Prediction Changed
12:32 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Windsor-St. Clair (93.7%)
Hon Dwight Duncan
Essex (6.3%)
Bruce Crozier

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 08 King of Kensington
A.S. - I have also heard the NDP isn't running much of a campaign here, which is surprising. Certainly this should be a top-tier target but I can only see this going NDP if they do much better than expected on election night. Maybe next time.
07 10 02 Jim
RyanOntario mentions that jobs is not one of the top 4 issues locally. I disagree with what I've heard in the debates I've attended. So I checked all the local candidates websites and I see that indeed Andrew McAvoy, Green candidate has this as the 2nd issue on this local platform. Seems like all the other Windsor-Tecumseh candidates are ignoring this issue. Check out the local issues that Andrew McAvoy has identified on his website and then check the other candidates websites as see for yourself. I think you'd be impressed that our local issues are high up on Andrew's list. My vote goes to Green as I think he's the best candidate to be our MPP and to fight for our community.
07 10 01 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
Thanks for hitting the nail on the head Nick. We agree with you 100% on your federal/provincial NDP assessment. Another little factor that we've come to realise...something of an epiphany after living here for so long...Windsorites do not like change at all. Every new project is met with some sort of foot dragging by council or opposition from the public. Basically anything to stop change, even if the chage is desperatly needed and would help this city. (Believe us it can be frustrating). Now apply that to politics. Looks at all the politicians who are entrenched in Windsor (or have been entrenched). Herb Grey, Brian Masse, Sandra Pupatello, Dwight Duncan, Joe Comartin, Ron Jones (heck all of city council pretty much). For better or for worse they pretty much can't be elected out.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
I’d be curious to see how the recent wave of illegal immigration will affect this riding. Mexicans have been pouring into Canada via Windsor. While I don’t think it will have much of an impact – the Liberals should still win, it will be interesting to see.
The NDP has always had trouble converting federal wins into provincial votes. While the Green prediction puzzles me, the NDP one does not on those grounds. It is, however, worthy to note that the provincial NDP is not the federal NDP, and the Liberals are very strong here provincially.
07 09 27 seasaw
Dwight Duncan'll be history on election day.Too bad, because he's been one of the hardest working members of the McGuinty cabinet. Unfortunately, energy has been a tough portfolio and area for the government and poor old Duncan'll be made an scapegoat. The Tories have not won in Windsor in some fifty years, so the logical choice would be to go NDP.
07 09 27 RyanOntario
a green prediction how unusual, anyways my thoughts on the windsor tecumseth race. what i find odd about this riding is its an area which has lost alot of manufacturing jobs yet the issue of the economy hasn't made it to the top 4 issues of this election campaign. the fact so little has been said about that has likely helped the incumbent here.
also Dwight Duncans two main candidates Helmi Charif and Kristine Robinson were nominated rate before the election. But this hasn't discouraged Hampton from visiting this area. my prediction is that this riding will be closer than the last election.
07 09 27 S.S. Macdonnell
I have heard the green party, is targeting Mr. Duncan. He is now the poster boy for the failed promise to shut the coal fired electrical plants.
07 09 16 A.S.
Now in the present situation, I can understand the provincial NDP throwing Windsor West; but, Windsor-Tecumseh?!? In not-so-bygone years, this would have been (under Dave Cooke) one of the party's safest seats, or top targets--why in the name of Buzz Hargrove would *it* have fallen out of the top 5 or even 10 target range?!? Is Dwight Duncan *that* unassailable? Or is a 1-2 federal punch good enough for the Dippers? Like, now that they rule at Ottawa, they feel they can let the Queen's Park line slack a little? As a bow to the past, I still reserve a prediction--but oh well, the Dwight Duncan at Queen's Park/Joe Comartin at Ottawa *does* make for a nice Fred'n'Barney counterpoint...
07 09 15 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) Dwight lose? No one is going to predict that who isn't a complete partisan trying to make themselves feel better for fighting a losing cause.
07 09 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Hasn't anyone learned by now that Windsorites tend to keep their long-term MPs/MPPs. They have two ministers in the current government, which very may be the next government. The NDP is not going to make up 23% over the Liberals, neither is the PC going to make up 41% (though we're sure there are some CPC supporters from the 2006 federal election who will argue otherwise).
07 05 03 C B
Being from Windsor, Duncan's potentially in a lot of trouble here. The two cabinet ministers from Windsor are not looked very highly upon right now. Most people are complaining how our area is STILL ignored, particularly in the most recent budget, despite having two cabinet ministers. I think it would take a lot for Sandra to fall. I would not be the least bit shocked if he lost his seat. If he does it will more than likely be to the NDP.
07 03 27 B. Peterson
Dwight Duncan has shown Windsor he's a fighter and have delivered real money to our area. The real coup is the creation of the medical school here in windsor.

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