Prediction Changed
12:08 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (77.8%)
Maria Van Bommel
Perth-Middlesex (19.7%)
John Wilkinson
Elgin-Middlesex-London (2.5%)
Hon Steve Peters

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Sorry to say I have to agree with Liberal bashing RyanOntario on Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. The Liberals are going to lose a few seats in rural Ontario this time and this will be one of them. There just isn't enough of an urban centre anywhere in this sprawling riding to give Van Bommel anywhere near the votes she'd need to hang on. Monte McNaughton is a good old boy and the good old boys in this riding will send him to Queen's Park by 1500 votes. Look for Monte to quickly join Bill Murdoch and Randy Hillier as the Tory ratpack in the new legislature.
07 10 06 Nick J Boragina
In a riding that has a narrow margin like this one is expected to have, then we could well see the FCP vote be what loses it for the PC Party. I know the FCP candidate here, and even he acknowledges the PC candidate is strong.
07 09 23 RyanOntario
pc gain , as this is one of the ridings which has been conservative over the years at provincial or federal levels. and this week i noticed Tory actually visited this riding during a swing thru this region.
going to have to say Monte Mcnaughton has an edge over liberal Maria Van Bommel . but will have to see how the final weeks play out and if london area moves one way or another.
07 09 13 tcm
The hardest working candidate I have ever seen the PC's have focused on this seat taken workers from the Sarnia Lambton race and are determinded to make Monte the new face of Conservatism in Ontario. The NDP are running the same candidate and she will increase her vote enough to send Maria away after one sad term.
07 09 10 Philip Shaw
The farm economy and all aspects of agriculture dominate Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. It's surely been a topsy turvey ride on the agricultural policy front since the last election. When the Liberals signed onto the APF (Agricultural Policy Framework) with their federal colleagues millions of dollars left LKM. The riding was an incubator of farm unrest as several farm rallies were held in protest over the last few years. However, the Liberals did an about face with their acceptance of the Risk Management Policy developed by the Ontario Grains and Oilseed Committee just before this election. It was a gutsy move and about the only instance I can think of where a government outside of Quebec has decided to ?stand up to the US farm bill.? Maria Van Bommell will surely be a strong candidate with deep roots in the agricultural community.
The Conservatives nominated Monte McNaughton described to me as a ?breath of fresh air? from one local farmer. He said that with regard to Monte McNaughton's fresh face and his lack of baggage with regard to the past history of the agricultural policy politics which affected the farm economy here. The Conservatives also support RMP (Risk Management Policy) and they've said they'll increase agricultural funding in the future.
The NDP and the Greens surely could make some noise. Howard Hampton has toured the riding meeting with farmers late last fall. It should be quite a race.
Will farmers mobilize more rallies during this campaign? I don't know. A solid agricultural safety net to combat uneven farm revenues is vitally important to the LKM economy. It would seem in 2007 everybody realizes that.
07 08 23 A.S.
She had a reasonably sturdy win in '03, but Maria Van Bommel epitomizes the kind of backbench McGuinty landslide Liberal in rural SW Ontario that the PCs--esp. now with the reflected glory of federal Tory representation--will be looking at with slurpy chops, indeed. And honestly, Monte McNaughton does seem a promising salt-of-the-earth young turk type who'd invigorate the PC caucus even in opposition (much like a lot of the proto-Team Harris in 1990). Add to that the rural bible-belt undercurrent that's offered a lot of FCP vote in the past, and this might be one of the 10 or even 5 likeliest PC pickups in Ontario--but a real paradoxical blow to whatever brand-broadening John Tory's trying to achieve if PC picks up seats like this while remaining shut out of the 416...
07 04 27 J Adams
McNaughton has the energy to return Lambton-Kent-Middlesex to the Tories. A PC Riding during the Harris-era, McNaughton has the benefit of adapting Shipley's successful team into his own. Provided he can raise some funds, I see no reason why this riding would remain Liberal. McNaughton wins.

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