Prediction Changed
10:23 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Oakville (95%)
Kevin Daniel Flynn
Halton (5%)
Ted Chudleigh

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Kevin Flynn won this seat last time and will win it again because he was clever enough to tap into a rapidly growing environmental movement in one of the richest ridings in Ontario. The Oakville Green group is made up of people from all kinds of political backgrounds who joined together to push for an end to out of control development in the Halton region. Flynn was seen by this group as the best person to take their message forward and they got him elected four years ago. Since then the Liberals passed the Greenbelt Act that has saved tens of thousands of acres of land in the Halton region. With the Tory record on the environment dragging down local candidate, Rick Byers, and the Liberals headed for a second majority government, there's now way the voters in this riding will want any change in their representative at Queen's Park. Look for Flynn to win by an even bigger spread this time. I'll say the Liberals win this by 3800 votes.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
This will be a close one. Oakville is changing but its a high income area and the WASP's will not be pleased with Tory first with his funding stunt which annoyed them and then by his flip flop which will anger core tories as they will view him as just as bad as McGunity for breaking promises but dumber for not even waiting for the election before doing so. I am stunned by the PC campaign frankly. THese guys know how to win but seem to be determined every other day to shoot themselves in the foot, only pausing to change feet. While I agree that Mr. Flynn is not a Bonnie Brown/Gary Carr type I don’t think you can discount him so easily in view of the campaign. Even in the 905 area the grits have a lead. I think Flynn squeeks in again on this one but not sure yet
07 09 23 Angry Ontarian
After reading the below comments, you can tell the Kevin Flynn campaign is stacking this page. Here are mid-campaign observations from someone who used to live in Oakville:
1) Kevin Flynn's ‘popularity’ in town isn't what it appears. It's mainly amongst the town elite (like Rob Burton's people), and average citizens (outside Bronte anyway) have little emotional attachment to him. He is no Gary Carr.
2) Licks Burger Poll(s) in town (i know they're not scientific, but they have been accurate in the past), have PC's in the lead.
3) With Greens running a candidate this time, its only going to split the left wing-vote even further, ultimately hurting Flynn.
07 09 22 Harold
I will say this is too close to call. As a 40+ year Oakville Resident we need to see this election as what it is now, in the beginning of a campaign and too close to call.
I'd give Flynn a small edge in the sign war .. and as we all know Oakvillians hate signs as it messes up our beautiful lawns.
If the election were held today Flynn would win. No one has a word in Oakville to say against him and it is felt he has put a sincere effort. Should John Tory ‘pick up’ with a boost and the election swings to the Tories Byers will win.
I think the religious school issue hurts Tory a bit in Oakville as Okaville is not huge in faith based schools outside the Public and Catholic Schools.
As always the Ford Plant is in Oakville and that is a local issue.
One of the best things about this election is the advanced poll at Oakville Place the big mall. The Returning Officer should be commended for having an advanced poll at a high traffic point with good parking and accesible by public transportation.
07 09 16 A.S.
There's one thing 100% guaranteed in Oakville: the Green Party will do better than last time. (Thanks to a last-minute nomination glitch, this is the only seat where they didn't run a candidate in '03.) And as a seat where green principles have taken municipal political fore in recent years, I *could* see Greens faring above average, maybe (at least, if they're polling well above 6% provincially) in lieu of the NDP--but rather obviously, that's trivia beneath the clear Grit-PC race up above. Now, I wouldn't sell Rick Byers short even after his several past runs; but if Kevin Flynn prevails, it's a clear sign that Chretien/Martin grand-coalition affluent federal Liberalism has successfully graduated to the provincial realm--and remember: the MPP he replaced became a federal Liberal, too. As did the CPC dude who replaced him federally, etc etc.
07 09 15 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) Oakville has become a very interesting example of what happens in wealthy ridings when the economy is doing just fine: they become environmentalists. Anne Mulvale came a hair's breadth from losing to a greenie ally of Flynn's in 2003, only to be toppled by the same greenie in 2006. Flynn's big promise in 2003 was to preserve a piece of Ontario owned property to use as a park, a promise he delivered on. I don't think the PCs, with their pledges to repeal the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act, are going to appeal to those Green voters. And while they are green, they are still wealthy, and play for government. Don't expect the NDP or Green Party to surprise or even draw too heavily here.
