Prediction Changed
10:57 PM 05/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Northumberland—Quinte West
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Northumberland (84.1%)
Lou Rinaldi
Prince Edward-Hastings (15.9%)
Ernie Parsons

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 10 B.H.
This riding was not lost to the PC's because of faith based funding it was lost because we had the wife of two time loser Doug Galt who so badly wanted to be back that he put his wife in the race so he could again attempt to get back into office. First he lost back to back elections at two different levels of government now his wife. 3 loses in only 4 years under the Galt PC banner. When will the local federal and provincial PC's accept that the name Galt is political poison in Northumberland Quinte West.
07 10 09 WL (just initials please)
The Conservatives have run a brutal campaign across the province, but it has been exceptionally poor here in Northumberland. They had a very divisive nomination battle that saw a couple of decent hopefuls shut out by the spouse of a tired old ‘Reformer’. This has resulted in Galt having a very limited pool of campaign workers and supporters. Many Conservatives are upset and will be staying home. Some are so angry they have switched camps, not to the hated Liberals but all way over to Carolyn Blaind of the NDP. This is highly significant. When I talk to die-hard tories who say they will vote NDP and take a lawn sign (showing the colours) they are well and truly disenchanted. So I predict Rinaldi wins this one handily, Blaind does very well for the NDP, Smith-Torrie gets more Green votes than any previous Green candidate in this area and Galt free-falls. Galt may finish second, if she's lucky, but her numbers will be way down and a great embarrassment to local Conservatives in a riding that has traditionally been quite a close Lib/Con battleground.
07 10 06 Ryan McMurray
Anyone who has been reading any of the editorials from across this riding up until yesterday knows how limited Cathy Galt’s chances actually are. I have to agree with James's comments - his point was that Doug Galt lost not only back to back elections but at two different levels of government. Next thing you know his neophyte wife is suddenly put up as candidate skewering the chances of some very strong fresh candidates. The message was quite clear in back to back elections a Galt will not be elected here again as Dog Catcher or anything else. I think it is the height of hubris for Doug Galt to again try and seek re-election through his wife for a third time and that hubris will be well proven on October 10th.
07 10 05 Cobourg Guy
I'll just give the PCs an edge in my prediction because I don't think it's fair the comments from James below about Galt riding the party coat tails when Rinaldi is also noted to be sticking closely to the script and by appearing to stand for nothing and everything. Rinaldi is stated to be playing the Liberal style by taking the middle road. So if Galt is doing the same, how does that judge that she will lose? The original ‘Northumberland’ of this riding is not a bellwether riding like Peterborough. It could go either way despite the Provincial trend. When the NDP were in power, this riding was held by Liberal MPP Joan Fawcett.
In this day and age, municipal government has really become the top level of government with all the duties and responsibilities. Queen's Park is really where the MPPs end up focussing their time these days. So a moot argument then.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
Like Prince Edward this is UEL land and I think Tory shot himself in the foot with both barrels by pushing the funding issue then shot himself in the head by flipping back with the Free Vote to try to hold old time PC's who will not view him kindly. This will give the liberal an edge. It will be FAR Closer this time less than 3% in my respectful opinion but Liberal thanks to Mr. Tory. Oh as far as the GALT comments Let us remember that Pete Peterson ran for the liberals in London ON for years and of course produced 1 Premier- 1 Federal Minister and 1 MPP in 2 parties so that is not an issue in my books.
07 10 01 James
What's in a name. Well a lot it seems in Northumberland Quinte-West. Conservative candidate Cathy Galt is following on the heals of two successive losses (one Federal and one Provincial) by her husband Doug Galt. This will be the third time in less than 4 years that the Galt name has been put forward to the electorate. When one considers that part of Doug Galt's failure in his bid for provincial re-election last time around was seen by some as a result of spending too much time serving his political masters in Queen's Park rather than his constituents, one has to wonder why Cathy Galt would be so determined to tie herself so tightly to John Tory, the Conservative leader and present a ‘me too’ platform based on ‘made in Queen's Park’ solutions rather than focus on the real issues locally.
