Prediction Changed
12:32 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Thunder Bay—Superior North
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Thunder Bay-Superior North (100%)
Michael Gravelle

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 N~Jam101
This is an obvious Gravelle win. The NDP will gain many votes but it still won't be all that close.
07 10 08 Joe Sarcastic
Gravelle will take this seat easily. The PC candidate is young and unknown, the NDP candidate is from outside Thunder Bay (the major population base) which limits his personal profile, while Gravelle won with one of the biggest margins of victory in the province last election. No contest.
07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
Both Thunder-Bay ridings, including this one of Superior North, will be going Liberal. I think the NDP may have had some history here at points in the past, and I think that the PC Party actually polls well in parts of the city, but the reality now is the Liberals have the clear edge here. I just cant see anyone else winning.
07 10 05 Derek James
Gravelle is more popular than Mauro, having been in office longer. He came off as somewhat arrogant during the debates, interrupting other debaters and so on, but it was more civil compared to the TB-Atikokan debate. The NDP candidate is fairly unknown in the city, but lawn signs indicate he is supported by a very comfortable margin. The PC candidate is young, and young people don't do too well in elections here, but he has potential in future elections. The green party candidate came off as rather timid during the election, and doesn't appear to have as much support as her TB-Atikokan counterpart according to lawn signs. I predict the NDP will take this riding, but the Liberals will be in a close second.
07 09 28 RyanOntario
well predicting a liberal who got 70% of the vote losing his seat wouldn't exactly make sense. well you have to remember the last campaign all he had to do was blame Mike Harris for everything. but i have some observations about this riding. the economy here has been thru a few tough years most of the small towns in this riding along highways 11/17 have seen layoffs or mill closures. including red rock , longlac, terrace bay , nipigon and even city of thunder bay.
the question is how does an incumbent mpp solve this problem or defend it? i'm not sure but you have to feel sorry for the local residents who have been thru ecomonic hard times.
as for the candidates here the ndp Jim Foulds thing is just weird i just read he is a relative of former mpp Jim Foulds. and Scott Hobbs is young and this is his first attempt at running for office in a very liberal northern riding. Michael Gravelle himself seems very well known in this riding as he's been mpp since 95.
well this all makes for an interesting race if nothing else.
07 09 12 nesooite
Popular local MPP, historically strong Liberal support, NDP split between environmentalists and union members (not enough of either) and non existent PC votes make this an easy Liberal win.
07 09 11 A.S.
MC: thanks for clarifying on Jim Foulds. Incidentally, it was Wikipedia that indicated it was the same Jim Foulds. (Which says a lot about Wikipedia. Or, perhaps, whomever's contributing to it.)
07 09 10 MC
A.S.- RE: Jim Foulds, you are incorrect.
The Jim Foulds running in this election is actually James Foulds running under Jim Foulds because of the name recognition. James Foulds is a union representative from the mill in Red Rock and recently ran and won election during the 2006 municipal election as a council member in Nipigon.
This seat will definitely stay Liberal. Despite mill shutdowns, etc., Thunder Bay's economy is beginning to diversify. New jobs are being created elsewhere (contrary to what the NDP will have you believe). Plus, and more importantly, Michael Gravelle is an extremely hardworking local MPP.
The NDP seem to be pulling out all the stops here, but I think it will backfire. Not only are they trying to capitalize on the name Jim Foulds, but the party that claims to be the defenders of the environment proved today that they are not. Around noon today, the NDP had about five or six cars driving around shopping mall plazas in a line honking their horns with Jim Foulds signs on the side of their cars. There was only one person per car. If the NDP were truly concerned about the environment, rather than pure political posturing, why would they a)use cars and not get out and walk around to meet people, and b)use so many cars (you do not need 5-6 cars to get attention)!.
07 09 01 A.S.
Not just ?one of the? strongest wins, it was *the* strongest Liberal win in all of Ontario in 2003. But...Yi! Yi! Yi! The NDP candidate is...Jim Foulds?!? Former MPP and leadership contender? Yes, *that* Jim Foulds, believe it or not. So, the provincial party has its own version of Ed Broadbent, Ed Schreyer, Ian Deans: an old stalwart making a late-life comeback bid out of nowhere. Though it's a pretty bold bid, considering that even a 25-point swing wouldn't defeat Mike Gravelle--thus, here as in TBA next door, I'm still offering TBSN a borderline, vulnerable Liberal prediction. But, accounting for the Lyn McLeod effect that artificially juiced up Lakehead Liberal results into 2003, I feel that it isn't so borderline to predict that this seat'll see the province's biggest swing away from the Liberals, regardless.
07 05 13 J.B.
Thunder Bay-Superior North will remain a solid red Liberal provincial riding. Michael Gravelle is well-known and respected in this area, and he'll be re-elected by another very comfortable margin. This is one of the few areas in the province where the slight drop in Liberal support will have absolutely no impact. The NDP and PCs are nowhere on the radar.
07 05 09 Observer
I think there will be a reduced majority here this time as both the NDP and the Conservatives are increasing their presence in Northern Ontario. Neither will get within striking distance here.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
One of the strongest Liberal wins in 2003, so they should easily hold this. It might go NDP federally, but not provincially.
07 05 02 Ryan N
Oops! My bad, Gravelle actually won with 72% in 2003.
07 04 02 Ryan N
Quite possibly one of the SAFEST Liberal seats in Ontario. Gravelle received one of the highest percentages of Liberal support in the province during the '03 election with 60.9%
In any election in northern Ontario, people primarily base their vote on the individual, and NOT their political party!

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