Prediction Changed
8:20 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Wellington—Halton Hills
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Halton (47.6%)
Ted Chudleigh
Waterloo-Wellington (24.9%)
Ted Arnott
Guelph-Wellington (16.4%)
Liz Sandals
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (11%)
John Tory

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 24 A local
I think the Liberals have a better chance this time. With the shift to more urban areas (i.e Georgetown and Acton, which are both new) there might be a more Liberal-minded vote. Also, many new people that have worked their way into the riding are from cities and are Liberal (some of them at least). Georgetown and Acton no longer have Ted Chudleigh, and the Liberal candidate is from Georgetown. Locals MIGHT prefer one of them instead of someone from another part of the riding (that's why Fergus supports (mostly) Ted Arnott. The Liberal is from an agricultural background and is a retired teacher of 30 years. I think the Liberals have a better chance this time, compared to the years of Rae and Harris, McGuinty just might be the lesser of three evils here.
07 09 23 Nick J Boragina
Even with Family Coalition Party Leader, Giuseppe Gori running here, I don’t see it as having a real impact on votes. The Tories won by 20 points last time in this riding. It would take an overwhelming Liberal landslide, greater then the one in 2003 before this riding falls to the Liberals. The FCP may have managed 83 candidates (more then half of all ‘other’ candidates in this election) but their chances are topping 2%-3% on e-day remain low.
07 09 15 Mount Forester
Ted Arnott is one of those rare MPPs whose appeal comes from his approachability and his good constituency work, not his Party Label. It would be a shock and surprise if he was not returned to office on October 10.
07 09 14 nesooite
High income riding and strong incumbent equals Tory win in Wellington-Halton Hills.
07 08 25 A.S.
On top of all that, Arnott's old-school moderate PCism (practically 'Cameroon', in British terms) is the sort that earns support and/or respect from all quarters. He's a good match for Mike Chong federally, in fact. And rather naturally, he's perfect for John Tory. If Ted Arnott loses, it'll be in the event that the PCs lose official party status.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
The only riding outside of Eastern Ontario where the Tories got over 50% federally and is also a safe one provincially, so easy Tory hold.
07 05 02 Angry Ontarian
MPP Ted Arnott is running in this deep blue riding where the PC's garnered 50%+ of the vote in 2003. That's enough to ensure a strong Conservative win in the new riding of Wellington-Halton Hills.

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