Prediction Changed
11:00 PM 05/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

York South—Weston
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

York South-Weston (100%)
Paul Ferreira

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO for the Laura Albanese campaign.

07 10 08 Plain Jane
Paul Ferreira has not stopped campaigning since he was elected, he's been kept in the media more than any other New Democrat with the exception of Cheri DiNovo, and has made incredible inroads into the community. The Liberals are kidding themselves if they think this riding can be wrestled away.
07 10 08 binriso
Im going to call this for the NDP but its going to be a real squeaker probably by 500 votes or less either way. Historically it is NDP territory provincially, pre-1996 but all 3 times it was their leaders who won the seat which accounts for 46 of 53 years from 1943-1996. I really cant see people de-electing someone after only a few months on the job but it could happen. Itll be close.
07 10 08 Election Observer
I disagree with the Liberal prediction. I grew up in this riding and the last time I saw so many NDP signs was when Bob Rae won the Premiership. There is a high population of low income and working class people who would find Hampton's ideas for this segment of the population very appealing. This riding will be orange on Oct. 10th.
07 10 08 Pete B.
This is one of only 2 predictions in the 416 area that I disagree with EPP(the other one is Willowdale). Although I believe this is still TCTC, with Liberals surging, there will be less pressure to vote anti-PC and Ferreira just may stay in!
07 10 07 binriso
Hmm i was pretty certain the NDP would win here but the PC's are dropping like a stone. Enough votes might go back to Laura Albanese and Paul Ferreira could be the only NDP incumbent defeated.
07 10 07 King of Kensington
I agree with Marshall Howard Bader on this one. Paul Ferreira is personally very popular and his appeal crosses partisan lines. I think he'll win a lot of non-NDP votes the way Michael Prue does. Assuming he makes it past this election York South-Weston will become a safe Ferreira (if not NDP) seat.
One person I'm sure who is secretly hoping for Ferreira to be re-elected is Frances Nunziata - because she will have real trouble keeping her City Council seat if Ferreira runs against her again!
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Of the three major parties in this province, nobody does a better job during bye-elections than the NDP. They bus in union reps from all over the province an put an army of people on the street. That's what happened last year when Paul Ferreira road the NDP machine and a protest vote to victory. Sadly for Ferreira, the army of volunteers from all over the province isn't available during a general election and the NDP protest vote hasn't held in the wake of the Liberal tide that's washing over Ontario. Wonder by Howard Hampton was bashing the Green Party last week?
It's because the Greens are pulling the 18-25 year old vote away from the NDP and it's going to cost them some seats. Anthony Gratl has run one of the better Green campaigns in Toronto and that will hurt the NDP numbers on election day. York South-Weston was always one of the safer Liberal seats in Toronto and it will return to the fold on election night as Laura Albanese beats Ferreira by 2000 votes.
07 10 07 Tim K
Clearly this riding is very competitive and will go down to the wire, but predicting a Liberal win at this point is highly premature. The Liberals appear to have peaked in the polls, with the election is still 4 days away. Also, with all the headlines this Saturday all but declaring a Liberal majority it might be difficult to convince the faithful that their support is really needed. Can you really be so sure the Liberal turnout operation will be strong enough here?
07 10 06 Marshall Howard Bader
Don't be so quick to call this one for the Grits. Outside of the Italian community (15% of the riding) there is not much support for Albanese. Ferreria hsa support across the riding and a considerable machine to pull in those votes. Expect an NDP victory here by about 1000 to 2000 votes.
07 10 06 J.B.
In a general election with a far more greater # of voters involved, I'm expecting this riding to revert back to the Liberals. The previous by-election was merely a protest vote at the time.
Dalton McGuinty is destined to receive another majority, and this riding will sway with that overall provincial trend.
07 10 05 DL
I keep hearing that the NDP is very confident here. Very few resources have been moved here from other ridings. Ferreira has set down roots quickly and now that the over provincial result is a foregone conclusion, people are feeling free to vote for the local candidate.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
I am going to go against the grain here and say that the NDP will lose this seat. I understand full well that in the past it had Bob Rae as its member so an NDP history is NOT without precedent but its really been a liberal seat for years. Also I look at the sheer weight of the Liberal vote in the last election versus the by-election and they don’t reconcile. Consequently I see the Liberals back around 45% in this election and therefore the seat back into Grit hands. John TOry will be shut out in Toronto the NDP will hold the 4 seats downtown but the sub's will be a sea of Liberal red. THe numbers just do NOT support the NDP holding this seat. Also as Howard Hampton has so apt put it... John TOry has given McGuinty a free ride and this area will want to ride into the McGunity Majority. Grits will likely have around 60 seats the PC's around 35 and NDP will be close to 15 come the 11th
