Prediction Changed
1:05 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Niagara West—Glanbrook
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Stoney Creek (53.2%)
Jennifer F. Mossop
Erie-Lincoln (30.8%)
Tim Hudak
Niagara Centre (16%)
Peter Kormos
Hamilton Mountain (0.1%)
Hon Marie Bountrogianni

2003 Result (redistributed):

07 09 12 KJ
I have to go with the sheep on this one. No way Tim loses this riding. He's about as safe as Kormos and Bradley in two other Niagara ridings.
07 09 09 A.S.
So, with this latest redistribution, Tim Hudak's lost *everything* that first got him elected to Queen's Park in '95--Fort Erie, Port Colborne, even friggin' Wainfleet. And, good riddance; if he ran within those boundaries, he'd be long gone by now, possibly after but a single term. Now, Hudak's as good as a retro-CSR leadership frontrunner in waiting in case John Tory chokes on the ghost of Bill Davis. Still, even within new boundaries I wouldn't guarantee 50% for Hudak, if only because Dean Allison didn't make it that far (but if it's a PC/FCP united right, then...)
07 07 28 ML
The only riding in the Ontario where attending a ?Canadians for Bush? rally is an asset, not a liability. Hudak will win this riding handily.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is the most conservative riding on the Niagara peninsula. While Grimsby, Glanbrook, and Pelham are not as conservative as Lincoln and West Lincoln, they are more conservative than Port Colborne which was moved out of this riding so the re-distribution won't hurt Tim Hudak's chances. In fact I expect Tim Hudak to get over 50% this time around.
07 04 05 Martin
Perhaps the best lock the Torys have in the province. Not only will riding redistribution help Tim Hudak (goodbye Fort Dreary and Port Colbourne) the fact that Hudak is now an established Tory front bencher - and their best media spokesman provincially will provide him with his biggest margin of victory yet. If Dean Allison can win this by 10,000 votes federally - it will be interesting to see how far Tim Hudak will stretch that plurality.
Hudak in a walk - regardless of the provincial results.
07 03 29 Robert W. Gilmour
No matter what sacrificial lamb the liberals offer, NWG goes Hudak blue. It doesn't matter if it's the former Mayor of Hamilton, the former Chair for the Region of Niagara, a former Lincoln town councilor or a monkey in a red jump suit, Niagara-West Glanbrook goes Tory in an almost plurality!

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