Prediction Changed
10:20 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Prince Edward—Hastings
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Prince Edward-Hastings (72.5%)
Ernie Parsons
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (27.5%)
Hon Leona Dombrowsky

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Looking on a map, this riding juts out like a red knife into a blue field of PC ridings. The reason for that is there is a large rural component in the middle and north of this riding where, to put it bluntly, nobody really lives. Most of the population of this riding is concentrated in the south, in areas where you are far more likely to see Liberals winning. Dombrowsky is popular here, even if some don’t like her. She should be able to come back into office, especially with a 20+ point gap covering her behind.
07 10 06 binriso
Cant see the Liberals losing this one, a 24 point gap from last time and only a minor difference of a couple percent between the polls from 2003.
07 10 06 Smok Wawelski
I agree with you that had Ernie stayed on it would have been no contest, and this comes from someone who has never voted for a Liberal at any level, federal or provincial.
Ernie is just too likeable. I still would not have voted for him nothing personal. Nothing personal on Leona either) but objectively I know he could not be beaten.
As for the UELs staying home, I think that would have been a possibility had the schools issue not been shelved(everyone knows it would never pass in a free vote, and for that reason will likely never be presented), I think what you have said would hold true.
But now that it's off the table, when faced with the prospect of ANOTHER Liberal MPP, they may hold their noses and come out, just to stop the Liberal.
Whether they have the numbers to succeed or not is uncertain.
Jodie Jenkins of the NDP continues to run hard and strong, and I have been hearing nothing but good about him, so he may be able to siphon some votes from Leona as well. Howard Hampton is in Belleville on Thanksgiving Monday, which might help as well.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
Smok I think you misunderstood me. I said if Ernie Parsons was running it would be a cakewalk. I DID NOT say it would be for Drombrowsky. Ernie is known and liked by just about everybody including most Tories! I think John Tory killed his chances of taking back the seat as well as all UEL type lands with his funding move. I BELIEVE many PCs will NOT vote and that gives Drombrowsky an edge. Hope that is cleared up!
07 10 04 Smok Wawelski
Old Willowdaler, I'm still not convinced that it's a done deal for the Liberal, perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but in the last few days, Eric Denouden has dropped references to John Tory in his ads, and is running on his local reputation, and straight policy re health care , law and order and other things.
There's been a recent uptick in crime, specifically drug related arrests and Break and enters, not to mention a registered sex offender moving in amongst us in Belleville, so the law and order theme might play some role since the Liberals have been notoriously weak on that issue.
I would say at this point, advantage Liberals, but it's not time to write off Denouden.
Jodie Jenkins of the NDP is running a strong campaign. Enough to win? doubt it. however, it's possible he can take enough votes away from Leona to allow DenOuden to sneak in. Jodie's been talking issues at the doors, instead of religious schools, and it's winning him some converts.
07 10 03 Old Willowdaler
If Ernie was running it would be a cake walk. I dont know the Liberal well but I do know people close to the PC campaign who come from FOOF (Fine Old Ontario Families) including some close to former PC Deputy Premier Dr. Betty Stephenson. Like alot of small town ridings the funding issue was the decider. This is Loyalist land filled with Scots who came north in 1776 who 200 years later still view the motto ‘As she begin so she will remain Loyal’ as a way of life. As I have said elsewhere on this site the UEL -Scots & English are not going to take John Tory's proposal kindly they kickedout the tories after 42 years in 1985 and for John Tory to have trod down that same path... well to quote Oscar Wilde... ‘Smacks of carelessness’ This seat which would have be key to a either reducing the Grits to a minority or possibly a wafer thin PC minority will now slide solidly into the Liberal camp. Not misquote Churchill ‘never have so many Liberals owed so much to so few (John Tory)’
07 10 03 seasaw
The fact that this is a riding held by the Tories federally, doesn't hurt Leona's chances. Though the PC candidate in the riding is very good, he's no Leona. Remember, she got elected in '99, when the Tories won a majority. In that election, she beat a very popular sitting MPP. Unless, there's a total meltdown in the Liberal campaign, expect Leona to win. Her margin of victory may not be as large as '03, but it'll be much larger than '99.
07 10 02 lrs
although an open seat with retirement of Parsons , Minister of Environment replacing him and with Liberal trend in provincial polls - Liberal Hold -Tories need to work to hold other rural ridings that PCS now hold
07 09 21 Neal Ford
Leona has a problem, not of her own making and that is Jodie jenkins, who is going to take alot of votes on the left from those who can't stand Dalton McGuinty.
