Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Esquimalt-Royal Roads

Prediction Changed
10:02 PM 02/03/2009

Constituency Profile

Karagianis, Maurine
Ratsoy, Carl Edward
Green Party
Sterk, Jane

(Approx. 85% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

JAMES, Carole
Victoria-Beacon Hill
(Approx. 15% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 odude22
Jane Sterk has gained huge popularity across this riding. I believe she will surprise many and take this riding, not by a majority but never the less, she will be successful.
09 05 07
Judging from Jane Sterk's disappointing performance at the leaders' debate and the stagnancy of the Green Party in the polls, I highly doubt the Green Party will do well here. The high 2001 numbers were protest votes from voters who didn't want to vote for either of the major parties. That protest sentiment has disappeared.
09 05 04 RetroRyan
The posters who claim that the Greens will take this riding are fools. The NDP will take this one in a walk judging from the massive amounts of NDP signs on the lawns out there.
Redistributed, the results of the last election are as follows:
Liberal: 8683 37.12%
NDP: 11953 51.11%
Green: 2383 10.19%
Others: 370 1.58%
Also, in the televised leaders debate Jane Sterk promised to raise punitive taxes on car owners and hence I doubt if she'll get any sympathy votes from the BC Liberals in this riding.
09 04 26 binriso
Id be surprised if the Greens got much more than 20%, meaning the NDP should win with around 50% of the votes this time.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
Election after election, Green supporters flock to this site to explain why X Green candidate will win Y Green riding. The Greens couldn't even win a riding in 2001 when the left abandoned the NDP en masse and they had a much better known leader.
Granted, Jane Sterk has done well in municipal politics in Esquimalt, but even if she can wrestle Karagianis to a draw in that municipality, she still has much of Metchosin and Colwood to contend with where the NDP is strong.
Karagianis will win in a landslide, but Sterk has a shot at coming second. Unfortunately for you Greenies, not even that is a certainty.
09 04 03 Laurence Putnam
Just because ?so and so? a ?well known? city councillor, town sheriff, whatever is running doesn't mean they will win. It's proven time and time again. It was even the sad footnote to Bill Vander Zalm's career. The safe money is on the party brand. If Carr couldn't win in Powell River, a riding that did have an independence streak to it - Sterk who the average British Columbia has still never heard of, has no chance. NDP wins.
09 02 19 DL
This is a supersafe NDP seat and anyone who thinks the green leader has a prayer is simply delusional. She already got a humiliating 7% of the vote in the recent Vancouver-Fairview byelection and she only got 10% in this same riding in 2005. This seat went NDP by 4,000 votes last time and on top of that, redistribution adds even more solidly NDP territory that comes out of Carol James's riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill.
09 02 11 vancouverpointgreen
Jane Sterk is very strategic and an excellent debater. Locals frustrated with the partisan camps of the NDP and Liberals may just want to give the Leader of the BC Greens a shot in office. Any side of weakness from either side will boost her numbers as she represents a centrist and more realistic position than the previous leader, Adrianne Carr. Quite a Green area with strong polling numbers at the civic, prov. and fed. levels. Jane Sterk had the strongest numbers when she was elected Councillor in the Civic Election in 2005.
09 01 23 Cyndanne Augusta-Hardy
In a recent article in the newspaper it said a Sterk VS. Karagianis race. The Liberal candidate has yet to be nominated and a party-spokesperson said that the nomination contest won't be held till mid-February or later!
I see some Liberals switching over to the Greens for this one if it looks like a close race.
Sterk ran in Karagianis' riding before her run for councillor. Seeing as Sterk topped the polls I expect Esquimalt-Royal roads (where I live) to be a close race between the NDP and GPBC.
I think it'll come down to how many Liberals will the Greens be able to swing over.
09 01 20 GMY
Does anyone know who is running for the Liberals in this riding? With a possible vote split between the Greens and NDP, a reasonably strong Liberal candidate stands a good chance.
09 01 19 Burt R
As much as I would like to see Jane Sterk elected. She is going to get thumped in this upcoming election. Karagiannis is one of the BC NDP's top performers and also a former long time member of Esquimalt council. As for Sterk's performance in the municipal election, take a look at how low turn out is and you'll notice that the difference between first and last (often in a thin field) is not very impressive. Karagiannis romped to victory in 2005 and will have no trouble winning in 2009. The real question for me is who will come second.
09 01 18 VanToria
It would be nice if the Greens could finally break in, but it will never happen until there is electoral reform. Sterk being leader has no real impact. Just look at Carr's federal and provincial performances. There is no record of Green success to argue for a Green win. Karagianis will hold this seat for the NDP.
09 01 17 p. kelly
I'm getting a little tired of how some think that just because the green leader runs in a seat that it will vote Green in the election. Adrienne Carr couldn't win, she came in third in 2005. Elizabeth May couldn't either. Greens bring an important set of arguments to the table, but they're not going to win seats until we change the electoral system. This area is a working class area of greater victoria and its NDP roots are deep...no change - this is an NDP seat.
09 01 14 rhudson
If Jane Sterk, BC Green Leader, runs here...then look out. She's a former Esquimalt councillor (who recieved the most votes of all candidates, I might add) and her presence as party leader can only help her.
Unless the NDP can replace the sitting MLA with someone more effective, then I think this seat will be the first BC Green seat in the legislature.

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