Prediction Changed
8:17 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Timiskaming-Cochrane (100%)
Hon David Ramsay

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 Nortern voter
Hampton came twice in the last week. There are many places that Hampton would have spent one more day in if the internal NDP polls didn’t point to something very interesting happening. My prediction: NDP wins almost every poll north of the tri-towns (Kirkland Lake, Cochrane, Iriquois Falls, Earlton, Englehart, the liberals win Sturgeon Falls (but by less than expected) and the Tri-towns are a close liberal win. Once totalled, the NDP wins a nail-biter (in the 200 vote range). David Ramsay becomes the evening’s only cabinet casualty.
07 10 09 N~Jam101
This will be closer than last time, no doubt about it. The only alternative to Ramsay is the NDP candidate and it really doesn't matter who he is. Many forestry workers are upset. I don't think much anger will come from those in mining and I'm not sure about those in agriculture in Temiskaming. Being a cabinet minister is what will both hurt and help Ramsay's support. He will win as many realize that the other parties' policies would not be much if any improvement and in many cases would be worse. I know some of you out there think that Northern Ontario always likes to re-elect but really we are only a 2-party region (except Nipissing) these days and just look at Sault Ste. Marie and see that last time they defeated and incumbent.
07 10 05 Observer
Northern Ontario doesn't vote down sitting MPPs. Particulaily if they have profile in the Government. I think that this may a riding where the NDP can pick up some votes and close the gap some, but they won't be electing a member here.
07 09 29 Northernguy
Although I stand behind my prediction, I am going to make a suggestion. I think that is safe to assume that all major parties are doing polling in ridings that they are on the radar in. As well, I think that is safe to suggest that those numbers are the driver for where leaders go (especially in the last week or two of the campaign). If those ideas are accepted, it is safe to say that if we see Hampton in the riding during this last full week, perhaps the inference should be that there is something quite signifigant that the NDP is seeing in its polls. As well, if we see Dalton in the riding, then it should be accepted that the Libs are seeing some very alarming developments. From the grass roots I feel like i am seeing a sea change, but the proof of whether that is really the case will be in how the partys strategize and use their big guns in the last week.
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
Perhaps an odd reason, but a reason. This riding owes it’s existence to Dalton McGunity. Ontario was supposed to follow the federal boundaries in redistribution, but McGunity’s government decided to make an exception for northern Ontario, thereby saving this riding from being partitioned amongst it’s neighbors.
Okay, maybe that’s somewhat of a silly reason, but when your coming off a 40 point gap, I don’t think it really matters.
07 09 24 Northernguy
I traveled to the northern end of the riding on Saturday, and In Cochrane and Iroquois Falls, pretty much the only party with actual lawn signs are the NDP. The centre of the riding, (the tri-towns) is supposed to be Ramsay central, but it seems everyone you talk to is voting NDP. Even some tories seem resigned to the fact that their candidate is not going to win, and are strategically looking at the New Democrat as a way to a) beat Ramsay, and b) possibly knock one seat off the Liberal quest for a majority. As well in the tri-towns, NDP lawn signs seem to be out pacing the Libs 3-1. If the north third goes heavy NDP (which is my prediction, and the South third goes Lib. (which also seems likely), and the middle is a somewhat unexpected horse race, Ontario could have the first defeated cabinet minister of the evening on election night.
07 09 17
Anyone who posts on this page predicting that the Ramsay is safe and that the NDP is not challenging obviously does not live in the riding. Ramsay rode through the previous few elections based on his opinion switch from in favour to against Adams Mine. This time, with no Adams Mine, and a horrible Liberal record for the north, and the mills shutting down left, right, and centre, Ramsay's in big trouble, facing a galvanized NDP with a decent profile candidate like Vanthof.
07 09 15 Ryan N
I'm expecting this to remain Liberal.
Ramsay may have political baggage, but like Sudbury, I can't see northern Ontario ousting any previous incumbent cabinet ministers at this time. Ramsay's support will definitely drop, but not enough for anybody to overtake him.
Liberals should be more worried about retaining Nipissing and Sault Ste. Marie.
07 09 12 nesooite
Too close to call. David Ramsey has been member over 20 years. Originally as an NDP and then joined the Liberals in the Peterson era. I have always been puzzled how he has not been vulnerable in the past. This plus the historic NDP tradition (ie: voted CCF in the 50's in the mining hey days) makes the Liberals somewhat vulnerable. It will take some effort and luck on the NDP, as Ramsey must do something right to get himself re-elected all these years. Another key riding that the Liberals have to keep if they want to be re-elected.
07 09 10 P Belisle
There is a lot of resentment towards Ramsay in the riding. Essentially he's already lost the northenr half thanks to forestry industry tanking and the issues with the dams in Iroquois Falls. The southern half is pretty conservative, while the tri-towns have Liberal support that will bleed to Charlie Angus-backed Vanthof. Vanthof was heavily involved with Adams Mine, and when you add in all the factors, the NDP may jump from third to first.
07 09 06 observer 2
i should say that i am not the first observer who posted Liberal. so i have changed my ID. as each day progresses in this campaign, the New Democrats continue to ramp up. Jack Layton, the federal leader, was in iroquois falls to help promote john vanthof. Peter Stoffer is coming tuesday to kirkland lake. the NDP is going to go hard after the riding after internal polls are rumoured to show a New Democrat opportunity for victory. as i have said before, the liberals have their backs against a firing squad wall after many residents lost their jobs. David Ramsay will have harsh welcomes from angry moose hunters, bear hunters and forestry workers.
