Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:05:00

Constituency Profile


Bridger, Clyde

Hynes, Aaron

Kenny, Robyn

Simms, Scott

Scott Simms

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bonavista-trinity-conception (112/290 Polls)
  • gander-grand-falls (161/192 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has long been a Liberal stronghold with only a few exceptions and although I expect the Tories to cover some of their lost ground, I highly doubt they will take this. Chalk this up as an easy Liberal win.
    11 03 29 ATGM
    The Liberals should win here but it will be a 50 - 40 split, similar to the 2006 general election. Gander has not been very kind to the Conservatives historically, so I can't see this changing.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    The Liberals hold onto this seat, the CPC's have no candidate here yet and Simms seems popular.
    09 10 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Again, another situation where the Liberals didn't win many new votes but rather Conservative voters stayed home. These voters will be back and most likely vote CPC again but that wasn't enough to win it for the Cons even before the ABC campaign.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    Unless there is a backlash again Danny Williams, Scott Simms will hold this riding. He is popular in the former Senator George Baker riding, and the riding has only gone Progressice Conservative briefly once by Rex Barnes. Unless the Conservatives can run an exceptional candidate who can fight against another uncoming ABC, expect the Conservative vote to stay home once again.

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