I think that, as of today, there is as much a chance that Eric DenOuden will be going to Queen's park.
at the end of the day, the campaign at the provincial level is going to push one or the other over the top.
If Tory runs stronger than Mcguinty in the next two weeks, it goes PC. If McGuinty holds the floor then Leona wins.
Unless Howard hampton really shines, in which case Jodie Jenkins may be the spoiler for leona, allowing DenOuden to come out on top.
07 09 17 William St Resident
Dombrowsky is a very strong candidate and has a lot of traction within both the towns and the rural areas of this riding. While there is considerable unhappiness with the Liberals and the Tories will draw well, Dombrowsky will win this with her no-nonsense nature, direct style, and personal appeal. Expect a 4-5 percent margin of victory for Leona.
07 09 16 William
This riding is held by the Conservatives federally and they only won just a few polls in the urban areas. It's a largely rural riding. Despite Leona Dombrowsky coming from Tweed, she is not well liked north of Highway 7. North Hastings farmers are quite irate over her lack of attention, especially since she's the Agriculture Minister. The need for a large animal vet and the crop damage due to wildlife on the protected list of species is causing many in North Hastings to vote anything but Liberal. She's missed an opportunity as someone at the Cabinet table to resolve this issue and could've leap frogged over the Tory candidate in the North. It might be close, but this is likely going to swing to the PC party.
07 09 14 Neal Ford
Andrew, I respectfully disagree with your calling this riding for the Liberals just yet. And I strongly disagree with your assessment of NDP candidate Jodie Jenkins as weak. He is out there working very hard, and will probably surprise many people. Eric Den Ouden seems to be a formidable contender too.
The religious school issue, if it sends people running from the Tories, if they are anti-liberal, they may end up voting for Jodie Jenkins of the NDP. There are as many people who will vote for Jodie because he is who he is, and not because of the NDP connection.
I think you have seriously underestimated Jenkins. In any case, Andrew, You and I can share our views here for the next month or so, and it will be interesting to see how our notes compare and contrast.
07 09 10 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) The redistributed riding shows the Liberals with more than 50% of the vote and further than 20% ahead of the PC Party. I just don't see how the provincial swing vote would be more than 10% in this riding (meaning the Liberal vote goes down by more than 10% and the PC vote up by more than 10%). There simply isn't enough anger for a swing of that magnitude.
2) The NDP candidate is weak, and the party will not be devoting time or resources here. That diminishes the chances of a major bleed of Liberal votes to the NDP.
3) Leona Dombrowsky is a very strong candidate for the Liberals here. A former school trustee from Tweed in the rural Hastings portion of the riding, she won a much more rural and ?conservative? seat in the face of Mike Harris' reelection in 1999. As Agriculture Minister, she has brought major investments to the riding and obviously will continue to have a big role if a McGuinty reelection is in the offing. As Environment Minister, she was the target of horrible attacks (including having a photo of a shot deer named ?Leona? sent to her) by radical property rights groups that produced sympathy for the diminutive Minister.
4) The riding's traditional rural base is not going to take well to John Tory's plan to fund religious schools. There have been enough tensions here between Catholic and Protestant over the past two hundred years. Throwing in Coptic, Muslim and Jewish just isn't a big vote winner. Also, the threat that under-populated rural schools could close because of students moving to religious schools is a potent one.
5) Belleville is the anchor of the riding, and has been reasonably well served by the government with major investments in the hospital and schools.
07 09 09 A.S.
It's not entirely fair to label Dombrowsky (spell her name right, willya?) a parachute; not only is North Hastings inherited from her old constituency, it happens to be her pre-Queens Park political home base. That said, Dombrowsky has to be counted as one of the more vulnerable cabinet ministers out there, if only because the region's been trending Tory--and remember that her own '99 victory was something of a fluke. Then again, by including Belleville, boundary changes actually work to her favour, so it may not matter whether she's parachute or not. And unlike the weak federal Grit candidates in '04 and '06, she's a sitting member in Cabinet. Expect a substantial swing t/w the PCs maybe. But don't expect it'll lead to certain defeat.
07 09 07 Neal Ford
We?re off and running in what will probably be one of the most hotly contested swing ridings in the province.
