Conservative Loyola Sullivan.
    11 04 16 MF
    With Ryan Cleary running again for the NDP (who just came short of taking it) and Loyola Sullivan running again for the Conservatives, this looks like an interesting three-way battle here, now that there isn't an ‘ABC campaign.’
    11 04 16 dave
    Coady's internal numbers show her behind.--Historic Conservative riding.
    11 04 14 MC
    Coady will win this in a fairly close race, but not against Cleary, who will be in third place. Sullivan will try to coast along on his past record, but his recent coziness with Harper will not serve him well.
    The only way a fired radio show host can impact on this race is as a spoiler, but I think most people will recognize this and the anti-Harper vote will get behind Coady.
    Also, looking around the riding, I've never seen anywhere near as many signs for Coady before - she likely won a few people over with her strong performance in Ottawa and massive visibility in the riding.
    Coady by about 1,500 votes.
    11 04 12 rsg
    An NDP prediction in this riding is ludicrous, It's between Coady and Sullivan, Cleary will not be a factor here at all. The NDP vote nationally is in a free fall.
    11 04 11 Social Democrat
    Ryan Cleary will be able to pull this one out. Coady ran previous times in 2004 and 2006... receiving mid to low 30's. She got a huge boost from the ABC that finally put her over the top. I think Cleary did benefit as well but a lot of his support was from being... Ryan Cleary. Similar to the Jack Harris effect in St. John's East who took almost 60% of the vote with the Liberals taking a 22 point dive and the Tories a 37 point dive.
    The Tories will do better but there's still a large anti-Harper vote. All these factors point to an NDP Cleary victory.
    11 04 10 Rob
    Siobhan Coady has been running a very strong campaign and despite having the PC party's support, there is still very much a hangover in Newfoundland regarding the ABC campaign. I think Coady has a lot of respect in the region and she is viewed as a very hardworking/devoted MP and for that reason I think she holds on.
    11 04 10 R.O.
    still too close to call not sure what happen here , its an unusual race as all 3 parties very strong in the riding. but its guaranteed conservative totals increase over very weak 08 numbers and Loyola Sullivan a good candidate . Siobhan Coady has the incumbent advantage but historically liberals not as strong in St Johns as they were during abc campaign of 08. there best chance to keep seat may have been an extremely weak ndp campaign but thats not going to happen as Ryan Cleary back and ndp thinks he has chance so there likely to focus some effort here. it all makes for an odd 3 way race as St Johns had historically been very safe for the tories.
    11 04 09 KRB
    Coady had ABC and Dunderdale and the NL PC's canvassing for her in 2008. All three of those factors are gone now, and the latter two are going in the opposite direction.
    Barring some breakthrough for LPC nationally, they could only govern in a terribly weak minority/coalition/parliamentary alliance that always would require the Bloc's support. So no chance of any Lower Churchill agreement.
    Coady's been given prominence by the LPC b/c they know only too well the fight she's in. St. John's wins all around with CPC representation, so I'd be shocked to see anything other than a CPC win here on May 2nd.
    11 04 05 CdnVoter
    In 2008, under a crappy leader and a very good NDP campaign, LPC won in a whisker. It was like a tentative ‘Ok, we'll give you one shot’ type of endorsement.
    One of the reasons that I love Newfoundland so much is that the citizens of that province value hardwork, integrity, decency and a genuine personality who is willing to stand up and fight for the values of The Rock. Coady has been everywhere, working her heart out for her constituency and her province -- I believe the voters of St. John's South-Mount Pearl will reward that commitment with a second term. She may not win in a landslide, but my bet is that she'll win by about 1,400 votes.
    11 04 03 John
    One thing going for the Conservatives this time around is Danny William's retirement. He worked pretty hard last election to make sure no federal Conservatives got elected, and with him riding off into the sunset, that may take some of the pressure off.
    May not turn either of the two too-close-to-call ridings in Newfoundland into Conservatives seats, but Conservative candidates may have a stronger showing this time around.
    11 04 03 Penney
    Ryan Cleary should be showing on here as the NDP candidate - and one who will pull a lot of votes in this riding. What's up with the page showing a race only between the Liberals and Greens?
    11 04 03 jeff316
    Ryan Cleary's shot was last time. This time he is the spoiler for Siobahn Coady
    11 04 03 Simon
    Siohan Coady has done an incredible job these past three years and should not be under estimated. And where has Loyola and Ryan been? Loyola was invisible as the Ambassador to Fisheries and Ryan was fired from VOCM Nightline. Siobhan maintained a 12,000 vote in 2004 and 2006. If she can maintain that vote, she'll win. Ryan and Loyola are overrated!
    11 04 02 J Keller
    This is my most contentious pick, and the one I'm most likely to change.
    I call it barely for Coady / Liberals for these reasons:
    1. Manning will win and it will be obvious to everyone that he will win, so there will be NL representation in any surviving Harper cabinet. No shutout.
    2. NDP dissension will put pressure on NDP and Green voters not to give Harper another +1 in NL.
    3. Coady is personally appealing, popular, smart, scandal-free, facebooked.
    4. NL just isn't the same place - the old guard's approach to federal politics no longer works in a ‘have’ province focused on modernization.
