Prediction Changed
11:48 PM 10/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

York North (62.6%)
Julia Munro
Vaughan-King-Aurora (37.4%)
Hon Greg Sorbara

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
Just to clarify: IM PRETTY CONFIDENT KLEES WILL WIN. However, here is an alternate possibility that I will share:
Now, using the 2003 boundaries puts the Liberals ahead by 3-4%. Now obviously Frank Klees running here giving the PCs the better candidate. Provincial trends seem to show that the vote will be similar to last election. Now Klees had alot to do with the religious funding announcement from Tory, which is clearly unpopular almost everywhere, could be a reason to vote him out. Another thing, the FCP are running here this time and not in 2003 and theyll get around 1-2% of the votes pretty much directly from Klees. He could also be seen as a throwback to the Harris years, which is clearly a negative thing. Another thing is that he left his old riding completely behind from the last 2 elections and is in a new riding, even though it encompasses parts that he used to run in before in 1995. Maybe Frank Klees time has run out and the Liberals will squeak out a win here.
Again IM PRETTY CONFIDENT KLEES WILL WIN. However if he does get upset, well you heard it here first.
07 10 08 Mike L
Klees is the odds-on favorite to become the next leader of the PC party after Tory loses his seat and the election. Klees would give voters a much clearer choice between the PC party and the Liberals. Klees would win this riding even if he was running against Belinda Stronach, so there should be no doubts about his chances this time.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Unlike Markham, which is closer to Toronto and is seeing more lower-middle class voters move to within city limits, these two cities of Newmarket and Aurora are farther away from the city. In order to make it ‘worth it’ with regards to the drive in, you’d need a pretty good job – something that people in this riding tend to have. This is where upper-middle class people come to live while working in their downtown office buildings. The number of them increases with time, and hence, only strengthens the hand of the PC Party. People might talk about Stronach here, but I say she’s a non-factor. The candidate is Klees. People might think he’s a right-wing wacko, but take a look at the last leadership election results for the PC Party. Klees supporters broke 2-1 for Tory, not Flaherity. If Klees can get support from moderates in the leadership race, he can do it in the general election. I for one am calling for this hometown boy to be re-elected.
07 10 02 binriso
Frank Klees might be looking at a possible succession to Tory after this election. Thats *if* he wins his seat. While i give him a definite advantage im a little hesitant to call it yet.
07 09 19 A.S.
Ah, Frank Klees, what a card. Raising the medical user-fee issue; and such speaking-his-mind might as well help him more than it'll hurt him (cf. Cheryl Gallant federally). As for Klees running here, it's less of a parachute than a homecoming (i.e. Newmarket-Aurora is virtually the same as his 1995-elected York North seat, sans King Township). While the notional '03 results are skewed by the Sorbara default factor in Aurora, this should still be viewed in strategic dead-heat terms; and yes, when it comes to 2007 as opposed to 1995, something about a Reform-a-Tory such as Klees bidding to represent Belindaville seems slightly askew. Not askew enough to be implausible, though.
07 08 25 Andrew Lai
I don't really understand how this can be even considered too close to call. Frank Klees is a very popular man here in my riding of Newmarket-Aurora, and this area leans conservative provincially. Frank Klees will be painting the riding of Newmarket-Aurora Tory Blue on October 10th.
07 08 07 Marto
Surprised this one is still listed as TCTC - Love him or hate him - Frank Klees will win this riding with ease. The guy has a high profile - and as the education critic for the Tory's, he is getting a whole lot of coverage on the faith based schools initiative - which plays well in his area.
07 07 26 The Jackal
With Frank Klees a likely successor to John Tory as PC leader and with this being a weak riding provincially for both the Liberals and NDP expect Mr.Klees to win big here.
07 07 13 Rural Analyst
Frank Klees to take the seat. This is an affluent, fiscally conservative but socially liberal riding for the most part. That makes John Tory the perfect leader for this new riding, even if it hurts a lot in rural Ontario. Frank Klees made the right move in running here, even being somewhat socially conservative. The Liberals won't be able to respond unless Belinda Stronach moves to provincial politics.
07 06 27 dragonflypills
With the boundaries coming into alignment with the federal constituency, this will be a tough riding to call. Old York North has been solidly Tory for years, but shedding the rural outskirts surrounding Newmarket and absorbing the highly affluent and progressive Aurora makes this highly competitive for both the Tories and Grits.
Looking at this riding federally it's quite clear that this riding has strong small l tendencies: Belinda Stronach just barely won the only for the Tories with a vocally progressive social platform. When she crossed the floor the Liberals, she won this riding by a much larger margin.
Now take into account the PC's shift to the centre under John Tory, Klees' long but sometimes dubious history in the Harris cabinet, strong resentment towards the Grits over broken election promises, and apparently no Liberal candidate announced yet, this will be a head-to-head race, with an early tilt towards the Tories.
As for Northern's assertions that this is a (1) northern Ontario (2) working class riding (3) where Red Tories have never been competitive...Well, you only need to look at a map, demographics and past election results to know that he is categorically wrong/misinformed on all three counts.
07 05 13 free_thinker
Many people don't realize that Frank Klees is actually from this riding. I was quite surprised that he did not challenge Belinda Stronach federally in the last election. He is the single candidate that could have won that seat against her for the tories. Frank will take this riding easily. He has a solid reputation in York region and is well known and liked. This will go to Klees, a potential cabinet minister, by at least 5000 votes.
07 05 11
Expect an easy win for Frank Klees. He is everywhere in the media and has a strong reputation in York Region.
07 05 07 Angry Ontarian
Under these boundaries, the new riding of Newmarket-Aurora went Liberal by just over 1,000 votes. However I believe the Tories have the best shot here. 1) Former PC leadership contender Frank Klees is the PC candidate. 2) Liberal votes in Aurora may have actually been for Greg Sorbara. 3) the riding is WASP/affluent.

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