Prediction Changed
12:08 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Huron-Bruce (88.4%)
Carol Mitchell
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (11.6%)
Bill Murdoch

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
The Liberals are going to lose some seats in rural Ontario this election but Huron-Bruce won't be one of them. Here's the formula for a Carol Mitchel victory. Mitchell was a very popular mayor in the southern part of this riding and last time pulled traditional Tory support because of her municipal record. Then in the northern part of the riding the Liberals have poured billions of dollars into the Bruce nuclear plant. This means jobs at the plant and spin off jobs in the community. The result is a much higher than average Liberal vote in the north. Lets just say Bob Morley is not a very dynamic candidate for the Tories and end it there. The local Tory campaign never really got going this time around as their tradition support among the over 50, protestant crowd has slipped as a result of the party position on funding private schools. Look for Mitchell to win here by 3500 votes. I'm surprised there have been as many posts this time from desperate NDPers claiming they're going to finally win a seat in this part of the province. Maybe they've finally given up!
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
Close one here an initially I would have given it to Morley but given the antics of the PC campaign and the stand of the Murdoch (that speaks volumes as to the old stock PC types) to say I will vote it down you can see discontent here. This should have been an easy win for the PCs but now its a toss up. Think at this point that it will slide into the Liberal camp and look for a recount -500 either way is my gut
07 10 06 Charon
It's going to be a squeaker but Mitchell, for better or worse, is going to pull it off. She only won by 3k votes last time. This riding should have been easy pickings for the Tories. Morley was an excellent candidate but faith based schooling handed the riding to the Liberals on a platter.
07 09 27 binriso
Wrong riding there marvel, that statement has no weight here.
Going to be a really close one here, Im going out on a limb to predict a very close ~500 vote win for the Liberals, mostly based on the provincial trend, the FCP will pull 1000 votes away from the PC's(or maybe a few more) and incumbent's advantage regardless of how popular she is.
07 09 25 marvel
Murdoch has sealed the deal with his recent announcement RE: his plans to vote against any publicly funded faith-based school system. He has painted himself as a guy who speaks for his constituents despite party lines.
07 09 16 Johnny on the spot
Would that be the same Walkerton that Bill Murdoch won most of the polls in during the last election?
It is pretty funny reading people trying to create this mythology for Carol Mitchell. No one believes she works harder than anyone has, or is gods gift to Liberal fortunes in Huron-Bruce. People might vote for her, but very few people who have had any dealings with her ever say anything positive about her.
Someone that is so desperate that they send their sign crews out on the Labour Day weekend, does not feel all the secure. I had to drive from close to one end of the riding to the other on my way to London today. If the sign war reveals anything, and it usually doesn't beyond cash in a rural riding, then Mitchell is in the lead, having given herself an extra week, Klopp is second in sign placement and Morley is way behind. This is unusual as the Conservatives usually spend whacks of cash putting signs everywhere. Now admittedly sign coverage was spotty, but that's just an average sense.
Also all these Huron people that have no idea about the Bruce are pretty funny. I am trying to think of one person in Bruce County, or even northern Huron that is going to vote over the Credition sewers. Maybe they might be just as libel to vote against Carol thanks to her handling of the ambulance issue when she was on Council costing local taxpayers all kinds of money.
Still don't have a prediction for this riding, other than I expect it will be close. And that Dennis Valenta will do something in an all-candidates meeting that will end up in the news of the weird section.
07 09 14 A.S.
That note about the Crediton sewer project is interesting, and may carry more resonance than one realizes; after all, over at the other end of the riding, redistribution has added...Walkerton. (Which, incidentally, was a Liberal stronghold even before the water crisis.) Otherwise, this is a pretty typical '03 knife-edge rural-Ontario McGuinty pickup; though maybe less vulnerable than some, due to lingering Murray Elstonesque moderation. And Paul Klopp (or *any* NDPer, for that matter) will be lucky/happy to match his 24% losing total in 1995.
07 09 13 HCH
I predict the substantial number of gullible, misinformed Huron County voters will make or break Conservative candidate Morley's chance of being elected in Huron-Bruce. There's plenty of die-hard Conservatives in Huron County who I'm sure would have a heart attack (OHIP collapse!!) if they knew their ‘Red Conservative’ leader supports same-sex marriage among other Liberal-slanted views. The muzzled PC candidates are playing ‘follow the leader’ so Tory's performance will make or break Morley's chances as well.
