Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

West Vancouver-Capilano

Prediction Changed
12:42 PM 17/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Audain, Tunya
Marley, David Owen
Petrossian, Eddie
Platt, Terry
Sultan, Ralph
Green Party
Windsor, Ryan

West Vancouver-Capilano
(Approx. 80% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

West Vancouver-Garibaldi
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

WHITTRED, Katherine
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 06
Ralph Sultan has this in the bag. Game, set and match.
Do you think West Vancouver Capilano is going to trust an ethically challenged (edited) stock-broker over a Harvard educated former Royal Bank Economist with strong character?
I do not think so.
Editor's Note: Mr. Petrossian's campaign raised objections to various references on this site about his disciplinary record as a registered representative in the investment industry. For the record, he was found to have committed professional misconduct (not convicted of any crime) and was suspended from practice (not banned).
09 04 27 Jack
I really think its impossible to state what will happen in the riding. The assumption that Marley, Platt, Windsor and Petrossian will do poorly is rather moronic. But the reason why I think its impossible to call the riding is that the chemical make up of the riding has changed. Most BC Liberals are basing their assumptions on past elections. That?s highly inaccurate. With Petrossian and Marley tossed into the race it has totally set the riding off whack and the election will no doubt be dependent on their results. Its impossible to say that Sultan will win, or Marley, or Petrossian, or Platt, or Windsor. I think its fair to say that all of these so called ?predictors? work for the candidates in question. At this point my only prediction will be shocking/surprising results.
oh and PS I worked on Blair Wilson's 06 and 08 campaigns. Marley never walked in the door.
09 04 25 binriso
Even back when the Liberals were a marginal party, like winning 2-3 seats in an election in the 60s and 70s this seat and ones around it in North Vancouver have been the ones they have won. Ray Perrault and Gordon Gibson represented parts of this riding, two former Liberal leaders, and a bunch of the Social Credit MLA's who represented the surrounding ridings in the 70s and 80s defected from the Liberal Party. History is really on the Liberals side and frankly I dont see how any independent can beat them here, the Conservatives will win no more than 10%, if that, and the NDP and greens will likely be in the 15% area with the Greens probably lower than 10%. Liberals will likely win with at least 50% and probably closer to 60% or even 70%(some polls put them 7-8% higher than 2005 although thats only one or two). Unless there is a poll out that shows somewhat of a close race, people will likely not be swayed to support the independent candidate either.
09 04 23
These predictions that it is a 3 way race and that David Marley will be a spoiler or can win tells me one thing, the people that are suggesting it are not in reality or they are in a completely different universe.
West Vancouver Capilano even before Social Credit is a BC Liberal riding - Allan Williams.
It will take a completely disastrous campaign ala Rita Johnson for that to happen.
Ralph has this completely locked up.
09 04 22 Dale Handle
Subjective: David Marley claims to be conservative but supported the disgraced Federal Liberal Blair Wilson and signed a public letter demanding that Harper step down as opposition leader before the 2006 election. He's not at all a conservative, nor is he a liberal (he attacks them in broadcast emails). He's the party of David Marley. He will campaign well however. The BC Conservative Candidate also has a past to overcome in a region that has enough of those (see above re: Blair Wilson) but the name brand will drain votes from both Sultan(BCLib) and Marley (Other). Sultan has been a hard working MLA who's spent a lot time in the community, he'll do just fine.
Objective: This is one of the safest seats for the BCLibs based upon the last two elections, but voter apathy and social engineering policy (ie carbon tax) from the BCLibs will significantly lower their vote count this time around. The independent Marley will be lucky to get to 20%, the BCCons 10% to 15% (based upon the nameplate, not the candidate) and the NDP perhaps 15% to 20%. This leaves 45% for Sultan and the BCLibs. It will up to them to get their vote out.
09 04 21 Predictor
It would be inaccurate to suggest that Eddie Petrossian to have been convicted of any crime. However one must question the wisdom of BC Conservative Leader Wilf Hanni for accepting Eddie Petrossian to run as a candidate at all. He was found to have committed professional misconduct by the Investment Dealers Association (now Investment Industry Regulatory Organization) and his bizarre antics was covered by the Vancouver Sun.
Here is a link to the Vancouver Sun story:
Here is a link to the IDA misconduct finding:
Going through and stealing other people?s mails are pretty shady stuff. Consider these misconduct findings are in the public record, why is he still a candidate is beyond me (NDP dropped Ray Lam after some stupid skin pics for crying out loud!)
09 04 19 Taylor
I'm working on Petrossian's campaign and let's face it stats point towards a 3 way race between Sultan, Petrossian and Marley. Really this election will be dependant on Marley's turnout. If he does well Sultan will have a tight election to deal with if he doesn't do well Sultan will most likely be reelected. I honstly don't think Petrossian's past will affect him he's payed his price to society.
But no matter what it won't be an easy election for anyone incumbent included
09 04 01 Seer
I respectfully disagree with the previous prophets. I predict David O. Marley will squeak through. All who have observed Eddie Petrossian are amazed at how he can work a room but his legal problems are bound to catch up with him. [see http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Ocean+luxury+condo+investors+take+bath/1297206/story.html ].
More importantly, Marley is a former Socred unlikely to attract committed NDP or Green supporters. The WV-Cap Lib support seems a mile-wide and an inch-thick. Voters there seem to just need an attractive, small c-con alternative to Sultan, whose talents have been wasted by the party system and the leap at it. His cute flying pig campaign buttons are getting sighted in the strangest places in WV-Cap.
I predict a squeaker for David Marley, independent, in West Vancouver-Capilano.
09 03 30 WH
How can any person in their right mind call this riding for a BC Conservative? Even if Ralph was to somehow lose this safe Liberal seat, what makes them think some nobody (edited) would sweep in and be elected? Gives your heads a shake.
09 03 15 Predictor
I'm afraid I'm going to have to once more disagree the Liberals are on a very slippery slope and Sultan hasn't been active in the community. David Marley and Eddie Petrossian have been campaigning their @$$3$ off and will be syphoning off a majority of Sultan's votes. I'm calling this one for Petrossian simply on the facts that this is a very conservative party by nature, he?s the most aggressive candidate and since Marley is in a position to capture both NDP and Liberal Votes
My Prediction
Eddie petrossian- Conservative
By a Margin of less than 5%
09 03 09 binriso
This is literally the safest seat in the province for the Liberals, with a 50 point margin above the NDP and more ahead of smaller parties. Probably a chance for 2nd for a non-ndp candidate but winning is definitely a stretch.
09 02 23 Predictor
I'm calling this one for the Conservatives. Their candidate Eddie Petrossian has been campaigning heavily and is in a place to steal the Liberal vote.
09 01 17 Predictor
North Shore has arguable been the most reliable Liberal bastion in Greater Vancouver. Easy Liberal hold.

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