Prediction Changed
10:44 PM 28/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Scarborough East (62%)
Hon Mary Anne V. Chambers
Scarborough Centre (23.1%)
Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest (15%)
Lorenzo Berardinetti

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Trotsky Lev
This seems like quite a close race.
As far as I am concerned a Liberal victory can only occur despite the handpicked Margaret Best. Furthermore she hasn't even done a good job canvassing.
The Tories have done a pretty good job of getting their signs and leaflets out and canvassing underway.
The last candidate Mr.Shan seems like the wild card in this election. He has quite the credentials for a twenty eight year old. His background as a Tamil will sway quite a large number of traditionally liberal Tamil votes. Like Grant he's got the signs, leaflets and canvassing all going.
This riding doesn't necessarily need to follow the provincial trend of a sizeable liberal victory since it has elected different parties throughout the past decade or so. In the end, most likely it'll be a close race won by under a thousand votes. Whoever wins will be the victor in a tight and hotly contested riding.
07 10 01 Nobby
What I think is odd is that RyanOntario omitted to mention that neither Neethan Shan nor Gary Grant live in the riding either, but then again Gary Grant is pretty much saying the same thing to any voter he meets. Best he can do I suppose, given he's visibly uncomfortable with the faith based schools issue. NDP haven't held their deposit here in quite some time. Neethan will syphon off a bit of the Tamil vote, but this'll still be a comfortable victory for Margarett Best over Grant.
07 09 29 lrs
I agree with the prediction to the Liberals holding the seat. While the PC candidate may be a good candidate -with polls trending to a growing Liberal majority close - it would be difficult to believe the Tories could go against the provincial trend to could win this seat .The only question may be is whether the Liberal vote will be less than 50% in this seat.
07 09 27 RyanOntario
Too close to call due to the retirement of liberal mpp Mary Anne Chambers . this has made this riding an open race and all 3 parties have targeted it, what i find odd is that the liberal candidate Margarett Best is from Pickering not actually from riding. think that will hurt her chances a bit. but this is Scarborough and Gary Grant is pushing the crime issue here as well. Another factor is ndp candidate Neethan Shan and that makes this a close race.
07 09 27 Nick J Boragina
I usually don’t make two comments on one riding where nothing has changed, but I feel on this one I must. First of all I’m puzzled as to which party it is that is fighting with the Liberals and is strong enough to keep this TCTC. Is it Libertarian Party Leader, Sam Applebaum? I doubt it, it’s probably the Tory. Even that is puzzling to me. 52% to 30% in the last election, meaning the spread was more then 20 points. Remember too that the post debate polls have not shown the expected PC upswing, the Liberals are on track to win 50-60 seats, and with those numbers, ridings like this are safe. Even with a bad candidate for the Liberals, and a good one for the Tories, I doubt it’s enough to make up such a large gap. Lastly, I will provide some information. This riding is made up of mostly of wards 38 and 43 from the city. In the 2003 mayoral election John Tory won a total of 43% in those wards, compared to David Miller at 38% and Barbara Hall at 12%. While that plurality might lead to predictions of a Tory win here, I’d like to point out that however badly the PC Party might want it, this is not the John Tory party, it’s the PC Party.
07 09 26 binriso
I have to say although it will be close I think the Liberals will retain this riding. Lots of immigrant families, but recently a lot more from Asia, Europe and Africa. Now obviously these people vote Liberal/NDP way more than PC. Also, the addition of lots of Scarborough Center and parts of Southwest has made this riding stronger for the Liberals, their margin wouldve went up 5 points last time(52.6-30 compared to 51.5-33.9 in 2003) if these boundaries were used. They should hold despite the loss of incumbent, but it will be considerably closer probably by around 5% 2500 votes or so.
07 09 25 William R.
When the writ was dropped, Gary Grant's signs were widely visable and had a large presence around the riding. It appeared as though Margarett ?2 T's? Best was playing catch up.
As well, the Toronto Sun reported on Sunday that Mr Grant's office was broken into in the middle of the night and his personal laptop was stolen. The article doesn't point fingers, but it is very evident that there is desperation and fear are out there.
07 09 16 Southern Boy
It certainly has the appearance of a race. With the Liberal workers coming from Pickering/Ajax - as does the Liberal Candidate - and a little help from her friends at CUPW and the Canadian Federation of Labour (from Coburg) she has managed to create the image of local support. The NDP have plastered anything that stands still and they too have created an image. However image is far from reality and Gary Grant has a depth of support that is visible in every corner of the riding. Yes it is a race, but it will be won with style not image.
07 09 16 MH
The Liberal vote may go down a bit, but this should be a fairly easy hold for them. Past predictions of a Conservative victory in S-G have usually proved to be the product of wishful thinking. Remember how her supporters said Pauline Browes would win this for the federal Conservatives last year? She was buried. As for the NDP, they're barely on the radar here. A major shift to the Tories in Metro may put this in the PC camp, but absent such a shift S-G will continue to be Liberal.
07 09 14 Pete D.
This is not a traditional riding of one particular party. And, since there is no incumbent, this is an open race. The people have lost faith in Liberal in general, and Scarborough Guildwood Liberals don't seem organized.
It seems like the race is only between PC and NDP in this riding. This is the first provincial election in this new riding, and the PCs and Liberals have lost over 4,500 of its voters from Scarborough East, while the NDP has only lost 1000 voters.
The majority in this riding would generally favour NDP platform, but has vote Liberal (mainly) or conservative strategically. And with stronger than usual candidate Neethan Shan, the NDP has good chance to win this riding. If NDP can prove to the voters that they can win, which they do in this riding, and looking at the signs in the area it seems like its a clear win for NDP.
07 09 03 Nick J Boragina
I lived in this riding when I first moved to the City. I can tell you even in the time since I've moved out, the riding has only more immigrant families, and they traditionally do not vote PC. Scarborough itself is reaching the point where visible minorities will become the actual majority, I think that will happen in 5-10 years according to statistics.
07 08 11 A.S.
Given how Scarborough's gone lately (demographically and politically), why should a Tory pickup be inevitable in Chambers' absence? Federally, they didn't do significantly better against the Grits here than in neighbouring seats (even w/Pauline Browes running last time). And Chambers herself had a surprisingly solid win over the hitherto invincible Steve Gilchrist last time--one that'd be even solider under present boundaries. IOW, it may not be the 'traditional swing riding' it used to be. Now, if the seat consisted entirely of a Bluffs-clinging strip south of Kingston Rd and the GO line, *then* I can understand hopes for a swing--and even there, it might be borderline, hinging upon PC minority hopes. Within current boundaries, it hinges upon PC majority hopes, or an unforeseen NDP recovery to Stephen Lewis levels at the presumed expense of the Liberals...
07 08 10 Southern Boy
Following redistribution, over 45% of the riding had no incumbent prior to the resignation of Mary Anne Chambers. Her claim to have ?picked her successor? is not sitting well and then to have picked a candidate from Ajax, not Scarborough, compounds the problem. Gary Grant is probably one of the strongest candidates to ever put their name forward and he is working hard and has been for a month. A huge volunteer base and the strength of John Tory in the riding and Gary will win.
07 08 09 Skiptea
PC's have quite a few votes to overcome to capture this seat but with the incumbent gone, moderate leader and a good campaign who knows?
07 08 02
With Mary Ann Chambers now gone, this riding will return to Blue
07 08 01 seamus
Liberals might have lost this seat had Mary Anne Chambers ran - but with this as an open seat, Tories gain a foothold in Scarborough. Gary Grant, former senior cop, is running for the Tories. Should have alot of appeal in this traditional swing riding.

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