07 10 02 downwithmmp
Have to give this to the liberals now....with a week to go in the campaign...i'd say the Liberals are gaining momentum, this means putting some distance between them and runners up. I live in Davenport and work in YSW...In Davenport, the ndp still have a shot, but like here in YSW...the longer the campaign goes..the longer the libs are seen as the vote to protect them against the bone chilling, scary thought of funding for private schools.
07 09 24 lrs
I am assuming the vote turn-out will be higher in the OCT 10 vote than the by-election and this should help the Liberals regain the seat- it would be best for the NDP to win to add to the opposition representation in the 416 area and if the NDP could hold this type of seat this time and with a new leader that might attract ethnic -new Canadian voters, it would offer hope that 416 may not be mostly be an one party state in future elections and become increasing completive.
perhaps locals could provide info on whether NDP sending extra workers to hold this seat and Parkdale- and will Liberal campaign come to seat before OCT 10 if seat close to changing hands
07 09 21 RyanOntario
ndp hold or gain here depending how you look at it for mpp Paul Ferreira.
Sure this seat was a major liberal win in 03 but its not a riding which always votes with the trend, in 97 it elected an independent MP and it never voted for pc's in 95, 99 .
but still could see the liberals put some effort into this seat and attempt to give Laura Albanese a shot here.
07 09 20 Politically Active
Interesting race. The Liberals want revenge for the surprising by-election defeat and the NDP want to show that this victory was not a fluke. The NDP candidate is impressive but the Liberal popularity is too much. Liberal win but not by much.
07 09 19 Marshall Howard Bader
Ferreira will win with an increased margin. He has never stopped campaigning and most people like him. Albanese's strongest support comes from the Northeastern part of the riding which is mostly Italian. Albanese is not personally popular partially because never saw her at mass until she lost the by-election. Look for the NDP to have a 2000 margin in this once NDP fortress.
07 09 16 Pete B.
No verdict on this one. The riding is 100 percent Liberal but Ferreira has done well (similar to DiNovo in the south). Unfortunately for NDP, unlike Parkdale, this riding has no yuppies to shore up their vote. However, there is still enough time for both Ferreira and Albanese.
07 09 16 MH
This should return to the Liberal fold by svereal thousand votes, though an NDP hold cannot be entirely dismissed. By-elections are rarely a reliable guide to what happens in a general election, however, and the Liberals won this easily in 2003. One thing IS certain: the PCs have absolutely no hope of taking this.
07 09 13 Initials
While the margin was slight in the by-election, that is to be expected. The Liberals had a hold on the riding for years, and then ran a ?star candidate?, known to the Italian population of YSW from the nightly TLN news.
But this election will most likely be different. Look for: 1) an immediate bump given that Mr. Ferreira is now the incumbent, 2) he has, within a short amount of time become a ?go-to? person on many local issues 3) has been extremely prominent, approachable and accessible in a way that few politicans are.
Look for a groundswell of populist support for Mr. Ferreira. While this will not be cakewalk for him, I would almost certainly expect him to keep the riding and increase the margin of victory by several thousand votes (as opposed to hundreds in the by-election).
07 09 06 MT
While I think that Paul Ferreira has certainly put in the effort and is very tenacious amidst losses at all levels of politics, I don't think he will be able to pull off another upset. But I believe that he should win because out of this field of candidates, he is the most sincere and should be given the chance to act. However, I think he will fall victim to the Liberal machine that still holds the riding in the north. He was able to squeak by in the byelection because of the low voter turnout but this election will be a test to how he has been able to relate and promote his values in the riding. I think that the so called star Albanese will prevail but it won't be because of her name or mcguinty provincial record. It will be because of the comfort level York South-Weston has with Liberal values.
07 09 06 binriso
Paul Ferreira barely won this byelection, only by like 300 votes or so but with Liberals probably more focused on defending ridings from the Tories, and a really close race provincially with a stronger NDP than last time I would have to say Ferreira wins by about 5% or so. PC's aren?t a factor here.
NDP 43
LIB 37
PC 14
07 09 05 Nick J Boragina
We?ve seen many times in history that a by-election means nothing when general election time comes around. The incumbent will always get a few points advantage, but beyond that there is no real advantage from winning a by-election. It?s the last election we must look at for changes, and when you look at the results, you see the Liberals won by a huge margin. I don?t see the NDP even coming close to winning here.