2) Flynn is a well organized former councilor with deep roots in the riding, especially local greens. He is perceived as delivering on Ford, health care, education and transit. There are no burning platforms for change here, except perhaps further enhancement of environmental protections.
3) Rick Byers actually strikes me as a classic John Tory candidate: a life-long PC hack who worked for Mike Wilson in Mulroney's government, ran and lost a couple times, worked on Bay Street privatizing government assets and did some charity work that mostly consists of fundraising. I'm not sure if he is going to bring much to the ticket.
4) Oakville is just the kind of riding where the old school conservatives are not going to be happy about the private school funding issue. After all, state-support for teaching Sharia law doesn't seem to line up with Edmund Burke for me.
07 09 12 Jack Cox
I truly believe Kevin Flynn will win this riding, he had a weak opponent last time and I know it's going to be much closer then it was last time. With John Tory and Dalton McGuinty coming here it's going to be a battle ground riding. I think Kevin will win this but it's going to be very very tight. This riding has changed dramatically since 1993 and i would say since around 2000, this is still a very wealthy riding, but it is one with a social conscience and they are not going to vote for somebody who is going to damage our public schools.
07 09 04 sub-urban
Flynn should never have won this riding. Swept in on a Liberal tide in 2003 only because the PC candidate took his conservative base for granted, expect him to be swept out if Liberal support across the province is reduced by even the smallest amount. It is in this riding that such a shift will be felt most strongly.
07 09 04 The Oakvillian
905er must be on Kevin's payroll to make this statement ?solid record of Ford money, new hospital to be built, QEW widening, more GO service?. To set the record straight, Kevin and Dalton cannot take credit for Ford money - Clay Ford gets the nod for that; the hospital - is leaving and going to north Oakville (not sure KF really wants to brag about that - there are LOTS of angry east Oakville residents that are not amused by that... this is the BIG SLEEPER ISSUE HERE FOLKS; QEW widening was a Tory project as was the GO money (additional track).
Having said all of that, Rick Byers is a nice guy but his chances are ALL John Tory - if Tory does well for will he. While I think that Kevin can win, I think the momentum points a little to a Tory win if trends continue. If Mayor Burton sticks his nose in this for Kevin (I suspect he will) then I think Kevin will be toast - those are NOT coat tails that I would dare try and ride!! Burton (?I will not raise taxes? - 2006) and McGuinty (?I will not raise taxes? - 2003) must have gone to the same politician school and people will NOT forget that promise... afterall ?it's the economy stupid?...
07 08 15 905er
Every election since '93 federally and the last provincial, pundits and media predict the tories will take this one. Not going to happen. Flynn is in the local paper almost weekly, with a solid record of Ford money, new hospital to be built, QEW widening, more GO service, ... this riding is a lock for the Libs. Byers is a great PC candidate.. they should have put him in a more winnable riding- like the guy alot, but like the federal campaign, he will be the most surprised on election night when the numbers don't go his way.
07 08 13 JF
Flynn will hold the riding with little trouble. The demographics of the town have changed dramatically over the past 15 years and at least 2/3 of the population are middle class. It will be a LONG TIME before the lunacy of the Harris / Eves Conservative policies are forgotten....
07 07 28 K.S.
I see in The Oakville Beaver John Tory making another visit to town. He seems to do this frequently, so PC's are running a good campaign here. McGuinty never shows up. My bets are placed on blue here.
07 07 16 Steve V
Tory pick up. No question.
Kevin Flynn is a good man, but he can't hold this riding. To be honest, I was surprised to not see Harper pick it up last time. A lot of that has to with Bonnie Brown's personal popularity. Flynn's been working the riding hard, but he can't pull this one off. The momentum is against him.
07 03 24 Angry Ontarian
John Tory should win Oakville. The most recent vote (2006 federal election) saw Oakville being the closest 905 riding Harper didn't win (by 1%). And Harper/Eves won the same GTA ridings.
Like Mississauga South next-door, most constituents are well-off/WASP and don't like tax hikes or left-wing fiscal policy. A man like John Tory should appeal to this crowd. And redistribution benefits the Conservatives here, like in Mississauga South and Burlington.

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