Prediction Changed
10:22 PM 06/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Mountain
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Hamilton Mountain (93.1%)
Hon Marie Bountrogianni
Hamilton West (6.9%)
Judy Marsales

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
The mountain should stay Liberal. It was the biggest win in Hamilton for the party in 03 and seems like it will be the only win for the party in Hamilton in 2007.
07 10 08 King of Kensington
To ‘I'm Never Wrong’ (sic): There is nothing ‘desperate’ about predicting an NDP victory here. If they don't take it this time it this time they will come very close. If you don't think the history of the riding is relevant (I only brought it up because it was mentioned that the NDP doesn't appeal to Mountain voters) at least the last federal result (fought on the same boundaries last year) should be relevant in which the NDP took it by a good margin. You keep citing this 15% figure as if it's a done deal. The latest Ipsos poll (Oct. 6) actually has the NDP at 18% and most polls in this campaign show the NDP polling well above last time. Another thing is that a province-wide figure fails to take into account the concentration of the NDP vote which doesn't take into account specific places - certainly the growth of NDP support in Hamilton has been more pronounced than elsewhere. While the Liberals will almost certainly get another majority they are bound to lose a few seats and this is a top-tier target for the NDP.
07 10 08 A.S.
'The federal Liberals lost this seat last time because they lost votes to a rising Tory party.'
Actually, thanks in part to a lower-profile candidate, CPC lost ground on the Mountain in '06, too. Also (and shades of the current provincial election?) the Liberal incumbent Beth Phinney wasn't running--though much more so than Bountrogianni, she'd probably have lost had she run again, anyway. So, in this particular seat, the Liberals lost votes to a rising *NDP*. You need to live up to your name, I'm Never Wrong...
07 10 08 I'm Never Wrong
Desperate NDPers like the King of Kensington love to talk about ridings they won 25 years ago. Ridings have changed boundaries, issues change. It doesn't mean anything that the NDP won seats decades ago. The Liberals are at 45 per cent in the polls right now. The NDP are at 15 per cent. Hamilton Mountain is going Liberal because of the province wide trend. The King just doesn't know this riding.
07 10 07 King of Kensington
Nick Boragina: I don't know where you get this idea that the NDP doesn't appeal to Hamilton Mountain voters. It has a very strong history of NDP. The NDP took it in the last federal election by 4000 votes - this was a much more comfortable victory than that of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. It also went NDP in the 1980 and 1984 elections and they only lost it to the Liberals by about a couple hundred votes or so in 1988. Provincially it was held by Brian Charlton from 1977 until 1995.
The Mountain may be suburban and less blighted than inner-city Hamilton but it far from an affluent riding. It is filled with blue collar union members who are totally comfortable voting NDP.
07 10 07 I'm Never Wrong
Interesting how Ryan@Ontario is all over this site and doesn't pick a single Liberal to win anywhere. You'd think the Liberals were in last place. Marie Bountrogianni actually does have a legacy in Hamilton Mountain. She saved the Henderson hospital, had the Bob Kemp hospice built, got $30 million to clean up Randal Reef and brought over $60 million in social service funding to Hamilton in four years. Anyone who knows anything about the Mountain knows that it's easily the strongest Liberal riding in the city. For the NDP to win they'd have to finish more than 20 points higher than their party status province wide and the Liberals would have to be at least 11 points lower than their provincial average. The federal Liberals lost this seat last time because they lost votes to a rising Tory party. Since John Tory's party is in a free fall, that won't happen this time. It really does come down to the numbers here and the numbers add up to a Liberal win.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
EPP made the right call here, Liberal. Up on the mountain people are not as ‘radical’ as they are in the rest of Hamilton. This is an area of sprawling residential subdivisions, dotted by shopping malls. Travel to the rest of Hamilton is made difficult by the size of the mountain (really a cliff) making this area geographically separate. If any area in the developed part of Hamilton were to go PC, this would be the one, but with the PC Party not really even close at this point, I don’t think that we have to worry about that this election. What is more realistic is that we should see the Liberals doing well here while the NDP struggles to connect with the middle class voters who live here.
07 10 05 Old Willowdaler
The Valeri/Copps dustup federally a few years back took some shine off the Liberal gem in Hamilton. The drop in the liberal vote will depend a lot on two factors (1) How many people translate that against the provincial liberals if that anger has not ebbed. (2) The whole issue of our resource and related industries being sold off piecemeal. One can expect some to turn to the NDP in the belief they can help protect the jobs and industry. I still think despite a new Liberal candidate the seat will stay red but at a much reduced margin as with the adjacent riding I think it will be closer to the provincial trend say 40% with the NDP at say the mid 30's
07 10 05 DL
There is no ‘Boutrogianni legacy’. She isn't on the ballot. People vote for the candidates running this time - the appeal of the outgoing MPP who is retiring is completely irrelevant. This is a whole new ball game with a clean slate. I think that the NDP is more likely to pick up Hamilton Mountain than HESC (though they could win there too). Chris Charlton won Hamilton Mountain by a solid margin of over 4,000 votes, while HESC was very, very close. I think the NDP base is larger in HM than in HESC.
07 10 03 thehamiltonian
Grits will take the mountain simply because of the legacy of Bountriogianni. Will be with a minority of votes, mind you, mostly because Hamiltonians seem to be exploring different areas when it comes to parties these days.
07 09 25 A.J.