07 08 26 A.S.
What's most noteworthy about the YS-W byelection is how polarized the polling results were; within the former city of North York, in the heavily Italianate Cordiano-heartland Maple Leaf/Falstaff/Amesbury zone, Albanese won by a landslide, and Ferreira was pressed down w/the Tories t/w below-deposit range--virtually no different from a general election.
It was everything else which handed the seat to Ferreira; and even that upset result was nearly glass-ceilinged by the comparatively high turnout in Cordianoville. So, maybe the sweetest NDP byelection victory of all; all the more so for being oddly, serenely once-removed from the days of York South as a home base for successive provincial party leaders. Sweet; yet technically, it stands as the party's most 'vulnerable' seat, regardless. All depends on which way the missing voters in the Ferreiraphilic low-byelection-turnout polls swing--or, for that matter, whether (and by how much) those in Cordiano country will choose to swing with an incumbent, esp. one with an Iberic rather than Italianate surname. Keep in mind that Ferreira's main geographic base of support was the heartland of 'Nunziata populism' a decade ago; but also keep in mind that John Nunziata was, as an independent MP, a one-term wonder...
07 08 09 Skiptea
Hard working rookie MPP Paul Ferreira is now the incumbent and has the advantage. Will be close like the by-election but chalk this one up to the NDP. October election will most likely result in a minority - PC or Liberal with NDP holding the balance.
07 08 01 seamus
Paul Ferreira is a determined and hard working guy. The voters in York South-Weston, particularly in areas like Mount Dennis, are impressed with the ?moxy? of this young sparkplug. It will be a dog fight, but Albanese and the Liberals will have other worries and won't be able to direct the resources into YS-W that they would if it were not such a competitive race provincially. Ferreira and the NDP by a 1,000 votes.
07 06 08 King of Kensington
Paul Ferreira's success in the recent byelection was an important 'moral victory' for the NDP in Toronto. While Cheri DiNovo won the Parkdale-High Park byelection by a big margin, it essentially solidified the hold the NDP now has on trendy 'creative class' ridings in the old city of Toronto. York South-Weston is a solidly working class, multicultural riding where the Liberals have been dominant for a long time; the NDP is now competitive in such turf. Ferreira is a very affable and hard-working guy, and I think the people of the riding will want to give him a chance.
07 06 07 Dave
Star Candidate Laura Albanese is back, the turnout was very low over the last election, especially among her supporters as she was expected to be a shoo in. It was a close by-election race, but with a greater turnout, Albanese should be the winner.
07 06 06 Adam
I'm going to be the optimist here for the NDP (I almost always am!) I think this will stay NDP... by a hair, just like the by-election. I agree that By-elections are opportunities to express discontent with the governing party, and the NDP played that perfectly. I was surprised that Paul's margin was not greater but chalk that up to going against and bringing down a 'star' candidate from OMNI, Albanese I doubt will be back, that defeat might have been just embarrassing enough for her especially since this was considered a safe riding. That being said this is not a guarantee win for the NDP, whats been mentioned before is true, elections are completely different beasts and the Grits will be foaming at the mouth to win this riding back. Look for the NDP to throw resources from York West, York Centre, E-L, all the surrounding ridings (except PHP) in order to keep this Orange. York South-Weston has what it takes to be called a favourable NDP riding (Old Bastian of York South, ethnically diverse, low-middle income) and I still nothing has changed since the by-election. There is plenty of disenchantment with the Liberals over their mismanagement of the public purse and general 'out-of-touch' demeanour, no rewards this time. Paul hasn't been here long as the incumbent but he still is the incumbent and that will play to his advantage. The Grits can not count on another sweep of TO, that was a general 'get-ride-of-Harris' victory, Look to see both the NDP & Tories to pick up and hold.
07 05 09 Observer
A very solid result for the Liberals in the last general election and I would predict that they would easily hold it...except for the fact that they lost it already. Anything can happen in a by-election, but it generally happens for a reason. Is it possible that Liberal/NDP voters in this part of TO are more interchangeable than anyone thought? If McGuinty loses many ridings like this one, he has no hope for a majority. No prediction yet.
07 05 03 R.D.
As for the 2007 election, this was a close byelection with a low turnout. The general election may bring out enough soft Liberals to flip the seat back. Still, Paul F. is a young and dynamic MPP who campaigned well in the 2004 and 06 federal elections as well as in his 06 municipal run. Now that he's finally got in, voters may want to give him a bit more time to prove himself. TCTC.

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