Liberal candidate Mitchell hopes to win the riding based on sprinkling record amounts of $$$ around Huron-Bruce. She and her staff haven't been very ‘user friendly’ in her first term as an MPP.
In light Morley's lacklusture record in municipal politics, I feel Mitchell deserves another term to see if she can build long term opportunities based on the pre-election $$$ she has delivered to Huron-Bruce.
NDP would have gained a few more votes had they nominated the colourful Steve Webster instead of municipally-defeated Deputy-Mayor Klopp.
Green Party candidate Serda proudly displays a photo on her website with Al Gore, the private jet-setting polluter who is going to save the environment - one million dollar speaking engagements at a time!
07 09 13 RedHuron
This is a tight race, but Carol wins in a squeaker. Carol whether you like her or not, has represented this riding very honorably and has worked very hard. Carol was an early supporter of the now implemented RMP when it wasn't popular with the minister and is the only liberal that admits that the Ontario government still owes farmers for the disastrous years in 2005 and 2006. While Rob Morley is a good candidate, he can and usually comes across as an arrogant know it all, and his record as mayor of South Huron is poor at best. He was part of the council that approved the sewer project in Crediton, which is not finished and was installed haphazardly with many faults. Paul Klopp is very well respected in farm circles, but being he is representing the NDP, puts him at a huge disadvantage with the baggage of the previous NDP government.
07 09 06 Junior
Informed is off base a bit. There were not 22 candidates to replace Morley municipally. There was a larger than normal slate of candidates for various positions on South Huron council, but a lot of candidates were part of an 'unofficial' special interest group that all failed to get a seat. Morley is a straight-up, stand up guy and is generally liked by those that know him.
Klopp is similar to Morley in personality, honest and decent, and can hardly be faulted for missteps during his time in QP with Rae. Like most of that government, he never intended to win and wasn?t prepared. He is very bright though, and would have gotten better with time.
Mitchell busts her butt, and is a very clever and astute pol, but carries a lot of baggage and is vulnerable. But it will take a ton of hard work by Morley, mainly in getting face to face with as many people as possible, to beat her. His strength is that he is more likeable, but if he doesn?t touch enough voters, Carol wins. She's smart, cagey and well organized.
This one will be as close as the province is, and will likely be a bellwether as usual. A standout campaign by Carol or Rob could see an opposition MPP here, but it?s a longshot.
Sorry Paul, no chance. Go back municipal in 3 years, County Council could use you!
07 08 24 Johnny on the spot
Anyone making a prediction in this riding is either smarter than me, or a pure partisan. All three major candidates have some strengths and major weaknesses.
To claim that everyone likes Carol Mitchell though is a laugh, some tolerate her, some loath her, for the rest she has made no impression. Developing a reputation as someone who ducks thorny issues is not a good way to go in this populist riding. Mitchell was elected thanks to the sweep and it will take a sweep to keep her in. The number of Ministers into the riding already smells like desperate shoring up.
Lots of latent Conservative support that would vote for a axe murderer if he was a Tory. However, the Conservative candidate has been all but invisible, especially in the Bruce part of the riding. With some work could easily threaten Mitchell.
Paul Klopp is a great guy, straight shooter, but it is... well, the NDP. Means trouble in the Bruce thanks to the nuclear issue. However, there is still a lot of positive vibe for him in Huron votes though? Hard to say - will take a big uptick in provincial NDP support. Last prov. election Grant Robertson, a complete and utter unknown in Huron, polled above 10% just on the force of personality so you never know I guess.
As the central campaign goes, so will this riding. It will be a bellweather this time out I think. My prediction- Top three within 10% if NDP fortunes rise provincially (which feels possible at this point - because almost no one actually likes McGuinty)). Green 5-6% tops, less is more likely as she is the worse candidate I have ever seen. Crazy guy Denis Valenta - blows up on stage and cold cocks someone.
07 08 20 Informed
Carol Mitchell should be pretty safe here. She has worked extremely hard for the riding and is well liked and respected by most of the ridings various groups, from farmers to nurses to municipal politicians. There has been an almost surreal amount of money delivered to the riding since 2003 and the local economy is booming thanks to Bruce Power in the north of the riding. Tory candidate is a failed former municipal politician (22 candidates to replace him in a town with less than 5,000 people is not a good sign of a former mayor?s competency) and the NDP is a former MPP with a spotty track record during his time in QP and who was banished from municipal council in 2006.
07 04 19 goblue
Carol Mitchell is toast! There are three quality candidates running for the conservatives. This riding is going back to the tories.

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