    5. Loyalty to Williams may still be a factor, though I sort of doubt it.
    I could change this view before the election if the Liberal vote in the rest of Atlantic Canada collapses or the NDP or Greens irrationally surge and split the vote badly nationwide.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    Last election this was a close Liberal-NDP race. Looking at the votes, it appears, much of the NDP vote came from disgruntled Tories who couldn't bring themselves to vote Liberal. Although the NDP could win, it doesn't seem likely as their base is pretty weak here. With Loyola Sullivan running and the fact he would almost certainly be a cabinet minister bodes well for the Tories, but despite the fact the provincial PCs maybe willing to forgive the federal Tories, I am not sure all former Tories in Newfoundland are. The Tory vote will improve dramatically, but considering they only got 12% last time around, they would need to at least triple if not quadruple their vote to take this. Until I see a more detailed poll of Newfounland, I will leave this as too close call with all three parties having a chance at winning.
    11 03 31 Stevo
    Apparently ‘Loyola’ is a very popular name in these parts!
    I don't think the Conservatives have a shot at taking this back and will instead focus on winning back Avalon with Fabian Manning.
    11 03 31 Jordan
    I think this is going to be very close. While many think Loyola Sullivan has the upper hand going in, including myself, Siobhan Coady secured 12,000 votes in 2004 and 2006 in this riding finishing a very strong second to Loyola Hearn. I believe she won about 15,000 last election, but if her support is at least 12,000 then she could do quite well and could take it. Ryan Cleary won't have a chance under the NDP but he will be the deciding factor. While Sullivan is well known and respected this isn't even his riding so that could play into this as well. I expect that this riding could be just as close as it was in 2008.
    11 03 29 ATGM
    Looks like the Conservative candidate is going to be Loyala Sullivan. I expect the NDP vote to evaporate here and Coady will have difficultly holding on to more than 35% of the vote. Call it 45-35-20 result.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Conservatives win here again especially if Loyola Sullivan runs. If Sullivan runs look for him to be NL's rep in the federal cabinet.
    11 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    People seem to be stating that the CPC are going to take this one. Well good for them...except...they don't have a candidate yet. And we haven't been able to find out when the nomination is going to be. Odd. You'd think they'd be putting more effort into this one given that it IS winnable and Ms Coady had the audacity to stand up to Baird's bullying in committee and embarrass the government. Not convinced yet that the CPC are taking this one too seriously...at least not just yet...
    11 03 22 O'Brien
    Liberal support in NL has been more than halved:
    Coady barely won in '08 with the ‘perfect storm’ of factors working for her then. This one's a real race this time. . . if any of the talked-about Conservatives run in this riding, they'll have a solid chance of taking it.
    10 12 04 Marco Ricci
    Ryan Cleary has quit as the NDP candidate for this riding.
    Until the NDP finds another high-profile candidate for this riding, I would give Siobhan Coady the edge since she won last time and has now been the incumbent for the past 2 years.
    09 10 20 R.O.
    The real question in newfoundland and labrador is how long does the province want to be left out of the federal government ? sure they have Fabian Manning in the senate and is another vacant Newfoundland seat harper could fill but to not have a single elected mp in the government surely must be a concern especially with the prospect of the conservatives being in power longer and possibly with a majority . and its actually very rare for a province to not elected any mp's from the government . believe its only happened a few times , think PEI in 2006 was one and Nova Scotia in 1997 another but other than that its pretty rare. and surprisingly as unpopular as the liberals are out west not one of those provinces didn't have at least 1 liberal mp during 93-04 elections. but looking at the 7 Newfoundland seats , i'd say this one and the avalon riding be the conservatives best shots although both realistically are not exactly tory pick ups at the moment but if they were to win back something you'd have to think they'd be the most likely. and i don't really have any idea what the tory's be doing for candidates in these ridings either, they'd need someone pretty strong to have a shot.
    09 10 07 A.S.
    It isn't just that it was a Loyola Hearn riding rather than a CPC riding; it was a PC riding rather than a CPC riding--but it's a little uncertain how much Hearn support slid to the NDP or to the Liberals (or other little rejigs of whose former support went where). Anyway, I, too, would agree that the '08 result suggests a new electoral order where, as in the Halifax area, even a somewhat ?recovered? CPC is more likely to be an eternal third leg rather than the powerhouse the Tories once were...
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Very interesting race. We're going to argue that this was a Loyola Hearn riding not so much a CPC riding. Maybe in the past it was (and maybe will be in some future scenerio) but we think the wins were for Loyola himself. Now if we look at the past results, obviously Siobhan Coady was personally popular as she has always kept the race interesting are fairly close (inching ever so higher every election). However the NDP was never a lost cause. Now the interesting thing is that much of the vote that used to go to Hearn went to the NDP in '08. That would suggest that what DL said below is true; St John's is becoming more like Halifax in its voting trends. We also agree with Nick that the CPC will regain some ground. Not to the point that they will win, but they will recover somewhat. Question is where will that vote come from. If the NDP vote was very soft then Siobhan keeps this. If a CPC recovery erodes Liberal support, then the NDP will win it (a real possibility with Harris' win next door). We're going to wait until an actual election before we call this one.
