Prediction Changed
1:03 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

St. Catharines
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

St. Catharines (92.6%)
Hon James J. Bradley
Niagara Centre (7.4%)
Peter Kormos

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Bradley is the candidate here who wins it for the Liberals. Ridings on the Niagara peninsula have trended less towards voting for X or Y party and have trended more towards voting for locally popular candidates, which certainly makes this area stand out in that regard. I don’t think that this riding is a ‘race’ at all. Bradley has been in for a long time and has survived two sweeping tides, and then been part of one with other Liberals. So long as he keeps running he’ll keep winning. Liberal Lock.
07 09 17 The Jackal
This is not so much a Liberal seat as it's Jim Bradley's seat. If he were to step aside this riding would likely be in play but since that is not the case it will be an easy win for him.
07 09 15 Ryan Romero
Everyone in St. Catharines knows that this is a lock for Jim Bradley except for the Bradley campaign. As they have hit the campaign trail hard right out of the gate. Bradley does not take this riding for granted, which is why he works so hard and why he will win yet again with at least 45% of the vote
07 09 13 Thai
No doubt this will be a race that will define the political turnover of St. Catharines. St. Catharines has federally voted a Conservative in. St. Catharines will vote, and that outcome will be close, whether it be Jim Bradley or Bruce Timms.
07 09 12 KJ
I was actually surprised to see Bruce Timms decide to expend some political capital in a race that can't be won. Unless of course he's hoping for Tory to win provincially and have Bradley, not thrilled at the prospect of returning to the opposition hinterland, hang it up a year or so into the term. Then he would at least have more name recognition in the byelection. That will be the first election to watch in St. Catharines in some time, at least since Bradley got that scare in 1990 from that NDP guy parachuted into the riding. Even if everything that could go wrong for the Liberals -- a McGuinty implosion and total meltdown in the debate -- Bradley wins this one in his sleep.
07 08 14 A.S.
*Anything* Homolka-wise has wet-noodled at the ballot box in St. Kitts; otherwise, Jim Bradley wouldn't have lasted this long, and Walt Lastewka wouldn't have kept his federal seat until 2006. The seat will only truly be in play once Bradley retires--and, hey, in a seat where the federal NDP crested 20% in '06 even with Hargrovian pressure to vote Liberal, don't be surprised if it's a 3-way...
07 08 14 Ted Edmunds
This riding should be one of, if not the first, called in the province for the Liberals. Jim Bradley survived the NDP wave in '90 and got over 45% in 1995. Bradley's vote total and margin of victory has increased in each of the last 4 elections, despite being outspent by the Tories in each of the last 3 elections.
Bradley has also never made the mistake that other long time politicians make. Bradley has never taken the votes for granted, after 30 years as MPP he is still visible throughout the riding, very active in the community, and a tireless advocate for St. Catharines at Queens Park. The new hospital being built in the city is proof enough of that.
Combine that with a Tory candidate who has little to no name recognition in the city, and who also ran against Jim Bradley before, only mustering 13% of support. And this will be an easy win for Jim Bradley.
07 08 11 RyanOntario
This riding is tough to figure out, its been a odd few years in St Catherines . anyone remember the Karla Homolka incident of two years ago ? when the ontario liberals were all involved and made a big deal of her release .
Not sure if that will be a factor in this election. also this riding has seen some job loses and tourism from the US is way down . Calendonia is nearby and had been in the news that might hurt the liberals here.
but the riding is more urban and brock university votes might help out the liberals .
Also Jim Bradley the liberal mpp is vey well known compared to Bruce Timms the pc candidate . being the incumbent can be a big advantage sometimes . guess well see how this all plays out come election day.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is not a Liberal riding, but a Jim Bradley riding. While federally this is a swing seat, Walt Lastewka was no Jim Bradley (although still a good MP) so until Jim Bradley retires he will continue to win by large margins.
07 04 05 Martin
As long as Jim Bradley wants this riding - it will stay Liberal. Jim will survive no matter what happens provincially. He is one of those politicians that people vote for regardless of the party or government.
Bradley in a walk
07 03 21 Leo Lehman
There is no way that Jim Bradley is going to lose in St. Catharines. He has been the MPP for almost 30 years, winning in every election since 1977. Jim Bradley is consistently the hardest working MPP in Ontario and the people of St. Catharines know that and will send him back to Queens Park.

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