Prediction Changed
10:52 PM 04/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Nipissing (100%)
Monique M. Smith

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 N~Jam101
Liberal hold for sure. This is an unusual riding as North Bay and Mattawa are in Northern Ontario but the southern part of the riding is not. It is also unusual for Northern Ontario because it is a battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. Mike Harris was MPP here and Premier and he usually got only about half of the votes. Every since he quit, PC support has fallen enough to assure Liberal victory here.(yes I know about Al's by-election win but that was a by-election)
07 10 03 J.B.
I'm calling this as a LIBERAL HOLD. The Mike Harris days of the '90s are long gone!
Nipissing is probably the only northern Ontario riding that's most likely to sway with the province's overall opinion.
Monique Smith for the win.
07 10 03 Garth
Two polls have been published the last few days. On Sat. Ipsos-Reid predicted the following ranges fot Nipissing--Libs--45% to 48%
--PCs--38% to 41%
On Oct. 2 the MCTV Oracle poll results were announced--Libs--42%
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
This might be Mike Harris’ old riding, but remember one important thing. If every riding followed the mathematical vote of their parties, then this website would be pointless. The whole reason for a website like this is to take a look at the riding, and more importantly, at the Candidates. This was Mike Harris’ old riding – not and old PC riding, a Mike Harris riding. Free Thinker mentioned momentum going to the PC’s, we are a week from E-Day and the momentum has clearly shifted against, not towards Tory. Looks to me like the formula for a Liberal win here.
07 09 26 Northerner
While I'll give the edge to the Libs, the Conservatives do have a fighting chance because Bill Vrebosh has distanced himself from John Tory. While Mike Harris was popular here, being a Red Tory from Toronto is practically the kiss of death.
07 09 22 A.S.
While Monique Smith might not be stellar, there's a strange normalcy to her stint in office that underlines how Nipissing was never as eternal and inevitable a Tory bastion as Mike Harris made it look. That it remains in play reflects how, well, the PCs want *some* kind of (re)fresh(ed) foothold in the north, and where better or more obvious than in the erstwhile stronghold of the Six-Toed Sloth. Maybe if there's a problem with that as far as recent Tory trending goes, it's that Nipissing's less 'frontierish' than neighbours like Parry Sound-Muskoka or Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke. That is, urban North Bay dominates the seat the way that, say, Brantford dominates Brant. Though I wouldn't guarantee it by a long shot, I wouldn't be surprised if Nipissing roughly replicates its federal sister seat by being one of the few seats swinging away from rather than toward the Tories...
07 09 19 Japhtastic
sorry, did someone say ?i happened to be travelling through the riding. . ? of course, like on your way to that CEO seminar featuring Donald Trump at lion's park in powassan. yeah, me too.
monique smith. why? just two little things: a hospital in mattawa that nobody dreamed would happen, and a hospital in north bay that finally got delivered. forget all that mike harris stomping ground business. the ghost of mike harris only haunts the province's ether now. nipissing buried that guy after the al macdonald fiasco. blame tory for resurrecting him.
07 09 13 RyanOntario
updating my prediction , happened to pass thru this riding and noticed alot of signs for both candidates. its really too close to call and it didn't appear either had more signs up than the other.
but this still is Mike Harris's old riding so it will be really interesting to see what happens here on election day .
07 09 12 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Just today, I was down at the Nipissing returning office, getting myself registered as a voter in this riding (having just moved here for work a few weeks ago). The liberals were out of the gate first with posters on public land about a week for the start of the campaign. The PCs were about 4 days behind them. On private lawns, Liberals out number PC signs 2:1, but that's likely due to the Liberals just getting out of the gate first. And we all know, signs don't vote and they really mean didilly. What does matter is that the grits are down provincially just enough to be in a statistical dead heat in this riding. I would say that the PCs may even have an edge with the surprisingly (at least I thought so when I moved here) large seinor's community (McGuinty has some health care issues to contend with and this will be big with the 60+ crowd). The franco-Ontarian vote (another large demographic) will help the grits, as will the influx of students at Nipissing University (a small influx but university standards ?down south?). Bottom line: Way too close to call right now. More to come as the campaign unfolds.
07 09 11 nesooite
Bellweather riding that is too close to call. This is a riding that the Tories have to win if they are going to win the election. Other than Parry Sound Muskoka, it is the only riding in play for the PC's. Liberals will pump money in this riding to maintain it. The winner will follow the provincial trend.
07 08 11 RyanOntario
too close to call for sure . expect to see each party leader here at least once during campaign.
think there are certain factors which will help out each candidate .
Monique Smith liberal candidate/mpp will benefit from the large student vote at nipissing university/canadore college . to an extent some of this vote will also go ndp/green.
The more urban polls in north bay might also help her out as well.