07 09 27 RyanOntario
Don't bet this one of some minor coffee shop gossip.
Will try and better explain my prediction for this riding as first one was short. first this riding will be close as in the last 3 recent elections federally and provincially it was decided by around only 500-3000 votes each time. second this riding is a rural/urban mix comprised of cobourg, port hope , trenton ,campbellford and a few townships in between. these areas will not all vote the same some will go pc and some liberal. third both main candidates are well known Lou Rinaldi has been the mpp for 4 years and Cathy Galt is wife of former mpp Doug Galt , they both have alot of knowledge of this riding and its issues of importance. so this all makes for an interesting race. provincial trends might swing this riding or they might not.
07 09 27 Dale W.
The word on the street, in the coffee shops and around the office coolers is that the Galt campaign is struggling. Her limited knowledge of what is concerning the county, coupled with outlandish comments prior and subsequent to the campaign and cardboard tow-the-party-line approach is not affording her any new found success. Rinaldi is also sticking closely to the script, but he has remained uncontroversial by appearing to stand for nothing, and everything. He is playing the Liberal style (an effective style) by taking the middle road. Lou's personal reputation as a decent, honest politician will play a big part in his imminent re-election. The NDP appear to be making gains. Blaind is an eloquent orator with credentials to back up the NDP platform she is disseminating. I doubt it will equate to any real shot at victory, but perhaps more of a morale boost for the future. The NDP needs to offer something more for the farmers, if they ever expect to take ridings like Northumberland Quinte West. Greens are stalled, and I doubt if they will ever make gains. Smith-Torrie, by all accounts, lacks knowledge of the issues, and is the most un-known of all candidates. Expect nothing more than traditional fringe support for the Greens.
NDP - building speed
Liberals - steady as she goes
PC's - ready the life boats, cuz they're sinkin'.
Greens - who?
07 09 22 A.S.
I don't know about this 'wife of the former MPP' PC wisdom; sure, it worked for Christine Elliott (maybe the psychology's different when you look more like Mrs. Claus than a yuppie career chick?), but Doug Galt's no Jim Flaherty--at the same time, Rinaldi's a bit of a 'lucked in' Grit in his own right. Rural/exurban gentrification in N'umberland and the addition of Quinte West has slowly diluted the natural Tory strength, anyway--though without depleting it--it's almost a case where if either side wins, it'll be by provincial-trend default...
07 09 16 William
Considering that history shows us that governments rarely ever win as many seats the second time and stand to usually lose some, and whereas Northumberland Quinte West is a ‘swing riding’, I'm going to predict that that the PC party and Galt will win this one. It might be by a hundred votes... but for my reasons cited, I'm predicting Cathy Galt will likely beat Rinaldi. If Rinaldi was a high profile candidate, he could easily knock Galt out of the water. But he isn't. Further, Rinaldi just rides the Party coat tails. Whereas other Liberal MPPs have lists of accomplishments to their credit.
07 09 13 RyanOntario
In making my prediction here note i feel this riding will be close and the winner will take it by 1000 votes or less .
This riding is more a swing riding but mostly pc/conservative and the pc candidate is wife of former mpp Doug Galt so that should make this race interesting .
07 06 04 P.C.
The argument put forward by ?G.D? seems to be inherently flawed and skewed with false information. It is written in the same manner as the press releases written by a Mr. John Tory, which G.D. acutely noted that he visited the riding of Northumberland-Quinte West. What G.D. leaves out, is that while in the riding Mr. Tory blatantly lied about wait times ? attempting to use petty fear tactics and false information to manipulate Ontario voters. Lou Rinaldi along with the hospital pointed out his misinformation that was distributed by Cathy Galt and spoken about by Mr. Tory, humiliating the PC Leader, resulting in him having to publicly apologize.
