Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Waterloo-Wellington (75.3%)
Ted Arnott
Kitchener Centre (17.2%)
John Milloy
Cambridge (7.5%)
Gerry Martiniuk

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 06 lrs
I have only been in parts of south end Kitchener ( a poorer part of area too and Liberal signs more evident did not see NDP signs - have not been in rural area- will be close and really no clue who will win here - margin less than 500 votes either way- betting Liberal trend in polls pulls Liberal over the top
07 10 05 DTC
I think Pendergast and Harris will be close, but I think Harris is stronger where more people South Kitchener. The Liberal has ties in the rural areas (read: conservative); while the Progressive Conservative has ties to the urban areas (read: liberal). It looks to me like a wash. For life experience and rural community contacts, Pendergast wins. For business acumen, youth and new ideas, and urban community contacts, Harris wins.
07 10 03 seasaw
We better hold our breath for this one. It is true the Tory candidate Michael Harris, is a strong candidate, and travelling across the riding, you see that Michael Harris is winning the sign war. It is , however, too early to call this one. There are a lot of Liberals in this riding, and the Tory vote may stay home. Don't forget, that this riding, elected Lynne Myers, a Liberal, in three federal elections and prior to the arrival of Elizabeth Witmer ( parts of this riding used to be a part of Witmer's riding ), it sent Liberal Herb Epp, for a good many years to Queens Park. It'll be very intersting to see how this one unfolds.
07 10 03 DTC
Okay...I have been hedging the prediction but I am feeling more comfortable giving this one to Michael Harris. I think it will be tighter than noted though. Name recognition of a Vice Principal goes a long way, but who really likes the VP anyway. Mr. Harris seems to be a free thinker with his own opinion, in the vein of other PCs from the Waterloo Region. John Tory's reverse on school funding will help Harris, although it may hurt Tory in the bigger picture. As for the lawn signs...Harris still has Pendergast by a large margin.
07 10 29 A REAL Kitchener Voter
First off, yes the Liberals are running a principal from a rural hamlet in the riding but since when does that matter? Parents won't necessarily vote for a candidate because she happens to be a principal in their kids' school -- especially in what is traditional bedrock Tory country. Also, ‘Kitchener Voter’ forgets that rural communities aren't drone-like and don't vote as a block. It's not like the entire populations of St. Clements, St. Jacobs, Wilmont and all the other communities get together one night and say ‘Well hey, one of ours is running this time; maybe we should vote for her!’
Remember though that there are a great deal of private Christian schools in this area, well attended by the local inhabitants and far greater than the provincial median. This might even leak into the riding to the north/east/south of the riding, Kitchener Centre. If nothing else, the communities around here have more tolerance for Christians than the GTA and won't be as quick to dismiss the school funding issue since their friends/families/neighbours have kids going to these schools and they see first hand the inequality and unfairness of the current system.
Outside of the schools funding issue, this riding will simply vote PC because that party is the natural perch for the people in this area. Expect the Liberals (at 43% according to today's Canwest poll) to do a little bit worse than last time if anything if current poll numbers hold. The welfare strip along the south side of the Conestoga parkway just isn't big enough to compete with the sway of the outlying communities!
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
This riding will be hard to pick up for the Liberals any day. Given that the PC Party is expected, even in the worst of days, to pick up a dozen seats, then seats like this one, that they won last time, that will stay with the PC Party. Of the two ridings in the city of kitchener, this one is much more likely to elect a Tory. I expect it to do just that.
07 09 27 Kitchener-Conestoga Resident
Contrary to what DTC thinks Mark Cairns is not as a weak of a candidate as the Grits wish he would be. After all he beat a prominent union leader in a hard fought nomination fight. That accomplishment speaks for itself. Leeanna Pendergast is a respectable candidate and her time spent as an educator will win her some votes among teachers. However, Michael Harris is the strongest candidate of them all. As an executive with Johnson Controls he has a strong business background that has caused many voters regardless of there political persuasions to the come to the same conclusion.
07 09 26 DTC
Michael Harris has done a fantastic job of getting people to put signs on their lawns in south Kitchener. I still have a problem with his name and I'm not sure if I want to elect someone who couldn't win a seat on city council. Pendergast has recognition as a teacher/VP in the rural parts of this riding making her a force over a greater area. If Harris can get support in south Kitchener to match his lawn sign support (I haven't seen a single Liberal sign anywhere in Doon/Brigadoon), he might win. If you look at resume and experience...Harris is a distant second.
