Prediction Changed
10:21 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kitchener Centre
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Kitchener Centre (90.3%)
John Milloy
Kitchener-Waterloo (9.7%)
Elizabeth Witmer

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 06 Nick J Boragina
This riding has a strong enough Liberal trend for them to hold on. With the PC party polling *below* the total popular vote they received in the 2003 election, they’ll be hard pressed to win anything beyond the most marginal ridings. This is the only riding in waterloo that might go Liberal, you can expect them to dump their supporters in here to get the best result they can. I just don’t see the Tories having the power to sweep the Liberals out here.
07 10 06 lrs
should have been PC target seat but PC local campaign seems non existent -went to AC meeting and it was Liberal Milloy and Moffit fighting it out - in some sections of town NDP signs quite evident - have not seen this type of activity for many elections - battle for second place may be more interesting in this seat
07 10 02 Newbie
I'm a relative newbie to the constituency. Milloy is clearly winning the sign war (yes I know signs don't vote) and has been featured in numerous photo ops -- the school of pharmacy, medical school, expansion of the highway to Guelph, etc. There is an incumbency factor at work here, too. I'm surprised that this race is marked too close to call. Anybody living in the riding can see Milloy will win this one. I don't think John Tory's faith-based funding stuff played too well here, either.
07 09 26 Initial
You know, I'd really like it to be displayed in the above graphic who this race is between. It may be too close to call, but can the author of this site really believe it is between Milloy and Stanson? If the graphic showed it was too close to call between Milloy and Moffitt, I might believe it, based on the performance of those two. If the prediction is between Milloy and Stanson, the credibility of this prediction is compromised. Stanson stands no chance. Surely he will get some votes as the PC Candidate, but conservative voters (including at least one former candidate) at the televised debate were literally shaking their heads in disbelief, disappointment, and shame at the words that were coming out of Stanson's mouth. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole riding association has jumped off the K-Centre bandwagon for fear of implicating themselves in the scandal of having nominated him... Could they not have found somebody better? I can just imagine him all by himself at the Stanson fundraising gala advertised on the local radio as the ‘social and political event of the fall season.’ Laughable, indeed.
07 09 25 TF
Before the election began the PC's targeted this riding. However, at this point in the election, things have drastically changed. Stanson has proved to be a very poor candidate. Although Moffat is doing a pretty good job, Kitchener just is not NDP territory. Milloy has been on the news every night for the past 4 years as the only Government member in Waterloo Region. As well, the government has given our region more attention then we have ever received in the memorable past. Kitchener Centre is going Liberal and Milloy is going back to work on his second term.
07 09 25 JD
This will be another interesting one. The conservative candidate is a non-entity in this election. He has zero profile in the riding and had nothing to say at the debate last week except that he agreed with good points that Rick Moffitt made... The coverage in the record was dominated by the debate between Milloy and Moffitt. Stanson got one mention in the article, explaining that he stuck to short, scripted notes. One person in attendance that night said Stanson seemed to be reading his notes in the order they were printed on the page rather than in relation to the question asked.
As for Moffitt, he's come out swinging and his passion could pick up some considerable support. Milloy's campaigning on the McGuinty record, which will cost him some credibility. If it's going to be close, it will be between the NDP and the Liberals. The NDP and Hampton have been hammering away at the issue of manufacturing job losses and this is a community that has seen way more of its fair share of that in the last 4 years and the Liberals don't seem too worried about it. If the remaining local manufacturing sectar in the riding decided to make a collective point, Moffitt will be elected.
07 09 22 A.S.
Re the post-1990 Tory swing: don't blame it on evaporating FCP support because (a) the winning PC margins were larger than said evaporated support, and (b) FCP didn't exist before the mid-80s, and the Liberals still won this regularly. (Blame should instead go to the eclipse of that grand coalition of SW-Ontario-values interests that was Bob Nixon-era True Grit-ism--much of which would later find Harris Toryism perfectly amenable.) Considering the 'surprisingly' narrow Liberal margin (made notionally narrower still--perhaps deceptively so--by the annexation of Witmer turf), it's a wonder that the Tories have nominated someone so low-profile--and considering their saved deposit last time, I'd suggest that the NDP (with the President of the Waterloo Labour Council as their candidate) be taken seriously, too, at least as a PC-thwarting vote-stealer. That is, sure, KC is presently an isle of red in a sea of blue (due more to previous boundary and candidate configurations), but it's not necessarily as threatened by the blue as it appears--probably less so than a lot of other seats of similar margin...
07 09 14 nesooite
Similar to the other 2 KW ridings, this is a riding that is a target for the party not holding the seat although in this case it is a PC target. Malloy should be strong enough and this riding has become more urban to ensure that the Libs squeak this one out.
07 08 30 Joe
Kitchener Centre usually goes Liberal federally and provincially. The federal Liberal candidate was the one of two liberals in Waterloo Region who held their seats in the latest federal election. This riding should go liberal again.
07 08 23 Rebel
Hi TV...Good comments...?Long versus Strong?. Indeed, from the late 1960s to past the Davis years, Kitchener was indeed a Liberal stronghold (Cambridge was back and forth between PCs and NDP). However, from 1990 onwards, the region swung strongly to the PCs...For one reason, support for right wing socially conservative groups like the family coalition party evaporated and their votes went Tory...The PCs hung on well in 2003 and I believe they will come back strongly. But we will see...
07 08 22 T.V.
The area actually has a long Liberal tradition, going back through the decades of the Big Blue Machine. This will be a close race, but the Tory candidate is a complete political neophyte with zero name recognition, and Milloy is a very hard worker. Despite his relatively low profile and weak performance last time, he should hang on.
07 08 19 Rebel
This riding was widely suggested would go Liberal in a landslide in 2003 but the PC incumbent kept this to a narrow loss. With a strong PC candidate this time, the riding should swing back. The region has a strong PC tradition.

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