Moreover, G.D. attempts to paint a picture of Lou Rinaldi as a man of inaction. This is simply not the case. Lou Rinaldi personally created the first ever Family Health Services Centre in Brighton, which the Province recognized as innovative, efficient and effective. Now, there are HSC?s all over the province, with one in Port Hope that recently had its ribbon cutting. This is just one example out of many.
G.D. spoke of the Campbellford chocolate factory closing down. It has not closed down, but in fact was bought by a different company ? it is still in full operation owned by Bloomers Chocolates. No wonder Mr. Rinaldi seemed unconcerned! Before G.D. decides to write about the state of affairs in this riding, perhaps educating him or herself would be a good start.
In the clear straw man fallacy that takes place of how Northumberland-Quinte West citizens vote, G.D. discusses how the 2003, 2004 and 2006/7 elections took place. I would like to take this opportunity to note that the elections talked about here are federal, not provincial. As one can imagine, provincial and federal elections are quite different. I can easily say that BECAUSE there are conservatives in office up in Ottawa, the Province of Ontario will obviously be Liberal (Re: Harris/Chretien years). This type of logic just doesn?t make sense. It has to do about the quality of the leader, being Premier McGunity and M.P.P. Lou Rinaldi, not about silly figures and numbers that have no actual bearing on the future.
Cathy Galt is not qualified. She lied and embarrassed John Tory not just once, but twice (remember her creation of a well-metering issue? That went well). Check your facts G.D., and if you don?t believe me, we?ll talk in October.
07 04 02 Dale W.
Northumberland-Quinte West has a record of voting with the trends. If a liberal is elected in this riding, a Liberal government is likely. A bellwether riding. Additionally, Lou Rinaldi has not done anything to significantly discredit himself, and seems to be riding the general contentment with Premier Mcguinty. The local impact from the recent budget, and the Premier's appearance locally will probably have a positive impact for the Grits. The PC candidate will have an uphill climb, and lacks the profile of Lou Rinaldi - long time Brighton Mayor and owner of the local speedway. The NDP has never shown well, and no trends suggest a shift in the vote to the New Democrats. History will dictate this election. The only instance in recent years when Northumberland's MP or MPP sat in opposition was Joan Fawcette - a Liberal MPP with the NDP in Office.
07 03 27 G. D.
Northumberland Quinte West is a major swing riding - every election in my life has gone the way of the actual election, even in terms of proportion (for example, in recent elections: 2003 major Liberal victory in Northumberland, 2004 extremely close Liberal victory, 2006/7 slightly larger CPC victory). Thus I see the October 2007 election going much the same way: Whatever the final outcome, Northumberland will mirror it.
I think that this riding will go PC partially because of this trend. John Tory is a very capable leader who is already placing a focus on Northumberland Quinte-West. He's visited the riding a couple times a year since becoming PC Leader and every time he's taken the time meet with every day people and find out their concerns. Already he's had several meetings with groups of farmers from the area to find out their concerns.
The other side is going to be the local candidates. Lou Rinaldi is a nice man and a former mayor of Brighton, but he is a terrible public speaker and debater. Moreover, he has not stood up for issues in Northumberland. Whenever major events take place in our riding, often PC MPP's from other ridings raise the issues in Queen's Park - such as when the Campbellford factory closed and Rinaldi was seemingly unconcerned.
Cathy Galt, the wife of former MPP Doug Galt, undoubtedly will carry some of that baggage with her into the election. People will wonder if she's qualified, thinking that she's only involved because of her husband. They will quickly be proven wrong, as Cathy is extremely intelligent (has a degree in Political Science as well), a great speaker and highly personable.
I think that due to the quality of both John Tory and Cathy Galt, combined with Lou Rinaldi's failures and Northumberland Quinte-West's history, this riding will definately go PC in 2007.

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