Prediction Changed
1:03 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Scarborough—Rouge River
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Scarborough-Rouge River (100%)
Bas Balkissoon

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 09 22 MH
This seat is about as safely Liberal as they come. Bas Balkissoon has served this area well, and neither the PC's nor the NDP are likely to pose a problem for him. How the Greens will do is anyone's guess, but they will not affect the outcome.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
Minority or Majority, a win is a win, and this riding has been historically won by the Liberals time and time again. This is one of the most small l liberal ridings in the province, the kind of riding you’d expect to vote for a party not because of it’s name or standing, but because it has real and true small l liberal ideas. While the Dalton McGunity Liberals are not as small l liberal as they could be, the NDP and PC’s are much further off from that. Balkissoon will won again here.
07 09 12
Incumbent MPP Bas Balkissoon should win this riding in a landslide. He has served much of the area as a City Councillor for the past 17 years and has built a strong reputation as a straight shooter...he was the guy that took on Mayor Lastman and uncovered the MFP computer leasing scandal. As an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago with south asian heritage, Balkissoon has strong support from the riding's large caribbean and south asian community. The Conservatives are running an unknown candidate from Mississauga and perennial NDP candidate Sheila White (Who has been soundly beaten at the federal and provincial levels in this riding)shouldn't muster much opposition.
07 09 06 A.S.
Re Alvin Curling's majorities, I can't call 3 out of 5 'almost every election' (it was 'only' a plurality in the Rae/Harris landslide years of 1990 and 1995). As for Balkissoon, his provincial profile hasn't yet lived up to his whistle-blowing on municipal corruption, but he's still as safe as he could be, continuing that odd Scarborough Liberal disjunction btw/an so-called execrable federal caucus and so-called exemplary provincial caucus...
07 05 09 Observer
I project an all Red Scarborough. This is the strongest Liberal seat in Scarborough and they held it easily at byelection time, when other strong ridings like Parkdale and York South Weston flipped. Expect the local opposition to put up a fight somewhere else, probably Scarborough SouthWest.
07 04 29 Andrew Cox
Liberal Hold.
1) This is one of the safest Liberal seats in the province, exceeded only by York West and York Centre. Since it was created in 1987, Liberal Alvin Curling received a majority - not a plurality, a majority - of the vote in almost every election.
2) Bas Balkissoon ran in a by-election here in 2005 and received 58% of the vote.
3) Neither opposition party will offer more than token resources and sacrificial lamb candidates.

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