Prediction Changed
12:02 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Nickel Belt
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Nickel Belt (100%)
Shelley Martel

2003 Result (redistributed):

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

07 10 09 N~Jam101
This may be the closest race in Northern Ontario. Although Ron Dupuis really does have a chance, I feel that France Gelinas will win. The reason being that Shelley Martel was able to hold on for 17 years and unlike what some outsiders say...many in Northern Ontario vote for the party rather than who is the candidate! From what I've heard, Gelinas is well liked and has been having a good campaign. Looking at the 2003 election, there were some parts of Greater Sudbury that were strongly Liberal and some strongly NDP. I don't feel many will change from the party they voted for last time.
07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
I was undecided about this riding until today. The NDP campaign seems to be picking up real steam in this final stretch, likely from some angry Tories who would rather vote NDP then Liberal. With that bump in the polls they will find it easier to win close ridings like this one. Even with the retirement of the MPP, they should be able to hold on here. This is, after all, a historically NDP strong area. I would not be surprised of the win is with a fair sized margin when all is said and done.
07 10 07 DL
According to the Sudbury Star, the NDP's Gelinas leads the Liberals in an Oracle poll 49% to 41%. With NDP support across the province up about 4% from 2003 and with Liberals down a bit - there is no way that a seat that went NDP in 2003 is not going to easily go NDP this time as well. NDP hold.
07 10 07 Former Sudburian
A recent Oracle Poll published in the Sudbury Star puts Gelinas ahead of Dupuis 49 per cent to 41 per cent with the Tories in single digits. Considering the NDP we'll probably throw it's organizational weight into Nickelbelt over Sudbury, I think it's safe to call this as an NDP hold.
07 10 04
Those predicting that a Liberal grab is inevitable here now that the NDP candidate isn't named Martel need to remember that prior to 1999, ‘Nickel Belt’ and ‘Sudbury East’ were two different things. Sudbury East was the Martel fiefdom -- but Nickel Belt was also an NDP stronghold under Floyd Laughren and Blain Morin. So the NDP vote here *does* run stronger than *just* Martel loyalty.
Which doesn't necessarily mean I'm prepared to call it for France Gelinas -- Ron Dupuis does also have very strong support, and the retirement of a longtime incumbent is exactly when party shifts can happen in this type of riding. But don't make the mistake of thinking that the Martel family name was the *only* thing standing in the way of this being a Liberal seat, because the NDP does have much deeper roots here than that.
07 10 04 Doug
I was through Nickel Belt for 3 days, an area I represent for OSSTF. Looks like the NDP will take it again but it is never a slam dunk. Last election was a ‘throw the bums (Tories)out’ election which skews the vote to the Liberals. This election the provincial Libs are down 2-4 points in every poll and the NDP is up 2-4 points in every poll. Any political scientist will tell you that this means all NDP incumbent seats will be returned and the NDP will seriously challenge in those seats where it just missed behind liberal last time such as the Sault or Algoma and the island. NDP will finish 42-46%, Libs 36-40% and PC 11-15%.
07 10 03 Old Willowdaler
I know many people believe that this seat is loyal to the Martel Clan but I think the NDP vote here runs deeper. THe mines have now changed to foreign hands which does not sit well with almost ALL Canadians let alone the workers of the North. The Tories in Ottawa will NOT protect our companies such as Alcan/Inco/Falconbridge etc as they have proven and as much as it pains me to say as a Genetic Liberal I think we failed Canada as well during our term. The meaning of this is I do not think the people of Nickel Belt will have the faith of the Liberals to protect them as the Con/Grits on both levels have NOT for the past few years. This In my respectfull opinion will mean that the scared (rightfully so!!!!) people in the Northern Mining community will elect an NDPer. The Martel's are the NDP in this area but I still feel that the dippers will take this seat on the 10th. That is my opinion sitting as an armchair quarterback in Toronto
07 10 03 binriso
The PC's? NO WAY! lucky to break 15% here. The race is most likely polarized between the Liberals and NDP. Probably what will happen is that the PC's take enough of a chunk off of the Liberals to let the NDP's slide in on the left. Still this one will be pretty close although its been strong for the NDP in the past, which gives them an advantage over everyone else.
07 10 01 Rich
I'm calling this one Too Close to Call. With the Martel name not being on the ballot it really is an open seat. The PCs came close to winning this seat in 1998 in the by-election after Floyd Laughren retired and again in 1999 in the general election (2nd both times, including beating the current Liberal candidate in 1999). The voters of this riding identify more with personality than with party affiliation and I'm unconvinced that either Ron Dupuis or France Gelinas inspire a lot of loyalty. The wildcard is the Tory candidate who may be able to pull off an upset if the stars align in the last week of the campaign
07 10 01 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