With the appearance of three new candidates provincially one would assume that this riding could be a toss up. The Tories will hold a base but not do much better - Charters a former councillor who was not known for much of anything while on council (live in his old ward). The faith based school funding issue will sink the Tories in this riding. Many teachers live on Hamilton Mountain and when you combine that with the fact that they have abandoned the NDP, who are running a weak candidate here, and there are alot of Catholic voters who fear Tory will tinker with the public and Catholic schools - look for big Liberal win - spells trouble for Charlton (NDP) federally was well.
07 09 18 A.S.
Sophia Aggelonitis is about as well known as her predecessor was in 1995/99, if not more so. The question here is how prepared Hamiltonians are to repeat their federal NDP hat trick provincially, or whether that's overkill; in any case, if they wanna give the Grits a break *somewhere*, I'd agree that the Mountain appears the most McGuinty Liberal-amenable, if only because it's the most suburban and least Steeltowny. Or is it the most John Tory-amenable for said reasons? Then why, other than the default reason of this being Hamilton, is the NDP so strong here? Even suburban growth couldn't constrain Chris Charlton (at last!) in '06. So, is it a question of whether Mountain voters are prepared to support a Liberal who isn't Bountrogianni, or an NDPer who isn't Chris Charlton (or *any* Charlton)...
07 09 17 RyanOntario
Too close to call , this riding appears to be a 3 way race since the liberal mpp did not run again. Don't think either of the 3 main candidates are well know , so this makes it a tough riding to call , based on the previous results and nearby by-election in Hamilton East, but i'm leaning ndp currently especially after the nearby caledonia dispute .
07 07 27
This is a safe seat for the Liberals. It would have been safer had MPP Bountrogianni not stepped down but her replacement is the former head of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce and an entrepreneur. The federal NDP barely carried this riding in 2006 and will have difficulty this time around. Along with A-D-F-W, the only other seat the Liberals will win in Hamilton.
07 07 24 Peter Cassidy
Brain Adamcyk (pls check spelling) steelworker staff and a really nice guy, is the NDP candidate. Given the Liberals generally sinking in Hamilton-they lost out in every one of the 6 Hamilton federal seats in 2006 and none of the three female provincial incumbents are running again- and the NDP strength -they won three of the federal seats in 2006 including Hamilton Mountain - I would join the consensus and call this for the NDP.
07 07 02 A Rathbone
This riding is too close to call in my opinion.
Liberals lost a popular incumbent Cabinet Minister but the Liberal organization probably has some strength behind it still.
The NDP will probably be the recipient of at least half of the Anti-McGuinty anger in the riding.
With John Tory as leader and more progressive policies the Progressive Conservatives could capture this or at least make a strong showing if they run a popular candidate such as Tom Jackson who came within 3000 votes federally in 2004.
All in all too close to call
07 06 15 DL
Boutrogianni is quitting and is denouncing the manipulative way McGuinty's advisors have tied her hands on electoral reform. Between this and the big NDP win in this seat in the '06 federal election - an NDp win provincially is now very, very likely.
07 06 16 Marshall Howard Bader
With the resignation of the incumbent and the strength of the federal NDP here in the last election, this one is now just too close to call.
07 06 15 King of Kensington
Marie Bountrogianni is not running for re-election. With the ONDP polling consistently in the 20s, and with the swing against the Liberals in Hamilton, I'm calling this an NDP pickup.
07 06 15 Porter
Bountrogianni is now out. It is beginning to look like the Liberals might be in trouble in the entire Hamilton area. I guess it depends how strong the opposition candidates are but they are certainly acting worried.
>From the Hamilton Spectator:
'In a surprise development, Liberal cabinet minister Marie Bountrogianni and Liberal MPP Jennifer Mossop won't seek re-election when Ontario goes to the polls this fall.'
Their departures leave gaping holes in McGuinty's Hamilton ranks during the ramp-up to the Oct. 10 election. The exits may explain why the premier... has been courting Hamilton so assiduously.
The Liberals... face a number of strong challenges, will now be scrambling to find replacement candidates.
And the exodus may yet grow, as rumours continue to circulate Hamilton West Liberal MPP Judy Marsales may also take herself out of the race. Marsales could not be reached for comment.
07 06 15 Adam
As of today this seat is going to be in play... now all the Hamilton seats look like they are up from grabs by the NDP. Marie will not be running in october and this means that the Mountain is a key targeted and winable riding for the NDP. Nothing is for sure here, like everything in politics, but whom the NDP and the Liberals decide to nominatee will be a key factor. Having said that I am now willing to give this to the NDP; they hold this seat federally and look to see Chris Charlton campaigning all over, The NDP's sitting Hamilton member Andrea Horwath is, from what i can see, popular and a rising star in the party. There are rumblings of discontent in Hamilton (proven when the city went NDP federally), the protest vote naturally goes to the NDP in Hamilton as a tory vote is almost wasted in this working class, industrial city (read into that, hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs and the feeling of neglect had by Hamiltonians). I'm going to predict (early I know) all three ridings will send NDP MPP's to Queens Park.
07 06 09 King of Kensington
I'm going to call this one for the NDP. Since 2004 Hamilton has been trending away from the Liberals. The ONDP fared quite well here in relative terms last time and they are way up in the polls.
07 05 10 R.D.
Marie Bountrogianni is a high profile cabinet minister, but considering the relative ease with Chris Charlton took the corresponding federal riding for the NDP in 2006, Hamilton Mountain has got to be a top target for the provincial party. Of course now that Charlton's finally been elected after several attempts, it?s an open question who the NDP will put forward now?

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