Bill Vrebosch pc candidate will benefit from the rural areas of the riding and the large senior vote . and his previous experience in municipal government will help.
unknown factor is when i drive thru this riding specifically North Bay it seems quiet and doesn't really change . you go downtown or the mall you get the feeling the economy here is stalled and idling .
the 4 laning of highway 11 and the new hospital are both neutral issues as far as i'm concerned as each party supports them .
07 08 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
While we totally agree with free_thinker's assessment that long term planning leads to the success we see today, it's more along the lines of thought that the political science geeks that blog this site have, and not necessarily that of the average Joe Six-Pack. The average voter sees good things for their riding under a Liberal government and will attribute that success to the Liberals. Bottom line is the new hospitals will help the Liberals, yet this riding is still way too close to call.
07 07 28 skeptic
The amount of negative local press Monique has received is unreal....I don't live in the riding...but what is going on?
Taking that into account and the closeness of the last election...I say PC
07 07 28 EP
It might be a little too much to suggest Dalton McGuinty would have difficulty remembering Monique Smith?s name. She was his chief of staff once upon a time afterall...
07 07 23 free_thinker
Let me just remind those on this forum that partisan rhetoric does little to contribute positively to this debate and the overall task of trying to predict the ridings. Arguing somehow that Monique Smith, a back-bench Liberal, one whom the premier would have difficulty even remembering her name, has delivered for this riding is a fallacy. Voters know it, and so do the people on this forum and the Hospital(s) and Highway 11 construction are a result of funding allocations by the Eves government and to a lesser extend the Harris government. See, a key to governing properly is long-term planning; something Harris/Eves did well, thus the success we are seeing today in these tasks.
This is a simple conclusion....with that said; this riding is too close to call. Look to Election Day for a super close race.
07 07 09 Joe
Prior to the last election, most of the people in north bay had one priority of their MPP - build a new hospital. After 15 years of promises, that hospital (and a second one in Mattawa) is now under construction. Folks will give credit to where is due, and on the hospital, Monique Smith delivered. When I drive highway 11, work on the 4 laning is steadily moving along.
Last weekend I saw Monique spend two hours talking to people at the Calendar Canada day event - she's not a photo op politician like some of them!
07 07 08 a little perspective please
Has anyone actually paid attention to this riding? Smith has delivered an incredible amount to the riding. Two hospitals. The work on the highway is amazing. The waterfront. A new children's hospital. And the ?new? Tory candidate was a liberal. He doesn't stand a chance. Smith is a great MPP who is well-liked in the riding and has done a great job for her area.
07 07 08 A woman's view
Monique Smith the current Liberal MPP has done more for Nipissing in the past 44 months than Mike Harris did in 21 years. Currently the local boys club is trying to downplay the fact that she has brought the completion of Highway 11 down to the last 40 klicks or so; brought two hospitals to the district and has more than been able to handle the slings and arrows thrown her way. I trust that voters will look to her record and respond to that rather than the Tory negative slant.
07 06 11 Northerner
It seems to me 'Angry Ontarian' has never been to Northern Ontario! This is a very working class place where people a lot of people are tired of being pushed around by Toronto. Red Tories have never been competitive here and never will be. John Tory is about as appealing a candidate Northern Ontario about as well as John Kerry is in West Virginia. Grassroots conservatives won't be working hard for Tory, and many will sit this election out or cast a protest vote.
Mike Harris was wildly popular in Nipissing but that's because he was local and a populist who appealed to the people with common sense ideas. Not a Red Tory who thinks we should go back to the days of Bill Davis and Larry Grossman and mimic the Liberal platform.
07 05 13 Ryan N
This is the only northern Ontario riding that's TCTC.It's old PC territory during the Harris days, but those have long since passed. This is a 2-way race between the Liberals and PCs. Based on past results, the NDP don't stand a chance.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Too close to call.
Sure this is Mike Harris's old riding, but that is from a different era. Monique Smith has not been a strong MPP, and she may be vulnerable to either a PC gain or an NDP gain which could split the vote for the Tories - although the fact the boundaries do not match federal boundaries may reduce such potential. A strong PC candidate can take this, otherwise, Liberal hold.
07 05 10 free_thinker
I'm leaning towards saying that Monique Smith is toast. However, my brain obliges me to be a little more reserved. This was Harris' former riding; however, it is Liberal federally and provincially. This election though could put the momentum to the PC for many reasons. Also, their nomination meeting is between three solid candidates. They even had to rent out and entire arena to accommodate. With a solid team in place and the proper provincial campaign the tories will take this. Progressive Conservative by 2000 votes.
07 05 06 Angry Ontarian
TCTC. The riding of Mike Harris only went Grit by 3,000 votes last time. My hunch is if the Tories nominate a good candidate, and pull their numbers up provincially, they'll reclaim this seat. Afterall, they held it for many years in the past.

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