Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Barrett, George C.R.

Larkin, Jacob

Penashue, Peter

Russell, Todd

Todd Norman Russell

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • labrador (76/76 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 expat
    Picking this as a NDP upset on the basis of the strength of the candidate seems like a stretch -- Larkin was the nominee in 2006 and finished a very different 3rd with 9%. Unless a huge orange wave is sweeping into Labrador from neighbouring Quebec (not likely - Labrador politics are emphatically oppositional to everything Quebec), it is hard to figure out how he can more than treble his vote to be competitive with the two high profile Liberal and Conservative candidates. He may improve on past NDP showings here (and Labrador has the right combination of aboriginal and labour votes to someday be good NDP territory, they've elected MLAs in the past), but will be very lucky to make 20%.
    Russell seems to have a solid hold on the riding. The margin will go down considerably from last election's astronomical 70% - thanks to a changed political environment in N&L, partly to a very solid Conservative candidate this time. But Russell should end up with a fairly comfortable victory.
    11 04 26 DL
    As crazy as this may sound - I'm hearing from sources in Newfoundland that this may be an NDP upset as the orange wave sets in. The NDP candidate is a local principal and is well known.
    11 04 25 Rob
    Too close to call. Both campaigns have indicated to me their internal polling suggests it will be a very close race and each suggests their own party would win. This is a liberal riding traditionally, one of the safest in the country but this election will show a much tighter race than previous ones. The south coasts is 100% in the bag for Todd and so is much of the North coast but Goose Bay is definitely learning conservative. The battleground is most certainly Labrador City which has the most electors.
    11 04 23 Dave
    I agree that a lot of people will remember that Todd Russell is against the Muskrat Falls deal that the province has proposed. That is why he is going to win big. Peter Penashue has a lot of baggage even in the Innu communities. Definitely NOT too close to call.
    11 04 10 Rob
    This should be moved to ‘too close to call’. This riding has typically been a Liberal fortress and has only veered away from the Liberals on two occasions, however the Provincial PCs are campaigning hard against the Liberal incumbent Todd Russell and Peter Penashue has a lot of support in the Lake Melville region. This riding will go whatever direction Labrador City goes as the South and North Coast will vote primarily Liberal with the Innu towns of Natuashish and Sheshatshui voting primarily for Penashue. The CPC candidate has a lot of credibility and a lot of people are intending to vote for him so it will be close. A lot of people in the riding remember that Todd Russell is against the Lower Churchill development and will vote accordingly.
    11 03 31 rytech
    Peter Penashue has now been confirmed as the Conservative candidate for Labrador. TCTC.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has long been a Liberal stronghold with only a few exceptions and although I expect the Tories to cover some of their lost ground, I highly doubt they will take this. Chalk this up as an easy Liberal win.
    11 03 29 ATGM
    This is going to depend alot of on whether the Conservative candidate is Peter Penashue. If it is then this will be to close to call as he will attract a lot of Innu voters. If you look at the 2006 results you see a 50-40 split for the Liberals so don't write off the Conservatives here.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Apparently the CPC have a well-known person running for them, much better than the candidate from last time. Still they have ran well-known candidates in 3 of the past 4 elections in this riding and still lost, no change this time.
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Russell has never got lower than 50% of the vote and got over 70% last time. Why would this change now?
    09 08 24 Observer
    Until the Liberal Party ceases, dissolves, merges or don't contest the election, it will win in Labrador with more than 50% of the vote.
    11 04 28 Rob
    Liberals will hold a race that is extremely close and could potentially be too close to call. No chance for the NDP candidate. Being from the riding and knowing individuals from everywhere there it is clear that the choice is between Libs and CPC

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