07 09 05 observer
his riding is up for grabs indeed. David Ramsay must defend his government's policies around forestry and tell laid off employees that the liberals are good for forestry. ramsay even said the north was better off these days. he has to also answer to a bear problem, a bad mining tax grab on diamonds, and a overall neglect for the upper north. the NDP will go hard after this seat since it was a new democrat stronghold years back. in fact david ramsay won in 1985 as a new democrat. Ramsay may become a fall guy for dalton mcguinty
07 08 31 Northernguy
Many good points A.S. You are right in not underestimating the tories as having some support at least in the region. I guess that my pessimistic view of their support comes from the idea that the NDP candidate is from the Englehart area. This is often one of the tory areas of support. Its been my experience that the tories in that part of the riding are ok with supporting a populist New Democrat, especially if it means knocking off a liberal. I do not discount for a minute that David Ramsay will be tough to beat. I am reminded of something attributed to Tony Martin. ? A campaign is alot like sailing, you get out in the water, and if you put your sail up and do everything perfectly, you still need the wind to be there and take you. Sometimes it does, and sometime it doesnt.? If the NDP in this riding does everything perfectly, (and it does seem that they are fairly organized), a perfect storm of bear anger, and provincial trends may just take them. I guess there is the chance as well, that they may just be sitting there in the water. Because I love a good underdog (and Angus was a very simmilar type of underdog his first time out), I am sticking with my prediction.
07 08 23 A.S.
Don't overestimate the Tories (despite spurious #1-in-the-North polls); yet don't underestimate them either. If they're out of deposit range, it'd be in Timmins-James Bay, not here; Timiskaming has long had a strong populist Tory undercurrent (a lot of which once parked w/Confederation of Regions). Though yes, Tory populism might be relegated to third in the Charlie Angus era--but is Angus populism a match for Ramsay populism? Somehow, David Ramsay's the kind of cabinet seatholder who earns a certain trial-by-fire grassroots respect and forgiveness--perhaps. It'd be weirdly borderline-plausible if Ramsay survives even the Thunder Bay Grits and Bartolucci in Sudbury--and he must be thanking his lucky stars that the decision to keep old Northern boundaries provincially saved him from a horserace with Gilles Bisson...
07 08 21 Northernguy
This will be a tight contest between the Liberals and the NDP. The tories will be lucky to get their deposit back. The south of the riding will be solid liberal, the north (Charlie Angus country) will be painted Orange and green. The real fight will be in the centre (the tri-towns). Both the New Democrat and the Liberal are from there (along with the Conservative (but thats a non-issue) and the defining factor will be how far the Liberals collapse between now and Oct. According to recent polls, the ground is shaky at very least for sure. a huge liability for Ramsey is the refusal of his ministry to reinstate the spring bear hunt. The overwhelming perception up here is that its cancellation is a cause of the massive bear problem that currently exists. Bottom line in my opinion is that a NDP that is at historic levels (18-20 percent) combined with an emphasis put on this riding by the NDP (A couple Hampton visits, some Ad. buys etc) could spell defeat for a Liberal cabinet minister. I suppose that an issue would also be how relatively weak the Conservatives perform in the riding will have a bearing. If the conservatives manage a respectable showing (which by my post I am sure you can tell that I am skeptical about) they will take some votes from the Liberals and allow the NDP to win with a smaller number than they would otherwise would need if the tories tank.
07 07 13 Rural Analyst
David Ramsay to hold easily.
This is NOT going to the PC's. Having a Red Tory from Bay Street is a recipe for disaster here - they will be lucky to hold their 2003 support here I think and may finish 3rd. If anyone benefits from any northern Ontario inattention, it will be the NDP or perhaps some smaller parties. The NDP may make some gains depending on how much attention Howard Hampton puts up north. That leaves the Minister of Natural Resources safe and secure.
07 07 08 D. Loach
In this election, Mr. Ramsay will have to defend the record of his government, which is a difficult task at the best of times. He will not have a popular issue like Adams Mine to champion this time. Instead, he will need to deal with the perception in the North that his government has in large part been responsible for the economic devastation resulting from the crisis in the forestry / paper industry. While the Southern Ontario auto industry is seen to repeatedly be given large amounts of cash to save high-paying jobs, the same cannot be said for the high-paying forestry jobs. Mr. Ramsay will also have to deal with the problem that the Liberals are seen by many as promise breakers, particularly for the infamous ?Health Premium?. Finally, Northerners are generally dissatisfied with the lack of attention given to problems that have a considerable impact on them..... especially high prices for gas and hydro.
07 05 10 free_thinker
Ramsey is a tough opponent, his previous electoral success has proven that. However, this time he will have a record to defend which could leave him vulnerable. I would argue that the results from 1999 are the ones people should analyze to draw predictions for this election. If you do that and then factor in the fact that Ramsey will now have to defend a record, the NDP will take some support from the Liberals and the Tories are slightly more popular you could conclude that this could be a very close race. Of the Liberal seats in Northern Ontario this is one that could change hands. Right now, TCTC.
07 05 09 Observer
I think there will be a reduced majority here this time as both the NDP and the Conservatives are increasing their presence in Northern Ontario. Neither will get within striking distance here.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
Has been a safe Liberal riding for some time and should stay that way.

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