    09 09 30 DL
    I'm not sure what the poster below means about polls showing any Tory recovery in Newfoundland. Forgive me if I've missed something but I haven't seen any federal polls in Newfoundland since the last election. Atlantic polls seem to show the Tories in third place. It was always kind of a historic anomaly for the Tories to ever hold those St. John's seats. I think that now that the Tories have lost those seats they will probably NEVER win them back and St, John's will start to mirror Halifax in its voting patterns.
    09 09 20 Nick J Boragina
    Some submissions seem to have vanished? So I will restate mine - The Tories will in fact take this riding. Once they return to historic support levels (and polls show they are getting there) they will be able to retake their historic ridings. Unlike this ridings northern neighbour, this riding does not have a star to knock off.
    09 09 15 Super genius
    If one accepts that the tories will gain even a little back of their support in NFLD, (which I think on some level is a given) we have to ask where do those votes come from? Sure some tories likely stayed home last time,but more likely, the parked with the Liberals. Sure some would have parked with the NDP, but not as many. So assume the tories gain 4000 votes. 1000 coming from tories that stayed home, 2000 from tories that parked with the libs, and 1000 from tories that parked with the NDP. This scenario sees a thin NDP gain.
    09 09 13 Observer
    Predicting a Conservative win in St. John's South-Mount Pearl is madness. Conservatives are wiped out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Harper is hated all over the province. The contest is between NDP-Liberals.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    Don't be so sure the Tories cannot win here. In fact, with recent polls showing a Tory resurgence in the Atlantic, this riding might in fact be first to fall on the rock. While the Tories will get a higher popular vote in Avalon, this riding has a very good chance of splitting it's left, anti Harper, Liberal-NDP vote. With ever fewer anti-Harper voters out there, I'm actually projecting (at this time) that this riding will go blue.
    09 09 06 Pundit
    I have to think Siobhan has the upper hand. It was a tight race last election, but Siobhan has been making her rounds in the community like a mad person- attending every community event, holding town meetings, and speaking with some big name Liberals. Ryan Cleary doesn't have a problem being visible, but he didn't work all that hard since the last election on getting out there, either. Him quitting the open line show smelled of blithe political opportunism, the same as when he first ran for the NDP. He badmouths the NDP, then runs for them when he thinks he has a shot at an MP seat. It doesn't sit well with voters.
    Siobhan is far from perfect, but nobody can say she hasn't made an incredible effort at getting out into the community and hearing from people. I think the inroads she's made in the last 10 months have secured her an electoral win- tight, yes, but I think this seat is most certainly hers to lose.
    09 09 05 pollwerker
    Loyola Hearn once told me that one thing Newfoundlanders don't do is send NewDemocrats to Ottawa. Now we have to accept that the other St John riding did just that last time around. The reason of course was that the Tory vote disintegrated and many conservative voters voted NDP for the first and perhaps only time. Newfoundland politics isn't so much about policy or ideology so much as it is a nearly tribal loyalty, voting Liberal would be just a bridge too far. The anti-Harper sentiment can't last forever and the Tory voters will start drifting back.
    09 09 05 Snow
    Although it was a tight race in 2008, I do not feel it will be as tight this time around. Siobhan Coady has been tremendously involved in the community. She is everywhere - always accessible to her constituents, i.e. during her numeorus town halls. Ryan Cleary has lost credibility because he was fired from his recent job as a openline host on VOCM. People will not forget that. I predict Coady will win!
    09 09 05 pollwerker
    Loyola Hearn once told me that one thing Newfoundlanders don't do is send NewDemocrats to Ottawa. Now we have to accept that the other St John riding did just that last time around. The reason of course was that the Tory vote disintegrated and many conservative voters voted NDP for the first and perhaps only time. Newfoundland politics isn't so much about policy or ideology so much as it is a nearly tribal loyalty, voting Liberal would be just a bridge too far. The anti-Harper sentiment can't last forever and the Tory voters will start drifting back.
    09 08 29 Insider
    I'm not from St. John's but do read LibLogs where there's a dedicated local who attacks Ryan Cleary on a weekly basis and thinks he's a major threat. Probably TCTC, maybe leaning to Cleary
    Contrary to the last post, this article (which was linked by the Liblogger) seems to confirm Cleary is in fact running:
    09 08 28 binriso
    If the NDP could get Lorraine Michael they’d win pretty easy. Other than that, they still could win since they were very close last time.
    09 08 28 DL
    YOu're mistaken. Ryan Cleary who came very close to winning for the NDP last time has said that he wants to run again and he's even better known now since he has been hosting an open-line radio show for the past year.
    09 08 27
    The only reason the NDP came close here was the candidate was a locally well known newspaper columnist. I hear he is no longer the candidate for some reason. Easy Liberal hold.
    09 08 24 Observer
    No one predicted the excellent result for the NDP. It came one thousand votes of winning. I am sure Jack Harris is going to give a lot of help to the NDP candidate in the next federal election.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster