Prediction Changed
10:58 PM 05/10/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Mississauga South
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
COLE, KEN
Green
JOHNSTON, DAVID
Progressive Conservative
PETERSON, TIM
Liberal
SOUSA, CHARLES
Family Coalition
TOTEDA, SAMANTHA

Incumbent:
Mississauga South (91.2%)
Tim Peterson
Mississauga Centre (8.8%)
Hon Harinder S. Takhar

2003 Result (redistributed):
16461
42.77%
16986
44.13%
3409
08.85%




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07 10 09 binriso
156.34.212.190
Trying to comment on all the suggested close races here:
To be honest, I think Peterson can lose easily here he barely won in 03 and the Liberals do have a really strong candidate against him. It could tip either way, but it’ll go Liberal by a hair and a recount. It’s kinda weird saying that Peterson will win, because his family is one of, if not the most important and famous Liberal-supporting families in Ontario. Calling for him to win as a PC, seems a little odd so i just can’t do it.
07 10 09 Richard
74.110.200.201
I would like to assure you that Clarence Petersen is alive and well. I have had several interesting and enlightening conversations with him and his wife Marie recently. I also had the pleasure of putting a large Liberal sign on their lawn!
07 10 07 Old Willowdaler
99.233.14.35
Ian is right on the Matthews connection which is even more ironic if one thinks about it as the sister-in-law is now a Liberal MPP. Neither is working this seat for him but Ian remeber BLOOD is thicker than water. Myself I really wonder how Clarence (his father) as he looks down from above after years of being the sacrifical Grit in Blue London
07 10 07 Ian
216.75.189.11
What I would really like to know if his brothers - David and Jim - are campaigning for him?
Considering the fact that David Peterson's sister-in-law - Deb Matthews - the Liberal MPP from London North Centre (who is Shelley Peterson's sister) is running in the riding that David Peterson once held a portion of.
Deb Matthews comes from a Conservative family - her father (Don Matthews) was a primary fundraiser for the Progessive Conservative Party from the 1980's through to the early 1990's. Yet she is a ‘Liberal’
Moreover, Tim Peterson seems to be the ‘goof’ of the family. I don't think that either David Peterson or Jim Peterson would be dissappointed if Tim Peterson lost the election.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
99.233.14.35
Okay perhaps I was UNCLEAR last posting the reference to Tim Peterson running to replace John TOry was a JOKE!!!!! I have heard from 4 people in the last 24 hours this repeated back to me as if it was true. READ THIS CLOSELY.... I WAS JOKING this is not serious and I dont know how my posting here became Peterson CLan insider said.. FINAL TIME I was joking I have NO reason to believe Tim will run for the PC leadership!!
07 10 02 Old Willowdaler
99.233.14.35
Notwithstanding some of the uncharitable comments made against Tim I think he will actually hold this for the Tories. I know the entire Peterson Clan and was close to eldest brother Jim (Willowdale MP). The fact is that this is still a very Tory riding and Tim snatched it away from Marland some of this of course was related to the middle brother -David- Being the ex-premier and the elder a Martin Minister and close confident. Clearly people knew that Tim's family was far more powerful they he was and that despite his short comings his family carried weight. I will not comment on Tim's short comings as I dont think they are really relevant. The only thing that could swing this seat over is the ill conceived decision by John TOry on funding faith schools and now his flipflop. This part of Mississauga still possess a large section of FOOF's(Fine Old Ontario Families)who will were responsible for the fall of the tories in 85 and will not take John Tory's proposal too kindly. If the Tories are going to hold (or is it a retake??) in Miss it will be this seat despite the comments hereto about Timmy's personality. I think he will win by 1000-1500 votes. Who knows given the fact John Tory will lose his seat and this election maybe Tim Peterson will run for the PC leadership and turn out to have been brilliant afterall having foreseen the PC's turn was next time. Okay thats far fetched but hey stranger things have happened -case and point a Peterson becoming a PC!
07 09 27
72.140.204.233
This one'll go Tory. It's always voted Tory with the exception of '03. The discontent with McGuinty should make it an easy win for Peterson.
07 09 24 thebobert
142.108.72.95
McGuinty was smart not to reward Peterson with a Cabinet post just because of who his brother is. The man is a political scandal waiting to happen. Assuming that he wins his seat and that the Tories win the election I think you'll find Mr. Peterson either in a very low level Cabinet post or along the back bench once again. I wonder if he'll flip to NDP next?
07 09 13 Andrew Cox
74.120.86.22
Liberal... um, pick-up? Regain? Un-floor-cross?
1) I know Tim Peterson. Tim Peterson is an acquaintance of mine. And he is no Jack Kennedy. In fact, he isn't even a Ted Kennedy. Sorry, but it has to be said. Tim's a big goof. His sparse attendance in the legislature was divided between napping and playing with his blackberry. A meeting with him is like trying to brief a child with attention deficit disorder on tax policy. No one who has ever had a conversation with him longer than 10 minutes has come away with anything but amusement at this befuddled, Chris Farley-esque meatball. Except for one thing: man, he can play squash. For a guy his size, he is really light on his feet. That's all a long-winded way of saying that the day Tim crossed the floor was the day the Liberals actually had a chance of winning Mississauga South in 2007.
2) Charles Sousa is a big gun with RBC who will be able to fundraise well. He is a leader in the Portuguese community and on the board at the Credit Valley hospital. No one will compare him to Chris Farley.
3) The demographics here have been changing slowly, but surely.
The riding's traditional waterfront mansions and south of the QEW four-bedroom Edwardian homes are being off-set by an influx of apartment dwelling multi-ethnic voters as the riding intensifies and "the suburbs" becomes a relative concept in the west-end of the GTA. No longer as overwhelmingly white and upper-middle-class, the riding ditched 18 year veteran MPP Margaret Marland in 2003, a big symbol of the change here.
4) The Liberals have a relatively easy time allocating resources in the Western GTA. Most of Peel is safe, with a couple exceptions. Oakville looks fine and the Etobicoke is safe. However, the PCs will need to spread their resources throughout the region hoping for a breakthrough at the provincial level that will put more seats into play, because these seats are their only road to a majority.
5) The NDP is a relative non-factor here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish behind the Greens here or in Oakville, both areas with very low public sector union membership but high environmental concern
6) My gut and anecdotal evidence tell me the riding doesn't see Peterson's floor-crossing as a matter of conscience, like Toni Skarica's resignation in 2000 in ADFA. Rather, I think they see it as a bit of a wounded ego thing, brought on by not being listened to. I don't expect Peterson to bring any extra votes on "being principled" but that the Liberal grassroots will be extra-motivated to punish a "turncoat" and that it could be that simple dynamic that makes the difference.
07 09 10 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Fundamentally speaking, Tim Peterson has about as much chance of winning (or losing) here as a PC as he did as a Liberal. While boundary changes favour the Tories, demographic trends favour the Liberals--that is, if you repeated '03 in '07, the notional Tory and Liberal numbers might be reversed. Peterson-the-Liberal could have won with a photocopy of '06's federal 44Grit:40CPC; Peterson-the-PC might reverse those figures. Or maybe, reverse everything, and have Peterson *losing* by those differentials. However it all stacks up, it's going to be closer than gloating return-to-riding-tradition Tories are counting on...
07 09 05 M.
216.129.223.254
Tim Peterson will win easily here. HE crossed the floor to secure that win.
07 09 03 Nick J Boragina
74.13.131.141
Jumping ship works unless there is a huge backlash - and there is none here. This crossing of the floor will work to the MPP's benifit, and the PC's benifit too. Also, the redistributed results would have had a PC win here last time. In 2003 the tories crashed hard, and all the polls (for years) have been saying that will not happen again. For the tories to lose any seats they won in 2003 (even if by redistribution) is a silly idea and faulty logic. I dont see any good reason why this riding will not go PC.
07 08 29 BPetrie
128.100.158.28
Until last election this riding always went Conservative, including 1987 when David Peterson (Tim's bro) won the province by a landslide. Tim Peterson knows this and jumped to save his hide. What is surprising is that John Tory welcomed him in. If anything, Tim is a liability. However, is doesn't matter. Unless Tory totally blows this election and gives Dalton another landslide majority victory, this riding will return to the Conservatives. This has got to be the safest Tory pick up in the province.
07 08 21 Rebel
74.104.93.220
Mississauga South is the most affluent of the Mississauga ridings and, as noted, went Liberal by only a small margin last time. Polls are showing a consistent PC bias amongst high income voters and this should translate into a PC win in this riding...
07 05 28 Joey Fenton
64.229.218.95
First, Angry Ontarian should check his/her facts; Tim Peterson won by 234 votes not 100 votes. To suggest that Tim Peterson will win because of unpopular tax increases is somewhat odd because he enthusiastically voted for those tax increases. Tim Peterson can't deny his record of support for the health care tax. He has also won because a number of local Conservatives sat on their hands in the last election and Tim Peterson had the help of a number of prominent Liberals including his brothers. None of whom will be helping him this time. Local Conservative activists were both annoyed and fed up with Margaret Marland because she endorsed the Canadian Alliance candidate in the previous federal election. Tim Peterson will not be able to count on legions of Conservative volunteers because local Tories were upset that his candidacy was imposed on them. They realize that the only reason Tim is a Conservative candidate has to do with his desire to sit in Cabinet and not his desire for less government involvement. To suggest that a man who grew up in a Liberal family could suddenly go from believing in Stuart Mill to believing in Rand or Burke is fanciful at best. If Tim does win, it will be razor thin, but I suspect the Liberals could take this riding.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Tim Peterson's decision to run under the PCs may be somewhat opportunistic, but this is a very safe Tory riding provincially. Prior to 2003, it hadn't gone Liberal since 1934 and had the current boundaries been used, Margaret Marland would have held the riding in 2003. This is a swing riding federally, but a PC one provincially.
07 04 06 JC
207.188.65.7
Huge screw up by the Progressive Conservatives here, they are not going to win thanks to Tim Peterson switching, the truth is him switching has just destroyed the chances of the Conservatives winning this seat. The Liberals are going to hold this one.
07 03 29 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
Its GAME OVER for the Liberals in Mississauga South. Tim Peterson, incumbent Liberal MPP, and brother to former Premier David Peterson has left the party to sit as an independent. He will run as the CONSERVATIVE candidate in the coming election.
07 03 24 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
My hunch is PC MPP Margaret Marland should have won last time. Until 2003, Mississauga South was Tory to the core, then went Liberal by only 100 votes. Lots of well-off/WASP constituents here who are angry about Liberal tax hikes and broken promises.

Mississauga South will be among the first ridings to to turn blue on October 10th.



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