07 09 23 Kitchener Voter
This is going to be a close race despite the Tories treating it like an automatic pickup. Pendergast was not appointed, nor was Rogers prohibited from seeking the nomination. I suppose the person below should check their sources instead of shouting hearsay. With the addition of some strong Liberal parts of Kitchener, as well as Pendergast's relationship with the rural community through her years of vice-principal at Elmira DSS and WODSS, this riding will go Liberal on October 10th. A weak NDP candidate also contributes to this position. NDP voters will not take Cairs seriously and their votes will swing to Pendergast. When you compare the life experiences of Harris and Pendergast, it goes with age. As well, Harris does not have the direct knowledge of the key issues (education and health care) like Pendergast does. This riding is going Liberal.
07 09 14 nesooite
Open riding with Ted Arnott not electing to run again. Both Liberal and PC candidates are not exactly name turners. One would think that this might be a target riding for the Liberals (urban, university town), but I think the Tories strong base will allow them to hold.
Editor Note: Mr. Arnott is seeking re-election in Wellington—Halton Hills.
07 09 11 JO
This riding is going PC. Michael Harris ran for Kitchener City council during the last municipal election and narrowly missed defeating a Galloway for the first time in over a decade.
Michael has positive name recognition in the Kitchener portion of the riding and his rural background will appeal to the rest of the riding. While there is no question that some people cringe at the name ?Harris? he has done an excellent job of getting out there and defining himself as a member of John Tory?s team. Also, you have to remember that this riding has been PC for quite a while and there are many people that love the idea of putting a Harris sign on their lawn again.
07 09 03 DTC
All I can say is that I don't think anyone wants someone named 'Michael Harris' anywhere near Queens' Park. The guy may be the best quality of person in the world, but I think his name will sink him.
07 08 28 519 Voter
First of all the Liberals had appointed Leeanna Pendergast after the central party told Jim Rogers that he could not run. This caused a great deal of division and bitterness in the local riding association that had been hoping to have been able to democratically elect their candidate. Instead they had the sister-in-law of John Milloy forced upon them.
As for Michael Harris he has a strong base of support in both suburban Kitchener and the rural regions from which to work with. Unlike the last two federal campaigns the Liberals will not have an incumbent to work with. Without that advantage it will be a steep mountain for them to climb and likely one they will not hit.
07 08 27 TF
Although some may consider this an automatic PC pickup, i dont think so. The Liberals have selected Leeanna Pendergast as their candidate in this riding. She has been an educator for 20 years or more and has taught in High Schools all across the riding. Although Michael Harris is a good candidate, this will be close one come E-Day. I think that when its all said and done, Leeanna's role in the community is going to make the biggest impact. I am confident this riding will go Liberal.
07 08 19 A.S.
Kitchener-Conestoga is technically 'Tory-safe' mainly by virtue of its primary constituent parts having been Tory-safe; but had current boundaries and riding-choices been in place in '03, it might well have been an open-seat Liberal pickup. (And of course, back in True Grit Nixon-Peterson days it would have been safely Liberal; but then, so was Witmer's Waterloo.) So, I'll hedge on a Tory prediction--though yes, they're acting like they have this one in the bag, and hey, the Ontario Legislature could always use a PC MPP named Mike Harris...
07 07 11 519 Voter
The tories are taking this riding on October 10. Now mid way through July and the Conservatives remain the only party with a nominated candidate.
Michael Harris has deep roots in both in the rural and suburban parts of the riding. This will pay rich dividends in a riding which has a history of voting in long time residents. One needs to just look federally at Lynn Myers in 2004 and Harold Albrecht in 2006 as two candidates who had the necessary rural roots needed to win this riding. Harris who grew up on a dairy farm will likewise prove to be a popular choice for the voters in the three townships. The farmers are already feeling ignored by the Liberals and if they needed just one more reason to go Conservative this would be it.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
A safe conservative riding to begin with and even the addition of more Kitchener polls shouldn't hurt the Tories as Ted Arnott is one of the most moderate MPPs so him along with Elizabeth Witmer, and Martiniuk will ensure the Waterloo region remains predominately PC. Kitchener Centre is the only Waterloo Region riding that is up for grabs.

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