PC candidate Eric DenOuden has been working double time to try and take this riding from the Liberals. Blue lawn signs are popping up all over Belleville. I have not yet seen many for Liberal Leona Dombrowski.
The riding opened up when longtime Liberal incumbent Ernie Parsons decided to retire from politics.
If Mr. Parsons had stayed on, this one would be a foregone conclusion in his favour.
Leona Dombrowski is a sitting MPP who served as Agriculture minister in the current McGuinty government, who has moved over from Lennox and Addington next door. She will be a formidable contestant.
It?s far too soon to pick a winner for this riding, but my feeling is the provincial trend will be what eventually tips the scale, assuming, of course both candidates do the full-court-press until the last day. If it looks like the Liberals will win a majority, Dombrowski will win, if it looks like a minority, it could go either way. On the other hand if the campaign looks like it will produce a Tory Govt., Mr DenOuden will be on his way to Queen?s Park.
A wild card in such a tight race as this is the Family Coalition Party. If, as a result of social conservative dissatisfaction with John Tory, they can get 1000 votes or so, Mr DenOuden might be denied victory.
I think it could be THAT close.
07 09 04 Neal Ford
Vito Luceno will be the candidate for the Family Coalition Party in PEH. There is a reasonable chance that the FCP will run close to a full slate of candidates in this election, largely because of social conservatives' dislike for John Tory.
While the FCP is unlikely to win any seats, much less this one, their presence in this extremely tight race could possibly tilt it towards the Liberal Mrs. Dombrowski.
For her part, Mrs Dombrowski is putting up signs which ask voters to ?re-elect? her. It's stretching the truth somewhat. Although she is a sitting MPP , she is NOT the MPP for Prince Edward-Hastings, having moved over to this riding after Ernie Parsons' decision not to seek re-election. so it might leave a bad taste in some people's mouths.
So far, in terms of lawn signs, it's too early to tell with the two leading contenders about even.
As far as satisfaction with the current government goes, while they have dumped considerable sums into this riding, and Northumberland-Quinte West for Long term care beds, there is still a shortage of Doctors. Long term care is a big industry here, so Mr Smitherman's visits here with bags of money in tow may help. Property taxes are another issue here. We pay murderous taxes in Belleville because of the Harris mergers and downloading. This could well mean that some will be reluctant to vote Tory, but on the other hand, The Liberals have done diddly to reduce this burden. Howard Hampton on the other hand is talking about uploading from the municipalities, so that could play well, but the NDP has not been a player here historically .
07 06 26 Neal Ford
To comment on two previous posters here, IF Ernie parsons was running again, he WOULD have held the riding. I loathe the Liberals, but find Mr Parsons to be a very likeable person... certainly not your typical preening show-horse of a politician. With Mr parsons having stepped aside, there is no guarantee that the liberals can hold the seat. Eric DenOuden will represent Tory's Tories, while Jodie Jenkins is now officially nominated for the NDP.
07 04 30 Neal Ford
The Conservatives have chosen Eric Den Ouden as their candidate. he is a homebuilder (Hilden Homes) and very active in the community. Among other things he serves on the board of directors of Quinte Christian School. He's a local Belleville man, so that could upset Mrs. Dombrowski's applecart since she's shifting over from another riding.
I'm assuming the NDP candidate to which CJ Rae refers is Jodie Jenkins. Jodie is quite well known in Belleville, and was very nearly elected to City Council in November.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Ernie Parsons to hold.
Naturally a conservative riding, this could be a ?perfect storm? that allows Parsons to win another term. He has a large margin to work with, and he is popular here when none of the leaders are. Sure, the northern part of this riding is extremely conservative (based on federal results), but in this environment, they might just stay home. If the PC's can pull out a strong, solid right-wing candidate, they might be able to challenge, but the controversy next door in LFL&A will make such more difficult.
07 03 23 CJ Rae
The past term in this riding, the Liberal MPP has shown great strength and works hard for the constituents and is well liked, but has decided to step aside, the next Liberal candidate has lots of experience politically but not as well liked as her predecessor, the riding has not yet picked a conservative candidate yet but if you listen to radio talk shows and read editorials in the local paper the conservative leader is not liked anyway, the younger folk love the NDP but the local candidate is 30-35 yrs old and may not sit well with baby boomers & older which this riding is mostly made up of

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