Took a drive through this riding this weekend, half expecting to see a sign battle between the Liberals and the NDP. Can't really say there was any front runner, or even a major sign battle. Yes there were signs but not to the extent expected. Have to say an equal distribution between the three main parties, though one lawn sign really did catch our eye: Vote Chad Kroger, MPP for Nickel Belt (Chad Kroger's the lead singer of Nickelback...*sigh*...okay *I* thought it was funny). In any case the election here in the Near North is somewhat of a yawn and it's hard to tell just how the electorate is swaying.
07 09 30 lrs
prediction - Liberal gain in this open seat- Liberal came close last time with Martel running- popular Liberal running according to locals on this site- checked Sudbury Star which I assume is most read paper in area and Dupuis in the paper a lot -I assume Tory vote here as in many N. Ont seats will be very low which will help Liberals unless Tories in this seat will consider NDP option to try to keep Liberals to a minority- will Tories here vote in a strategic manner ?
07 09 29 lrs
Liberal gain- since seat is open with Martel retiring-why not have a government member ?- only slight NDP plurality should be wiped out with Martel gone- Tory vote will be minimal -if Liberal campaign continues to widen provincial lead in last week and half -seat should fall
07 09 25 J.B.
The NDP is definitely not taking this riding for granted.
Whether or not many people have even heard of the name France Gelinas, Shelley Martel is heavily assisting her behind-the-scenes to ensure that the Nickel Belt remains in the NDP fold.
It's in Shelley's best interest (personally and politically) to aggressively push the NDP vote here.
She may be retired, but the Martel name still holds weight, even if she's campaigning for somebody else from the sidelines.
07 09 16 A.S.
Does anyone *really* think NDPers will take Nickel Belt for granted in Shelley Martel's absence? Somehow, there's no longer that feeling that a retiring NDPer is inevitably handing a general-election seat over to the Liberals or whomever (cf. Hamilton West in '03). Then again, given the Orazietti shock in the Soo, who knows--but in case of Liberal threat, there's one thing the Dippers ought to be thankful for: that the provincial Nickel Belt wasn't redistricted into Sturgeon Falls the way its federal counterpart was...
07 09 15 rexthedog
May be not a lock for the Dippers this time because of the Martel retirement. Nevertheless, somewhat higher NDP numbers across the province, and Martel assisting, I expect a probable hold albeit with a reduced margin of victory.
07 09 14 northernr
Anyone who is on the ground in Nickel Belt can see this is a NDP hold. The new democrats have their campaign in overdrive and Dupuis is not anywhere to be seen by comparison. He is not nearly as popular as the other posts boast. He almost lost his municipal re-election bid earlier this year and scraped by with only a few dozen votes to spare.
07 09 11 nesooite
Liberal gain. With Martel dynasty done, the NDP will be finished here. Many people in Nickel Belt voted for Martel name, not NDP. Liberals have a strong candidate with Dupuis and they have been licking their chops for years to take this riding. Especially with large francophone population.
07 09 11 full
Popular local politician Ron Dupuis will surely build upon the good numbers the liberals got here under Alex McCauley in 2003. This seat will surely go liberal for the first time in a while. Who's ever heard from France Gelinas in the past????
07 09 04
Watch this riding to be the only liberal pick up from the last election. Greater Sudbury is booming and with Shelly Martel not seeking re-election, City Councilor Ron Dupuis will win it. I'm from Sudbury and I have never heard of France Gelinas, had the NDP nominated someone half decent they would have held the riding.
07 08 09 RyanOntario
without the ndp incumbent this riding will be very interesting but i'm not going to try and predict which party will win it. could see either of the 3 winning it depending on what happens as the election progresses across the province. sense this riding might want a government mpp for a change since it also has an opposition mp federally.
not sure there is much interest in electing another opposition backbencher here.
could see it going ndp if it looks like a minority , liberal if there leading or even pc if it looks like they would form a government.
07 05 20 R.D.
Shelly Martel isn't running again. While I would still give the NDP a definite edge here, this seat has got to be called a undecided at least until we hear who will be running now.
07 05 19 Ryan N
Martel's recent decision NOT to run again in October might have some effect in this riding. The Martel family has represented the Sudbury/Nickel Belt area for decades.
Apparently, she still plans on assisting the incoming NDP candidate get elected.
With Liberal support down in the province, I still think this riding will remain NDP, while nearby Sudbury will remain Liberal.
07 05 19 Andrew Cox
Too Close to Call.
Wow. I would never, ever have guessed that Shelley Martel would pack it in while her husband was still leader of the party. Variations on this seat have been in the Martel family since before I was born. Unless one of the three parties finds a truly ?super-star? candidate, I'd have to say all bets are off. I'll wait for the nominations to close for all three parties, but right now, this seat is up for grabs.
07 05 18 B.O.
Late breaking news: Martel is not running again. This seat is now no longer the same NDP lock that it was before. The Liberals now have a slight chance to win this riding. The NDP still has the edge, but if the Liberals were to get a strong candidate, they might be able to do it.
07 05 02 Ryan N
Martel has strongly represented the Nickel Belt for years. She's a popular and outspoken MPP, this riding is an NDP lock.

Submit Information here

Regional Index
Ontario Provincial - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster